It’s time to celebrate. I am over .500 picking games against the spread.
That might not sound like much, but it’s been a long climb. I went 8-6 ATS last week to bring my season record to 38-37-3. I went 7-7 straight up last week to even my mark at 39-39.
Being over .500 after five weeks of this crazy season is a good sign. I also feel like I have a better beat on the season now. Weeks 1-4 are now like the preseason in terms of the play making the unpredictability wild.
Now let’s settle in and pick some winners. I have a feeling I am going to get hot.
Let’s keep the celebration rolling.
San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) at Seattle Seahawks
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Prime Video)
This looked like a big game three weeks ago in terms of league stature, but both teams have struggled lately. It is a big game as far as the division. The Seahawks have major issue on defense right now, which I think will show up. Look for Brock Purdy to have a good day as the 49ers get back on track.
Pick: 49ers 30, Seahawks 20
Bonus: Micah Roberts, who is on a 23-5 roll on 49ers games, has released his best bets for the Week 6 NFC West game against the Seahawks. Roberts is leaning the Over total but who is he backing to cover? Find out right here at Sportsline.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+2.5) at Chicago Bears (London)
Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET (NFL Network, fubo)
The Jaguars won for the first time last week and Trevor Lawrence played well. But this Bears defense will present a much bigger challenge this week. Even so, I think both teams will score a bunch. The Jaguars defense has issues that Caleb Williams can attack. In the end, Lawrence will make one more play to win it.
Pick: Jaguars 30, Bears 27
Bonus: The SportsLine Projection Model, which is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, likes the Bears to cover against the Jaguars in Week 6. See the other picks the model is backing at SportsLine.
Washington Commanders at Baltimore Ravens (-6.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
This is the big game of the week, featuring a surprise Commanders team against a Ravens team that is one of the best in the league. This is a proving game for Jayden Daniels and the Commanders. Baltimore has issues on defense that show up each week. Daniels will play well and keep his team in it, but he won’t be able to outplay Lamar Jackson. Ravens will win a close one.
Pick: Ravens 31, Commanders 29
Arizona Cardinals at Green Bay Packers (-5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo try for free)
The Cardinals are out on the road for a second straight week after upsetting the 49ers. They rallied to do so, which says a lot about them as a team. But this is another tough challenge. The Packers haven’t clicked on offense yet with Jordan Love coming off his knee injury, but that will change here. The Packers will score a bunch against a so-so Cardinals defense.
Pick: Packers 33, Cardinals 21
Houston Texans (-7) at New England Patriots
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Patriots will turn to rookie quarterback Drake Maye in this game. That’s the smart thing, even if he is facing a good Texans front. It’s time. But the Pats offense has issues that will limit him. The Texans haven’t been dominant on offense, and the Patriots play sound defense. Texans take it, but it’s close.
Pick: Texans 21, Pats 17
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5) at New Orleans Saints
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo try for free)
This is likely going to be rookie Spencer Rattler starting for the injured Derek Carr for the Saints. Bucs coach Todd Bowles can dominate a rookie passer with all his different looks. Couple that with a banged-up offensive line and this can be a long day for the Saints. Tampa Bay is playing back-to-back road games, but they have rest from playing last Thursday. They get back on track after blowing a lead to the Falcons.
Pick: Bucs 26, Saints 17
Indianapolis Colts (-1) at Tennessee Titans
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Colts are coming off a loss at Jacksonville, so they are out on the road two straight weeks. The Titans are off a bye. Big edge to the home team. The health of both quarterbacks bears watching, but no matter who plays quarterback for either team the big edge goes to the Titans defense. The Colts can’t stop anybody. Titans win it.
Pick: Titans 27, Colts 20
Cleveland Browns at Philadelphia Eagles (-8.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo try for free)
The Browns are playing consecutive road games and the offense is a mess with Deshaun Watson. The Eagles are coming off a bye where they had time to stew about their last blowout loss to the Bucs. I think that stewing will pay off as they get back on track and Jalen Hurts plays better in this one than he’s been playing.
Pick: Eagles 28, Browns 17
Los Angeles Chargers (-3) at Denver Broncos
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Chargers are off the bye, while the Broncos have won three straight. Denver is doing it with their defense as they continue to see Bo Nix also improve on offense. Justin Herbert has been bothered by an ankle injury, but the bye probably did him well. I think the Chargers find a way in this one with their running game keying the victory.
Pick: Chargers 21, Broncos 17
Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) at Las Vegas Raiders
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
There is a chance Aidan O’Connell could take over for Gardner Minshew, who was benched last week. Whoever starts will be facing a good Pittsburgh defense. The Steelers will counter with Justin Fields, who needs a good game to quiet the critics and the Russell Wilson talk. I think Fields will outplay whoever plays quarterback for the Raiders.
Pick: Steelers 21, Raiders 13
Atlanta Falcons (-6) at Carolina Panthers
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo try for free)
The Panthers are struggling to stop teams and Kirk Cousins is coming off a career game against Tampa Bay. Other than a letdown of sorts, I can’t see the Panthers slowing Cousins down. On the other side, Andy Dalton won’t be able to keep up. Falcons big.
Pick: Falcons 35, Panthers 19
Detroit Lions (-3.5) at Dallas Cowboys
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo try for free)
The Lions are off their bye, while the Cowboys are home after a tough victory over the Steelers on the road. Dallas is still undermanned on defense, which is not a good thing against this Lions offense. Look for both teams to score a lot here as the Lions also have defensive issues. The Lions will win a shootout, but it’s close.
Pick: Lions 33, Cowboys 32
Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) at New York Giants
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, fubo try for free)
The Bengals are in survival mode right now at 1-4, while the Giants are coming off an impressive road victory over Seattle. They should have star rookie Malik Nabers back here to help Daniel Jones. The Cincinnati defense has been awful. This could be a wild one. Joe Burrow is on fire and he will win a high-scoring game.
Pick: Bengals 34, Giants 28
Buffalo Bills (-2.5) at New York Jets
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN, fubo try for free)
The Bills are out on the road for a third straight week, while the Jets are looking to get a bounce from the firing of coach Robert Saleh. It will be interesting to see how this team responds. Aaron Rodgers clearly was not happy with the direction of the team, but it’s on him to change that. Josh Allen has struggled against the Jets, so look for a low-scoring game with the Bills finding a way with a late score.
Pick: Bills 20, Jets 17
