As we attempt to catch our breath from a furious night of playoff baseball, let’s discuss a common theme from October so far. It’s been making the games so much more exciting in the late innings and, likely, causing a ton of angst among fans with rooting interests.
Top-shelf relievers are getting beaten by big home runs — or at least extra-base hits — late. Again and again. It just keeps happening.
It actually started the day before the playoffs officially began, though that doubleheader between the Mets and Braves was tantamount to a playoff game. If either team lost both ends, their season was over. Game 1 was especially big, because the winner could rest the best players in the second game, having clinched a playoff berth, and not ruin their pitching for Game 1 of the NLDS.
Both teams managed like it.
Braves closer Raisel Iglesias came into Game 1 in the eighth inning with a 3-2 lead and two runners on. He’d give up two runs before Brandon Nimmo took him deep. Iglesias had a 1.72 ERA and only three home runs allowed in 68 innings before that outing. In the bottom of the eighth, the Braves got two runners on base before Edwin Díaz came in from the Mets’ bullpen. He would allow a three-RBI double to Ozzie Albies. Díaz had a 0.63 ERA in his previous 14 outings.
Francisco Lindor then hit a two-run homer in the ninth.
Little did we know at the time what a primer this was for the next several weeks.
As of Game 3 of the ALCS Thursday night, it’s still going.
The Guardians took a 3-1 lead to the top of the eighth. There were two outs with elite setup man Hunter Gaddis in the game and the best closer in 2024 baseball, Emmanuel Clase, ready in the bullpen.
Juan Soto walked. In came Clase. And Aaron Judge hit a game-tying home run. Then Giancarlo Stanton hit a solo shot to take the lead.
How ridiculous was this? Well, Clase only allowed two home runs in the entire regular season. He gave up two homers in back-to-back at-bats in Game 3 of the ALCS. He had only given up five earned runs all season in 270 batters faced, and he coughed up two (one was charged to Gattis) in two batters.
The craziness in Game 3 wasn’t over, of course. Yankees closer Luke Weaver in his last 17 regular-season outings had a 0.92 ERA and only one home run allowed. He gave one up to Jhonkensy Noel with two outs in the ninth, allowing the Guardians to tie it. Then, in the bottom of the 10th, David Fry homered off Clay Holmes for a walk-off.
Holmes, the two-time All-Star, only gave up four homers in 63 regular-season innings.
The action on Sept. 30 and Oct. 17 merely bookended, so far, everything we’ve seen.
We’ve already seen 10 game-tying or go-ahead home runs in the eighth inning or later, which ties a postseason record. The World Series doesn’t even start until next week.
In fact, the Judge and Stanton homers weren’t the only blemishes on Clase, who had a nearly flawless regular season. He also gave up a three-run shot to Kerry Carpenter in Game 2 of the ALDS. This means that in Clase’s five playoff appearances, he’s allowed more home runs and earned runs than he did in the entire regular season. Sixty-six outings spanning 74 1/3 innings with five earned runs and two homers allowed versus six earned runs and three homers in six innings.
Clase probably won’t rest easy knowing he is far from alone, but that’s the reality right now.
Devin Williams is a two-time NL Reliever of the Year. He had a 1.25 ERA in 21 2/3 innings this season, an abbreviated year due to injury. He gave up just one home run and three earned runs all season. He only needed to get three outs in Game 3 of the Wild Card Series to send the Brewers to the next round, but instead he gave up a three-run homer to Pete Alonso and then another run after that. In that game alone, Williams gave up more runs than he did in 22 regular-season appearances.
It wasn’t a closer, but in Game 2 of that same series, the Brewers got to Phil Maton. Still, look at Maton’s numbers with the Mets after they acquired him via trade this past summer. He appeared in 31 games and had a 2.51 ERA. He had only given up one home run in 28 2/3 innings. In Game 2, he gave up home runs to Jackson Chourio and Garrett Mitchell. Hell, the Brewers did something similar the next night — it was just overshadowed by the Alonso blast — when Jake Bauers and Sal Frelick too José Buttó deep. Frelick only had two homers all year and hadn’t hit one out since May. Buttó had a 2.55 regular-season ERA and only allowed six homers in 74 innings.
How about Stanton’s homer off Kris Bubic in Game 3 of the ALDS? Bubic only gave up two homers in 30 1/3 innings of regular-season work.
The Phillies had multiple All-Star relievers. Jeff Hoffman was one of them and gave up a monster Mets inning in Game 1 of the NLDS. So was Matt Strahm, who gave up a game-tying, two-run blast to Mark Vientos in the ninth in Game 2. Closer Carlos Estévez only gave up five homers in 55 regular-season innings. He was bested by Lindor with a grand slam in the seventh inning in Game 4.
It’s just been absolutely jaw-dropping. This isn’t bad pitching. The hitters are besting these stud relievers.
We’ve been trained our whole lives to believe that “good pitching beats good hitting,” at least in October. Plus, relievers can be more dominant than starters because they are more fresh and only have to get a few outs each time. Yet hardly any big-time relievers have been immune in the 2024 playoffs. They are all getting beat up. It started on Sept. 30 and it is still going.
The ALCS Game 3 shots from Judge, Stanton, Noel and Fry feel like a longshot to be the end of this story. The way things are going right now, we could well be in for some historic, storybook finishes in the World Series.
