In case you’re new here, I spend a good chunk of my offseason telling you who to bet on before October rolls around. My annual MVP, Defensive Player of the Year, Sixth Man of the Year, Rookie of the Year, Coach of the Year and Most Improved Player previews came in over the summer, and I added win totals for the Eastern and Western Conference more recently. Hopefully you get your favorite picks in early, because the odds have already changed quite a bit since some of these stories ran.
But let’s say you didn’t. Let’s say you’re a procrastinator that is just now realizing that the season is about to begin and you want to get in on the action. You’re in luck, because I’m going to tie all of that preseason betting research together. We’re going to cover 20 of the most prominent categories and make a single pick for each of them. We are assuming, for the sake of ease, that you are placing 20 individual units of the same size on each, with the goal being to return more than 20 when the dust has settled in June.
Some of these picks will be favorites. Some have current odds as long as 40-to-1. These are not, in a vacuum, picks for what will happen in each race, but rather what represents the best betting value available on the market before the season begins. If you’re an advanced bettor, keep in mind that value can be reflected in more ways than a simple end-of-season win. Owning a certain ticket early can be a valuable portfolio builder if you’re looking to add bets as the season progresses, or, at certain books, you’ll also have cash out options. All of that will be factored in.
For the sake of ease, we’ll be using lines from Caesars Sportsbook, but as always, shop around for the best price on any bet you want to make. Now let’s dive in.
MVP: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+375)
We covered the awards in more depth in the stories linked above, but for now, we’re just going to cover how these picks reflect the typical formula for these trophies. MVP winners are almost always players who were either First- or Second-Team All-NBA selections in the previous season and between the ages of 24 and 28. The four players that fit the bill this season are Gilgeous-Alexander, Luka Doncic, Jayson Tatum and Jalen Brunson. If you’re building a portfolio, those are the names you want. If you’re picking one? I’m taking Gilgeous-Alexander.
If Tatum can’t sneak into the race with 64 wins, the voters have likely just decided he is not an MVP-caliber player. Brunson’s defense and all of the attention that will be lavished onto Karl-Anthony Towns and the wings likely make him more of a down-ballot option. Gilgeous-Alexander will likely finish a shade behind Doncic statistically, but he can make that up by playing for the best team. He doesn’t have a teammate that soaks up as many possessions as Kyrie Irving, he’s the superior defender, and his team is going to have an easier time integrating its new players. As I’ve written elsewhere, I’d endorse a Doncic bet a month or so into the season, when he tends to heat up. For now, Gilgeous-Alexander is my lean.
Defensive Player of the Year: Chet Holmgren (+1000)
Never, ever make a minus-money awards bet before the season. Victor Wembanyama is out for that reason alone. The typical profile for a Defensive Player of the Year is the rim protector on a top-five defense. Evan Mobley, Bam Adebayo, Rudy Gobert and Jaren Jackson Jr. should all be in the running, but each come with flaws. Mobley splits credit with Jarrett Allen, Adebayo has a weak defensive roster, Gobert is fighting pubic perception after an ugly Western Conference finals and Jackson has health concerns. The Thunder have a chance to be historic defensively. They might be so good that the voters subconsciously decide, as they did with the 2022 Celtics, that one of their players has to win. If that’s the case, Holmgren is the (non-Wembanyama) frontrunner.
Rookie of the Year: Zach Edey (+250)
Rookie of the Year almost always boils down to counting stats. Go look at Edey’s college numbers. He’s going to win any “counting stats” contest, but it helps that virtually every other member of his draft class carries some meaningful flaw they’ll have to overcome early. Edey will be far more prominent than most of his competition by virtue of playing for a winning team. He’s been so good this preseason that his odds have sadly shortened quite a bit. The best time to bet Edey was July. The second-best time is now.
