Now that the Dodgers have been crowned champions and the World Series has concluded, it’s time to focus on what comes next. For Major League Baseball’s front offices, the answer is right there on the league’s calendar: the opening of the free-agent market.
As is tradition, we here at CBS Sports are previewing this winter’s free-agent class by ranking the top 25 players based on a combination of their expected average annual value and their perceived skill level. Additionally, because we love being yelled at online by people who refuse to read the introduction, we’ve included a few potential landing spots for each player. It should go without saying (but it doesn’t) that there are more than three likely suitors for each player.
These rankings are formed after firsthand statistical and observational analysis, as well as conversations with scouts, analysts, and other front-office types, and historical research. We freely admit to being biased toward and against some profiles, and we stress that we don’t care if our rankings diverge from other public lists. Variety is good.
Below begins our top 25 rankings. Free agency doesn’t technically begin until Monday (Nov. 4), and we likely won’t see most players sign until December or January. Now, let’s get down to brass tacks.
1. Juan Soto, OF
The short hook: A generational hitter in his statistical prime.
For the second offseason in a row, these rankings are topped by a future Hall of Famer. Soto is, plainly, one of the five best hitters in the world. He pairs elite plate discipline with elite strength and elite barrel awareness; that triumvirate empowered him to become the first left-handed hitter in nearly two decades to record consecutive seasons in which he recorded at least 35 home runs and walked more than he struck out. How’s this for consistency: Soto has been an everyday big-league player since he was 19 years old, yet he’s never finished a season (no matter the number of games played) with an OPS+ below 140. The dangdest thing about Soto is that, for as accomplished as he is, next season will represent his age-26 campaign. (To put that into perspective, Yankees catcher Austin Wells just finished his first full big-league season following a reasonably paced development path … and he’s only 260 days younger than Soto.) Nitpick Soto’s defense and question how long he’ll avoid the DH role if you so choose. Eventually, you must concede that players this skilled, this accomplished, and this young seldom reach free agency. Expect him to get paid in accordance to that reality. Potential landing spots: Yankees, Mets, Giants
2. Corbin Burnes, RHP
The short hook: Undeniable track record, but is decline underway?
At first blush, Burnes is clearly this free-agent class’ best and most reliable starting pitcher. He’s earned four consecutive trips to the All-Star Game; he’s among the league leaders in innings pitched since the pandemic; and he’s proved that his game works both inside the American League and outside of Milwaukee, as if there was any doubt. Yet if you look closely enough at his profile, you’ll notice some hints of potential decline. For starters, Burnes’ strikeout rate deteriorated for a fourth year in a row, dipping beneath a batter per inning for the first time in his career. His trademark cutter, the primary pitch in his bag, returned its worst results (highest average and lowest whiff rate) until some late-season tinkering helped get it back on course. His in-zone contact rate, meanwhile, put him in the same neighborhood occupied by Kyle Gibson, Chris Flexen, and Carson Fulmer, among others. Mind you, none of the above prevented Burnes from notching another high-quality season. His command remains superb, enabling him to control quality of contact the way few others can. Burnes himself has explained away his strikeout rate by saying he was prioritizing early outs. Maybe so, but we suspect teams will think a little longer and a little harder than they expected to before handing him a long-term deal. Potential landing spots: Orioles, Mets, Red Sox
3. Alex Bregman, 3B
The short hook: Esteemed third baseman with some question marks.
Bregman has been one of the most productive third basemen in the sport for much of his career. He’s compiled the sixth-most WAR at the position since 2020, putting him ahead of Rafael Devers and behind only the who’s who of this era’s third basemen. He’s had a terrific career to date. Yet this exercise is, in part, about looking forward. The more we dug in on Bregman, the more we developed reservations about his bat. There’s no denying his feel for contact but we’re not as confident about the other elements. For instance, Statcast’s calculations suggest he would have at least 30 fewer career home runs had he hit the same array of batted balls in one of 17 other MLB fields. You can’t hold that against Bregman — you golf the course you’re on — but it does suggest his power might play down elsewhere. There’s also the matter of his walk rate, which cratered to a career-low 6.9% last season as he grew more aggressive. Bregman’s bat-to-ball and defensive skills remain good enough for him to provide value; there’s just a little more reason to say “hm” here than his name value indicates. Potential landing spots: Astros, Nationals, Tigers
4. Blake Snell, LHP
The short hook: Electric lefty returns for round two.
