Yankees facing World Series sweep vs. Dodgers: What history says about incredibly slim chances of coming back

Going into Tuesday night’s Game 4 of the 2024 World Series, the New York Yankees are tasked with the almost impossible. Their 4-2 loss in Game 3 to the Los Angeles Dodgers means they’re now down 3-0 in the best-of-seven series. Thus, the Yankees face the following grim reality: they must win four straight against — let’s be frank at this point — the best team in baseball. 

Just twice during the regular season did the Dodgers endure losing streaks of four games or more. The most recent was in early July, and the first, their season-long skid of five games, was in May. Under those circumstances, of course, the Dodgers weren’t one win away from the eighth world championship in franchise history and thus weren’t damning the torpedoes to the extent they will for the remainder of this series. 

Now we get to the part at which the Yankees run up against the forces of history. Across the full history of best-of-seven postseason series in Major League Baseball, 40 teams have been down 3-0. Of those 40 teams, exactly one successfully came back from that deficit to win the series. As you’re probably aware, that team was the 2004 Red Sox, who barged back from the 3-0 deficit against, yes, the Yankees and won the 2004 ALCS. 

If there’s any comfort to be found for the Yankees in this lonesome, isolated historical model it’s that the ’04 Red Sox pulled off their miracle under the exact same circumstances that presently confront the Yankees. That is, they won Games 4 and 5 at home before winning the final two games of the series on the road. For the current Yankees model, that amounts to hanging by a thread of gossamer, but we suppose it’s something. 

Now let’s make time for coincidences (not ironies). It so happens that current Dodgers manager Dave Roberts played a crucial supporting role in that Red Sox comeback from two decades ago. With his Red Sox down 4-3 in the bottom of the ninth of Game 4, Roberts as a pinch-runner for Kevin Millar swiped second and put himself in scoring position as the potential tying run. Relive it with us, won’t you?

Soon thereafter, Roberts would score on Bill Mueller’s single – the Red Sox’s only hit of the inning off uber-closer Mariano Rivera. The game lasted until the 12th inning, when David Ortiz’s walk-off home run certifiably launched what would turn out to be an unexampled comeback. 

Inevitably, Roberts after his team prevailed in Game 3 was asked about his role in the Sox’s defiance of odds and history back in 2004. He was, quite understandably, having none of it. “Don’t talk about that,” Roberts said post-game on Monday night. “Wrong guy. Way too early.”

So noted. 

Our second, decidedly lesser coincidence. Is that Yankees manager Aaron Boone has been in these straits before. His Yankees in the 2022 postseason fell behind the Astros 3-0 in the ALCS, and in a perhaps dubious effort to inspire his charges he invoked that 2004 ALCS, which, it should be pointed out again, the Yankees lost. At the time, we wrote: 

“Manager Aaron Boone told MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch that mental skills coach Chad Bohling had passed around highlight videos of the 2004 Red Sox on Sunday morning. Additionally, ESPN analyst Eduardo Perez did a video call with David Ortiz, a member of that team, during Boone’s pre-game media availability session in his office.”

Let the record show that these tactics did not work, as the Astros closed out the series and secured the sweep with a 6-5 win in Game 4 of that 2022 ALCS. 

This brings us back to the present moment. What passes for hope from the Yankee standpoint is that they have slightly better odds of avoiding a sweep than they do of mounting a full comeback to win the series. This is of course as you would expect, but let’s make note of it just the same. As detailed above, only one of the 40 teams down 3-0 in a best-of-seven MLB playoff series has won four straight to take the series. That means, at least according to the history of such things, the Yankees have a 2.5% chance of joining the 2004 Red Sox. And what of Tuesday’s Game 4 specifically? According to WhoWins.com, nine of those 40 teams down 0-3 have managed to win Game 4 and duck the sweep. So history says the Yankees have a comparatively lofty 22.5% chance of forcing a Game 5 on Wednesday (and thus handing the ball to ace Gerrit Cole). Given that the Yankee mentality right about now has to be “just win one game,” maybe there’s hope here (albeit not much). 

Taking the full view, maybe if Boone is inclined to distribute more action-sports video footage in the name of a rousing comeback, he should turn to another sport? More specifically, Boone should probably cobble together a spirit-lifting hockey mixtape. That’s because four National Hockey League squadrons have rallied from down 3-0 to win a postseason series. Those teams are the 1942 Toronto Maple Leafs, the 1975 New York Islanders, the 2010 Philadelphia Flyers, and the 2014 Los Angeles Kings. Sure this is — bulletin forthcoming — an entirely different sport, but teams in the Yankees’ present pickle can’t be so selective in choosing their sources of inspiration. 

Teams to overcome 3-0 deficit

(In best-of-seven series across MLB, NHL and NBA)

So the Yankees go into Game 4 knowing they’re likely to be swept and almost certainly going to see their 2024 season end without achieving their greater goal. However, all is not lost until all is lost, and all is not presently lost. 

Check back later for an update on whether all is lost. If you’re partial to the Dodgers, check back later for an update on whether all has been gained.