Sixth Man of the Year: Deuce McBride (+1800)
The Sixth Man of the Year formula is changing. In the past, it’s almost exclusively gone to the leading bench scorer in a given season. The past few seasons have seen a bit of a shift, and that opens the door for a player who provides a good chunk of his value defensively in McBride. The real appeal of this pick is that the Knicks are fairly thin after two blockbuster trades and Tom Thibodeau plays who he trusts. McBride played 42 or more minutes 11 times in March and April combined last season. This is a minutes pick as much as anything, and while there’s danger in injuries forcing McBride to start, this award has gotten a bit more spot-starter friendly in recent years. And while McBride did start 14 games a season ago, Immanuel Quickley started only 27 games in four years with the Knicks. If McBride playing big minutes off of the bench is working, Thibodeau will stick with it.
Coach of the Year: Taylor Jenkins (+1200)
Your Coach of the Year odds slip considerably with each seed you lose. Top seeds win more often than No. 2 seeds, who win more often than No. 3 seeds, who win more often than No. 4 seeds. The Grizzlies were a No. 2 seed in their last two healthy seasons, but the likeliest No. 1 seed out West is Oklahoma City, and no coach has ever repeated as Coach of the Year, which likely rules out Mark Daigneault. Beyond winning, Coach of the Year winners tend to outperform expectations. Most preseason prognostications have the Thunder, Mavericks, Nuggets and Timberwolves as the top four seeds out West. If Jenkins’ Grizzlies can crack that group and earn a top seed, he’ll have an edge over the candidates leading teams that voters expected more out of.
Most Improved Player: Victor Wembanyama (+650)
Most Improved Player is, simply, the first-time All-Star award. The candidates are a given season’s pool of first-time All-Stars. That’s it. Every active winner except C.J. McCollum was a first-time All-Star, and McCollum only missed out because he played in a particularly crowded Western Conference. My original best bet was Jalen Williams, but he was available at +2200 back then. Now? You can’t get him at anything longer than +1200. Therefore, I’ve pivoted.
There’s a good chance Williams is a first-time All-Star this season, but you know who almost definitely will be? Wembanyama. That doesn’t mean I expect him to win this award. It means I’m locking in what might be the longest number I get all year on perhaps the only guaranteed candidate to win it. This is a portfolio bet. The plan here, unless you want to take those shorter Williams odds, would be to have Wembanyama in your back pocket and then spend the first few weeks of the season trying to identify the other first-time All-Star candidates. You may lose some value (especially if it turns out Williams is the guy), but you’re paying for better intel than we currently have.
Scoring leader: Cam Thomas (+4000)
Cam Thomas attempted 27.5 field goals per 100 possessions last season, trailing only Joel Embiid, Jalen Brunson, Luka Doncic and Stephen Curry among players who appeared in at least 25 games. He racked up more total minutes last season (2,074) than passes (1,916). The Nets are openly trying to lose games. They have the league’s preeminent gunner and absolutely no reason to tell him to stop shooting. He is playing for a contract extension. At odds like these, I’m taking the home run swing.
Assists leader: James Harden (+850)
Who else is even going to dribble on the Clippers? Harden led the NBA in assists during the 2022-23 season, and while his per possessions figure dipped last season, it was pretty explainable based on how often he had the ball. Harden averaged 93.5 touches per game in his final 76ers season and then fell to 76.5 with the Clippers. Essentially, he lost around one-fifth of his touches. His assists dipped from 14.3 per 100 possessions as a Sixer to 12.3 as a Clipper. That’s a relatively similar decline. Now Harden is going to have the ball all of the time, especially while Kawhi Leonard is injured. The Clippers won’t be good on offense, but almost all of their counting stats will have to trace back to Harden in some way.
Rebounds leader: Domantas Sabonis (+145)
I’d play it safe on this one. The only other candidate I considered was Wembanyama, but he couldn’t even match Sabonis on a per-100 possession basis last season. That was true even after his post-All-Star break glow up in basically every statistical category, and Sabonis just plays more minutes and gets more opportunities to rebound than Wembanyama does. There’s a reason he’s won this category two years in a row.
