When the 2024 NCAA Tournament field was announced on March 17, a total of 36 bids were awarded to at-large teams. But how many many of those 36 will be back in the 2025 NCAA Tournament? The most recent data suggests a significant chunk will wind up on the wrong side of the bubble in the season ahead.
Of the 36 at-large teams who made the 2023 Big Dance, 15 were left out in 2024. That’s a testament to how difficult it is to maintain high-level success in college basketball year over year. Among those who missed the 2024 tournament was a Miami program that made the 2023 Final Four and a Kansas State team that reached the 2023 Elite Eight.
Other strong brands such as Arkansas, Indiana and UCLA were in for 2023 but out for 2024. Making the tournament is tough, which is why Michigan State’s mark of 26 straight NCAA Tournament appearances, and Gonzaga’s stretch of 25 in a row are so impressive.
So which teams that made the 2024 NCAA Tournament as at-large teams are at risk of missing it in 2025? For this week’s Dribble Handoff, our writers are making their picks for which 2024 at-large teams won’t be back in the Big Dance this season.
Utah State
What Danny Sprinkle did last season at Utah State was so unexpected and awesome that the 47 year-old Washington native was able to catapult his career straight into the Big Ten, where he’s now coaching the Washington Huskies after just one season in the Mountain West.
It really was an incredible story.
Sprinkle went 28-7, secured a No. 8 seed in the NCAA Tournament and advanced the Aggies to the second round of the Big Dance for just the fifth time in school history — this after, at one point last offseason, having zero scholarship players in the program. To be clear, I’m not insisting Jerrod Calhoun, Utah State’s new coach, can’t or won’t get the Aggies back to the 68-team bracket; I’m often hesitant to put a ceiling on anybody. But if the assignment here is to identify a school that earned an at-large bid to the 2024 NCAA Tournament that might have a hard time earning another at-large bid to the 2025 NCAA Tournament, going with a MWC program ranked outside of BartTorvik.com’s preseason top-75 that just lost its head coach and two starters — among them Great Osobor, the leading scorer and rebounder — is probably a reasonable place to settle. — Gary Parrish
Nebraska
I think we’re going to have at least eight teams that received at-large bids last season that fall short of dancing in 2025. There’s a lot of options, but I’ll go with Nebraska because of the post-Keisei Tominaga hangover. The Japanese baller graduated as an all-time Husker and had such a powerful force on the program, I wonder how Fred Hoiberg’s team collects itself after making a rare NCAA Tournament run. (Rienk Mast leaving is also going to play a big factor here.) History has shown it’s hard to make consecutive NCAAs at NU. A lot of portal changeover and a lot of roles to be filled in an 18-team Big 12. Look around and you’ll see no other Big Ten teams listed here, but it’s highly likely a Nebraska or Northwestern or Wisconsin winds up in 10th, 11th, 12th or 13th place, which would likely equate to missing out on the NCAAs. — Matt Norlander
Texas
Coach Rodney Terry has some roster continuity with Chendall Weaver and Kadin Shedrick back — which is great — but unfortunately he has a lot of turnover that’s difficult to ignore. With Max Abmas, Dylan Disu, Tyrese Hunter and Dillon Mitchell gone, I think we’re underestimating just how big a challenge lies ahead for this Longhorns program. That’s the top four scorers from last season’s 21-win team not returning. And per data from EvanMiya.com, Shedrick and Weaver — the headliners who return — ranked sixth and eighth among regular players last season in the rotation, respectively, in the website’s BPR — a rating that reflects a player’s offensive and defensive impact.
It’d be one thing if Texas restocked the cupboard in a real way but I’m just as skeptical about how the pieces will fit in 2024-25 as I am about this team’s ability to deal with the losses. Five-star freshman Tre Johnson will have flashes that look like a future lottery pick. And transfers Jordan Pope, Tramon Mark and Arthur Kaluma should, in theory, be capable pieces to help offset the roster turnover in Austin, Texas. But just a capable and competitive team might not be enough to make it back to the NCAAs in a loaded Big 12. There will be chances every night to stack the resume and get back to the NCAAs just given the league’s depth and the ample opportunities it will afford the Longhorns, but I wouldn’t pencil them into the 68-team field automatically. Betting odds certainly don’t reflect as much right now, and you know what? Maybe they’re right. But this team I’d wager will struggle more than anticipated, and missing the tourney entirely could be in play. There’s a wide range of outcomes for this mostly-new team. — Kyle Boone
Colorado
Colorado coach Tad Boyle is coming off a career-best 26-win season and has taken the Buffaloes to six NCAA Tournaments through 14 seasons. However, as the Buffs transition from the Pac-12 to the Big 12, they are also going through a rebuild. Six of their top-seven scorers from last season are gone, and their replacements have a lot to prove. Senior guard Julian Hammond is the headline returner, and he started just five games last season.
While Hammond could be in for a breakout season as he takes on a larger role, there’s little proven high-major production on the roster. The top transfer is fifth-year guard Andrej Jakimovski, who averaged 7.1 points over four years at Washington State. But he’s never been a primary scoring option. Forwards Trevor Baskin and Elijah Malone each have some promise, but they are transferring in from non-Division I schools. The Buffaloes have finished below .500 only once under Boyle and have reached 20 victories 10 times under his direction. But this looks like it will be a dip year for his steady program. — David Cobb
Washington State
For the first time in over a decade, Washington State reached the NCAA Tournament. The Cougars’ four top scorers from last season – Myles Rice, Isaac Jones, Jaylen Wells and Andrej Jakimovski – are no longer with the program. Wells and Jones are off to the NBA, while Rice (Indiana) and Jakimovski (Colorado) hit the transfer portal after coach Kyle Smith took the vacant job at Stanford.
On top of that, Washington State is waiting for Gonzaga, Utah State, Fresno State, San Diego State, Boise State and Colorado State to join the Pac-12 in 2026, but in the meantime, the Cougars will be an affiliate member of the WCC. In short, Washington State will have to overcome a lot to make the NCAA Tournament again, and it’s a safe bet to assume they won’t be going dancing after a historic season. — Cameron Salerno
