KANSAS CITY — The Big 12 office finalized the schedules in the heart of the offseason and then sent them to each member-institution, at which point coaching staffs on campuses spanning three time zones immediately started trying to figure out how they’ll be spending the last two-thirds of the season.
It’s a natural thing to do.
So, naturally, Texas Tech coach Grant McCasland was among those who dug in, same as you or I would. But, pretty quickly, McCasland decided to put it down and look away, reaching the conclusion that there was no actual point in getting worked-up and beaten down on an otherwise pleasant day.
“I started going through Game 1, Game 2 and I got to Game 4 … and it was overwhelming … and I just stopped. I really did. I stopped,” McCasland explained. “And so people ask me like, ‘Who do you play twice?’ And I do know (that) just because of the names that we’ve been asked repetitively. … But I could not even tell you the order. I could not tell you who we play after the first Big 12 game right now because I just made a conscious effort to go, ‘Hey, let’s focus on one at a time.’ And that sounds like a corny answer. But I honestly believe it with all my heart. I think the moment you look at this schedule and try to figure out how you’re going to navigate it is the moment you’re losing.”
One by one, 16 coaches took the stage Wednesday here inside the T-Mobile Center, where the Big 12 held its annual Media Day in advance of a season that starts in less than two weeks. Every man, in his own words, mentioned that this is the sport’s best conference while different graphics designed to hammer home the point flashed behind them — graphics that highlighted how the Big 12 has received at least seven bids to 10 straight NCAA Tournaments, graphics about how the Big 12 has had a No. 1 seed in four straight NCAA Tournaments, graphics about how the Big 12, earlier this month, became the first conference in history to place as many as five teams in the top 10 of the Associated Press Top 25 preseason poll.
Did you realize that?
The Big 12 has won two of the past four NCAA Tournaments and rated as the sport’s best conference for three straight years, and in nine of the past 11 seasons, according to KenPom.com. It’s been consistently great for a while. But the best really might be on tap considering literally half of the top 10 of the preseason AP Top 25 poll is occupied by Big 12 members — specifically No. 1 Kansas, No. 4 Houston, No. 5 Iowa State, No. 8 Baylor and No. 10 Arizona. Over at KenPom, the Big 12 has four of the top eight, five of the top 11, six of the top 15, seven of the 17, eight of the top 21 and absolutely nobody lower than 89th.
How unusual is that?
So unusual that exactly zero other conferences are heading into this season with multiple teams in KenPom’s top 10 and zero teams outside of the top 90. In other words, whether you evaluate leagues by the strength at the top, by the lack of garbage at the bottom, or by the depth throughout, the Big 12 is undeniably strong. And what’s interesting is that most coaches I spoke with Wednesday said they believe it’s not the strength at the top as much as it’s the strength at the bottom that makes things so challenging.
“That’s what makes the league hard,” said Kansas coach Bill Self, who entered the conference in 2003 and has since secured an incredible 16 Big 12 regular-season titles. “A lot of leagues are top-heavy — but also bottom-heavy. This league has no bottom. So no matter where you go, winning on the road (is difficult).”
“The venues that you go to on the road in this league …” added Colorado coach Tad Boyle before trailing off and telling a story about the last time he coached in the Big 12.
It was the 2010-11 season, otherwise known as the final season Colorado spent in the Big 12 before moving to the Pac-12 for the 13 years that preceded this move back to the Big 12. The Buffaloes were heading into their final road game, a Wednesday night tilt against an Iowa State team that was 1-10 in its past 11 and just 2-12 in the league. If ever a conference road game should’ve been simple, this was the type of conference road game that should’ve been simple. If ever a building should’ve been empty or at least not full, this is the type of building that should’ve been empty or at least not full.
But the building wasn’t empty. So the game wasn’t simple.
“It was sold out,” Boyle said. “And that building beat us that night with a team that was not as talented as we were. They weren’t as good as we were. But their building helped win them a game that night. … And that’s the kind of stuff you see in the Big 12 that you don’t see in other leagues.”
“Most of these road games, it’s going to be a sold-out and excited crowd and, to be honest with you, we didn’t get that on a nightly basis in the Pac-12,” added Arizona coach Tommy Lloyd, whose Wildcats are one of four programs transitioning from the Pac-12 to the Big 12 this season.
To highlight just how challenging the Big 12 is expected to be, understand that Arizona is the reigning Pac-12 champ, ranked 10th in the preseason AP poll — but only expected to finish 13-7 in the Big 12 this season, according to KenPom. Kansas is No. 1 in the preseason AP poll and also expected to finish 13-7 in the conference, according to KenPom. And not even Self is really arguing with that calculation.
“I can tell you, hands down, this is going to be the hardest year to win our league,” he said. “If somebody can go 15-5, I would think, ‘Wow, they’ve had a heckuva year’ whereas in the past, maybe you could have a team go 16-2 or something like that,” Self said. “But I don’t see that happening.”
A 15-5 record in the Big East last season would’ve had you finishing three games back of UConn. A 15-5 record in the Big Ten last season would’ve had you finishing two games back of Purdue. A 15-5 record in the ACC last season would’ve had you finishing two games back of North Carolina. But a 15-5 record in the Big 12 this season should be enough to secure an outright conference championship.
That’s what multiple computers are projecting.
Bottom line, the Big 12 could put 10 teams in the NCAA Tournament, three teams in the Final Four and/or two teams in the national championship game and it wouldn’t be shocking. Basically anything is possible. Which is why there’s a logical argument to be made that no conference has ever been both this strong at the top and this strong at the bottom heading into any season in the history of the sport.
Will it live up to expectations?
As always, we’ll see.
But when a man in possession of 16 regular-season Big 12 titles — and the preseason’s top-ranked team in the entire country — tells you winning the Big 12 this season will be harder than it’s ever been in any previous season, it’s probably worth taking note and recognizing that survival is really the primary goal.