Blocks leader: Jaren Jackson Jr. (+1800)
As a reminder, you need to play 58 games to qualify for leadership status in a statistical category. Wembanyama’s odds are currently at -500 for the blocks title. Those are implied odds of around 83%. Do you think there’s an 83% chance of Wembanyama playing 58 games this season? That’s far too much of a risk for such a minor reward. Never bet minus-money award or league-leader lines before the season. Jackson’s block rate during his Defensive Player of the Year-winning 2022-23 season was just a hair below Wembanyama’s last season. He’s no guarantee to play 58 games either, but you’re getting 18-to-1 instead of 1-to-5. I’ll gladly take those odds on the NBA’s second-best shot-blocker.
Steals leader: Victor Wembanyama (+2500)
Again, this is where odds come into play. I’m not taking a minus-money Wembanyama prop, but 25-to-1? That has my attention. He averaged 1.5 steals per game after the All-Star break last season. De’Aaron Fox and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the way last season at two per game. Fox had just averaged 1.2 and 1.1 steals in his last two seasons prior to tying for the steal’s lead, and Gilgeous-Alexander is now competing with another elite defender in Alex Caruso for steal chances. I don’t think Wembanyama is going to win the steals race, but this is a way to bet on his defense at far more favorable odds.
Win Total: Clippers Under 35 (-120)
This line just keeps moving down. It was at 37.5 before the latest Kawhi Leonard injury news came in on Friday. I don’t care. I’m still all-in on the Clippers under. The Clippers getting to 35 wins probably requires Leonard returning relatively quickly and playing something like 50 or 55 games. Do you feel confident in that happening? After what looked like a short-term injury all but kept him out of the playoffs, knocked off of Team USA and prevented him from suiting up at all during the preseason? The offseason is already leaning heavily on a severely-declined Harden. How do they score if their 35-year-old point guard misses time? There are no easy nights in the Western Conference. Except, maybe, the Clippers if these injuries start to spiral.
Division: Cavaliers to win the Central Division (+160)
I’m in favor of shorting the Bucks in just about any way you can imagine. I’d certainly recommend the under on their win total. I don’t even think +1300 to miss the playoffs is that crazy, though it’s not one I’d recommend for reasons I’ll explain in a few picks. There’s just a lot of disaster potential there. They’re an extremely thin team relying heavily on a small, 34-year-old guard (Damian Lillard), a lumbering 36-year-old center (Brook Lopez) and a very injury-prone wing (Khris Middleton). Giannis Antetokounmpo is already casually mentioning trade possibilities. Indiana is tempting at +300, but Tyrese Haliburton’s health is too much of a question mark. Cleveland tanked away a chance at the No. 2 seed last season and did so with its three best players, Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley and Darius Garland, missing 84 combined games. They’re an extremely high-floor team by virtue of their two elite rim protectors (Mobley and Jarrett Allen) and their two high-end shot-creators (Mitchell and Garland). They’ve upgraded at coach by hiring Kenny Atkinson. I am reasonably confident that this team is going to win 50 games. While I’m not as confident that the Bucks don’t, they are much more of a “get healthy in time for the playoffs” team than a “go all out for 82” type of team.
To make the playoffs: Raptors (+600)
At a minimum, I view Toronto as a default Play-In team in the East. That’s one of the benefits of sharing a conference with the Pistons, Wizards, Nets, Hornets and Bulls. I see their upside as meaningfully higher, but on a fundamental level, +600 to at worst win two Play-In games but potentially only win one? I like those odds, especially since the odds on virtually every bubble team in the Western Conference are close to even.