Snell recovered from a truncated spring training and a pair of early trips to the injured list to accumulate the fourth-best ERA+ of his career. That doesn’t sound impressive at first blush, but consider the circumstances and remember he’s a two-time Cy Young Award winner. Snell still has the same basic profile that he did this time last year, when he was embarking on his first foray into free agency: he has elite bat-missing ability, yet some teams will scoff at his inefficiency. Fair enough, we suppose. Snell continues to produce year in and year out all the same. At some point, you have to just tip your cap and accept that that’s the way it’s going to be. In turn, here’s hoping he lands the long-term deal that he was denied 12 months ago. Potential landing spots: Giants, Cubs, Mets
5. Max Fried, LHP
The short hook: Accomplished lefty with nasty curveball.
We wanted to print a complete list of left-handed starting pitchers with a better ERA+ than Fried since the beginning of the 2020 season, but we ran into a problem when we went to compile the names. You see, no sinister hurler who had a decent amount of innings (min. 200 combined) actually placed ahead of him in that metric. Oh well. Blame Fried’s sustained excellence on his ability to manage contact. He ranked in the 95th percentile in average exit velocity last season, and he did it while generating nearly 60% ground balls for a second consecutive year. The biggest knock on Fried is his innings count, as he’s cleared the 180-threshold just once in his career. Given the league’s direction over the past decade, we’re not inclined to think that’ll hurt him. Potential landing spots: Giants, Mets, Padres
6. Willy Adames, SS
The short hook: Reliable slugging shortstops don’t grow on trees.
Adames cinched a new single-season high in home runs and notched his fifth consecutive three-plus-win season (excluding 2020’s sprint) thanks in part to a white-hot August. For the most part, he’s the same player he has been for years: he’s capable of impacting the baseball frequently enough to overshadow his swing-and-miss tendencies; he’s not a Gold Glove-caliber fielder, but he’ll remain at shortstop for the time being; and so on. The one interesting wrinkle he added this season was a newfound willingness and ability to steal bases. If we had to guess, we would pencil Adames in for a sweeter deal than the seven-year, $177 million Dansby Swanson received a few winters ago. Potential landing spots: Braves, Tigers, Giants
7. Jack Flaherty, RHP
The short hook: Resurgent righty will blow away last winter’s pillow contract.
This time a year ago, Flaherty was coming off a putrid stint with the Orioles that saw him relegated to the bullpen for Baltimore’s brief postseason run. His topline results were disappointing, and his underlying measures didn’t offer much hope. The one-year pact he signed with the Tigers seemed like a proverbial fork in the road: either he was going to redeem himself, or he was going to spend the next few years hopping around the league on similar deals until interest completely dried up. Flaherty did the former, fixing his fastball axis and (perhaps relatedly) mothballing his cutter in favor of a three-pitch mix. He didn’t perform quite as well after a midseason trade to the Dodgers, but he’s on the right side of 30 and there’s more than enough here to envision him serving as a middle-of-the-rotation starter for a few years more. In other words, don’t expect him to settle for another one-year arrangement this offseason. Potential landing spots: Dodgers, Mets, Angels
8. Sean Manaea, LHP
The short hook: Altered release point unlocked new level for veteran lefty.
The story has been overshared by now, so we’ll keep it brief: Manaea, inspired by watching Chris Sale, dropped his release point and added a crossfire element to his delivery in August. That combination created additional deception that seemed to befuddle hitters — to the extent that he posted a 3.41 ERA and a 4.24 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his final 11 appearances. Manaea is already nearing his 33rd birthday, and there is a fair amount of risk in assuming he’ll continue to be as effective with additional exposure. Still, we feel confident writing that he’ll get a raise on the $14 million AAV he signed for last winter. Potential landing spots: Mets, Dodgers, Rangers
9. Nathan Eovaldi, RHP
The short hook: Veteran right-hander can still get the job done.
