The 2024 MLB postseason continues Saturday night with Game 5 of the ALCS between the New York Yankees and Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field. The Yankees won a thrilling Game 4 on Friday and are one win away from their first pennant since 2009. They have three chances to win one game to get to the World Series. The Guardians, meanwhile, must win to keep their season alive and force Game 6 at Yankee Stadium on Monday.
With a possible pennant-clincher coming up Saturday, here is one question for each team heading into ALCS Game 5.
Yankees: How do they get to the finish line?
After Game 4, Yankees manager Aaron Boone admitted that “frankly, I wasn’t quite sure how we were going to get there,” meaning he wasn’t sure how they would record the 27 outs needed to win the game. Closer Luke Weaver was, in theory, unavailable (he started to throw lightly in the ninth inning), and starter Luis Gil went only four innings, forcing the middle of the bullpen to get some really important outs. Eight of them, in fact, between Jake Cousins and Mark Leiter Jr., who was added to the roster Friday.
In all likelihood, go-to setup men Clay Holmes and Tommy Kahnle will not be available Friday. They’ve both pitched back-to-back days — Holmes has pitched four times in five days and in all eight postseason games for the Yankees — and they look like they’re on fumes. Lefty Tim Hill has also pitched back-to-back days and four times in five days, though the Yankees might be willing to use the soft-tosser in Game 5. Even if they do, it’s fair to wonder how effective Hill will be given his recent workload.
Cousins (27 pitches) and Leiter (24 pitches) both had big workloads and pitched in two separate innings in Game 4. Lefty Tim Mayza and starter-turned-reliever Marcus Stroman are the only fresh-ish arms in New York’s bullpen. Stroman has not appeared in a game since Sept. 25 and has not thrown more than 66 pitches in a game since Sept. 10, and he had a 5.95 ERA after July 1, but he might have to soak up a few innings in Game 5 out of necessity. The 3-1 series lead could lead the Yankees down that path.
Carlos Rodón was terrific in Game 1, holding Cleveland to one solo homer in six innings, and the Yankees sure could use a similar effort Saturday night. They need as many outs from Rodón as possible, and even if he does go 6-7 innings, piecing together those last 6-9 outs will take some creativity and finger-crossing. The Yankees had a hard time getting 27 outs in Game 4. It won’t be any easier with the pennant on the line in Game 5. The pitching staff from top to bottom is on E.
Guardians: How much can Bibee give them?
In Game 2, Guardians ace Tanner Bibee went only 1 1/3 innings and 39 pitches because he was ineffective (three runs on five hits and a walk) and also because Cleveland has an excellent bullpen, and manager Stephen Vogt did not hesitate to go to it in hopes of avoiding a 2-0 series deficit. That didn’t work, the Guardians lost Game 2, though the short start allows Cleveland to bring their ace back on short rest in the win-or-go-home Game 5. Saturday will be Bibee’s first ever start on short rest.
“Just one less light day pretty much,” Bibee said Friday when asked how he adjusted his between-starts routine. “It’s not like I went out there and threw 100 pitches and about to go out there and do it again. I threw 39 pitches. I feel good. I’m ready to go.”
Like the Yankees, Cleveland’s bullpen is almost out of gas. Ace setup man Cade Smith averaged 94.0 mph with his fastball in Game 4 and did not throw one over 94.4 mph, well below his regular season average of 96.1 mph. His max fastball in Game 4 was nearly two ticks south of his season average. Emmanuel Clase has gotten hit around this postseason and it’s fair to wonder whether the workload is taking its toll. We are well beyond the point of diminishing returns with relievers this postseason.
With their season on the line, Vogt will do what he has to do to win Game 5, though it’s hard to see how the Guardians can make an ALCS comeback without Bibee having an excellent start Saturday. He has not completed five innings since Sept. 24 and I’m not sure Cleveland has the horses to navigate another short start Saturday, and still be in good position to go win Games 6 and 7. They need their ace to give them an ace-like outing in Game 4.