To miss the playoffs: Suns (+210)
This is a procedural pick, not commentary on the Suns. I’m not picking any team in the Eastern Conference because the gap between the top eight and the bottom seven is so vast that none of the teams at worthwhile odds are in enough danger for me. That leaves the West. There’s plenty to choose from as far as older teams with serious injury risks go, but the Lakers and Warriors have less appealing odds. The market likes Phoenix better, but I don’t ultimately view the Suns with an injured Kevin Durant as any different than the Lakers with an injured LeBron James or the Warriors with an injured Stephen Curry. The risk is the same. The reward is higher. I think Phoenix does make the playoffs, but if you’re going to short one of the old teams, the odds point you in this direction.
No. 1 Seed, Eastern Conference: Cavaliers (+800)
The Knicks intrigued me at +300, but the Precious Achiuwa injury, Mikal Bridges‘ shooting woes and an odd quote from Josh Hart have scared me off just a bit. I’m not laying minus-money on Boston. As I’ve said, I’m extremely pro-Cavs. They’re a very high-floor team. At 8-to-1, you’re essentially betting on either perfect health or a breakout somewhere on the roster. I don’t love any single pick in the East, but I’d rather taking the longer odds and hedge it later than pick minus-money on Boston only for injuries to ruin it.
No. 1 Seed, Western Conference: Grizzlies (+1600)
The Thunder are my pick here, but I’m not putting +105 on a full-season bet. The Grizzlies were the No. 2 seed in the conference in back-to-back seasons before last year’s injury-riddled disaster. Edey brings a new dimension they didn’t previously have, and they cultivated a ton of cheap depth while their best players were hurt. I’d be intrigued by Dallas at +1000 if I thought the Mavericks were starting Naji Marshall, but as it will probably take them a few months to sort out their rotation, I like the Grizzlies at longer odds just a bit more.
Best overall record: Thunder (+330)
Now here is how you bet the Thunder regular season. If you assume that Boston isn’t quite as dominant in the regular season with a championship under their belt and Kristaps Porzingis ailing, I don’t have any problem with assuming the No. 1 seed in the West can have the league’s best overall record. The Thunder have the NBA’s deepest defense. They have the Coach of the Year. They have the assets to patch any holes that might arise during the season. The only real injury that could impact their regular-season significantly would be losing Gilgeous-Alexander because they don’t have another high-end shot-creator. Otherwise, this is a far better version of last year’s 57-win juggernaut.
In-Season Tournament winner: Cavaliers (+2200)
Don’t bet on the In-Season Tournament. Please. I’m asking as a friend. I’m submitting a pick out of obligation. Cleveland and Boston just have the easiest group. Chicago and Washington are borderline free wins, and Atlanta isn’t too much better. I’d expect both Boston and Cleveland to advance out of their group, whereas every other group has at least three reasonably competitive teams. You could obviously just take Boston a +550 to make it through this cakewalk of a group and into the final eight, but at +550, the odds just aren’t favorable enough for a recommendation.
NBA champion: Thunder (+600)
The two most important factors in winning a championship are health and the ability to solve problems. We can’t predict health, but a team as young as Oklahoma City seems as safe a bet as any to make it to May and June in one piece. Virtually every other top contender comes with at least one significant health risk. Boston has Kristaps Porzingis, and Jrue Holiday is quietly 34 years old. New York has OG Anunoby. Philadelphia has Joel Embiid. Dallas has Kyrie Irving. Denver has Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. The problem-solving element is a bit easier to peg. You need a roster that is adaptable, one that can answer the questions that a variety of different types of opponents can pose. Can you play both big and small? Do you have offense-centric groups that can survive on defense? Can you play defense-first lineups that don’t sacrifice spacing? Do you have a matchup for every type of opposing star? Can you score when your opponent has the perfect defender for your own star?
No team, not even last year’s Celtics, has an answer for every question. The Thunder come closer than anyone, and remember, they also happen to have more tradable draft capital than any other team. If they feel they need another piece to match up with the Celtics or Nuggets or Mavericks or whoever, they have the capacity to go get that player. When you’re making a preseason bet, that is what you’re looking for. You should feel relatively comfortable that when the field whittles down in May, they’ll still be there, and they’ll have solutions for as many of the remaining teams as possible.