Want to feel old? It’s been more than six years since Eovaldi’s gutsy six-inning relief appearance on one day’s rest during the 2018 World Series. He’s still kicking, having just notched his fifth consecutive season with a 100 ERA+ or better. Eovaldi may be nearing his 35th season, but he continues to adjust; last season, for instance, he used his splitter more frequently (30.8%) than at any point prior in his career. Other aspects of Eovaldi’s game have remained constant: he still throws more strikes than Shawn Fain, and he’s consistently averaged around six innings per pop in three of the last four years. Eventually, Eovaldi will show signs of decline. Until then, he’s more than qualified to slot in near the front of some contender’s rotation. Potential landing spots: Rangers, Nationals, Diamondbacks
10. Pete Alonso, 1B
The short hook: Market predilections could cause chilled reception for the Polar Bear.
Remember, these rankings are assembled using expected annual average value as a guidepost — meaning that players with profiles oftentimes disregarded by front offices will be placed lower than you might’ve expected to find them based on their talent alone. Alonso is an affable slugger who has never failed to homer 30-plus times over a full season. Alas, he’s also a righty-hitting first baseman nearing his 30th birthday. Teams have shown they’ll make exceptions for generational talents, an Albert Pujols or a Miguel Cabrera, but Alonso falls short of that measuring stick. It won’t help his case that he’s seen his strikeout rate increase two years running, even while (oddly enough) posting the best in-zone contact rate of his career. Our guess is that the best-case scenario here is landing the Paul Goldschmidt deal plus inflation. Potential landing spots: Mets, Giants, Astros
11. Max Scherzer, RHP
The short hook: Esteemed righty is a big question mark.
Scherzer was restricted by injury to nine starts this season; none before June, and just one after August. Add in his limited availability down the stretch in 2023, and it seems fair to think that the wheels are starting to come unglued for the 40-year-old. Still, Scherzer has expressed his desire to pitch in 2025. Who are we to scoff at the idea? Besides, he performed well when he was able to, leaving us no doubt that a team will gladly sign him to a one-year pact — if only to ensure they’re mentioned some day down the road, when he’s giving his induction speech in Cooperstown. Potential landing spots: Rangers, Cardinals, Braves
12. Shane Bieber, RHP
The short hook: Tommy John surgery complicates former Cy Young Award winner’s outlook.
Think of Bieber as this class’s Tyler Mahle. (Except, you know, far more famous and accomplished). Bieber underwent Tommy John surgery in April, ending his 2024 after two appearances and likely delaying his 2025 debut until sometime into May or June. This is where the Mahle comparison is instructive; it used to be that rehabbing pitchers would have to settle for one-year arrangements. The Rangers showed that they were OK giving two years (and $22 million) to Mahle. Bieber may prefer a one-year deal so that he can try again at a bigger payday next offseason. If he does follow Mahle’s lead, though, we suspect that he’ll safely outkick that $11 million annual average value. Potential landing spots: Red Sox, Mets, Cubs
13. Ha-Seong Kim, SS
The short hook: Plus defense at shortstop, league-average stick, but shoulder woes could limit market.
Talented defensive shortstops with three years of league-average offensive production are always in demand. It’s always been that way, and it’ll remain that way until baseball stops being played because of an uninhabitable planet or cosmic catastrophe. Kim very much checks both boxes. He’s a pleasure to watch man his position, showing a particular attitude for ranging to his right. While Kim won’t be confused for a dynamic offensive player anytime soon, the improvements he’s made as a basestealer have helped offset his lackluster slugging capacity. He’s a good player. Unfortunately, he required shoulder surgery this fall that will sideline him into next season and likely suppress his earning potential. Potential landing spots: Padres, Braves, Giants
14. Anthony Santander, OF
The short hook: Switch-hitter with power, but defensive limitations could restrict market.
In addition to being living proof that there are still quality players to be unearthed in the Rule 5 draft, Santander became the first switch-hitter to homer 40 or more times in a season since Carlos Beltrán and Lance Berkman both did it in 2006. Santander isn’t a mindless slugger (not that there would be anything wrong with that); he’s adept at making above-average amounts of contact, allowing him to keep his strikeout rate underneath 20% despite what could be charitably described as an excitable approach. Unfortunately, Santander doesn’t bring much more to the table than his bat: he’s not a good defender or baserunner, meaning interested clubs will have to be confident that he can sustain his well-above-average offensive production well into his 30s. Potential landing spots: Orioles, Diamondbacks, Royals
15. Joc Pederson, OF
The short hook: Joc can sock.
We wrote last winter that the underlying measures suggested Pederson had a significantly better 2023 than his topline results indicated. Consider this past season to be a statistical course correction. Pederson had the best showing of his career, walking and slugging his way to a personal-high 151 OPS+. His game is the same as it’s been for a while now: he’s a professional hitter with some platoon issues and negative defensive value. If you’re OK with that, he’s going to give what you sign up for: plus offensive output against righties. Want more? Then you’re shopping down the wrong aisle. Potential landing spots: Diamondbacks, Reds, Angels
16. Teoscar Hernández, OF
The short hook: Still a middle-of-the-order hitter, just a year older.
Modern front offices talk a big game about paying only for the future, not the past. That preference creates some weird situations. Take Hernández. He just had a good season, his fourth in five tries, yet it’s unclear what will matter more to teams: that he provided more evidence that he’s an above-average bat, or that he’s a year older than he was last winter, his first foray into free agency. You can hope for the former, but we suspect some teams will dock him for the latter. Ever the same, Hernández’s ability to impact the baseball helps atone for his strikeout tendencies and his defensive deficiencies. Potential landing spots: Braves, Angels, Royals
17. Christian Walker, 1B
The short hook: Can really hit, but age and market tastes will suppress deal.
Over the past five offseasons, there’s been exactly one righty-hitting first baseman who signed a contract longer than two years: José Abreu with the Houston Astros. The less written about how that deal aged the better. Pete Alonso should make it two this offseason; can Walker get the count to three? We’re skeptical, though it’s not an indictment of his talent. Walker is coming off a tremendous three-year run during which he displayed both on-base and slugging capabilities. It’s also not to belittle his story — remember, this is someone who was claimed off waivers three times in a single month in 2017. Our pessimism stems from Walker’s encroaching 34th birthday. Teams haven’t shown an inclination to commit to right-right first basemen with regularity. We have no reason to believe Walker will be an exception. Potential landing spots: Diamondbacks, Mets, Giants
18. Luis Severino, RHP
The short hook: Altered arsenal led to rebound season.
Severino followed up a dreadful 2023 season by taking action. He overhauled his arsenal, upping his sinker usage and installing a sweeper as his top secondary offering. That combination, to some unknowable degree, helped him achieve better results — overall, and on his four-seam fastball. Severino’s durability woes (this was the first year he started 20 or more times since 2018) make a three-plus-year contract appear to be a risky proposition; you have to pay to play in this game, though, and we suspect at least a few teams will be willing to pony up to add a rejuvenated mid-rotation starter. Potential landing spots: Mets, Rangers, Red Sox
19. Yusei Kikuchi, LHP
The short hook: Talented lefty with some positive momentum.
The Astros were widely panned at the trade deadline when they surrendered some of their best prospects (a relative description) for Kikuchi. It wasn’t a matter of talent so much as a question of execution. Kikuchi has long been appraised as having a phenomenal arsenal; he’s just seldom performed like it. Yet he delivered for the Astros, posting a 147 ERA+ and a 5.43 strikeout-to-walk ratio across 10 starts. Kikuchi’s improvements stemmed from some startingly obvious tweaks: he reduced his fastball and curve usage and instead spammed his slider more than 37% of the time. Logic dictates teams are unlikely to put greater weight in 10 starts than the preceding 144. Still, it only takes one True Believer for Kikuchi to land a richer than expected deal. Potential landing spots: Astros, Orioles, Nationals
20. Gleyber Torres, 2B
The short hook: A blah walk year won’t stop someone from betting on a rebound season.
From the files of Contrasting, Simultaneously True Statements: Torres had a disappointing walk year, finishing with the second-lowest OPS+ of his career, yet he’s comfortably a top-25 free agent on the basis of his youth (he’s heading into his age-28 season) and his track record (he has a career 112 OPS+). While we expect Torres will take a one- or two-year pillow contract and render these next comments moot, we do have two reservations about his long-term outlook. Foremost, almost all of his power is reserved for middle-middle mistakes, with him reliably struggling to do much on pitches away; additionally, he’s already a below-average defender at the keystone, something that doesn’t bode well for his chances of providing secondary value as he ages into his 30s. Again, those concerns are likely to be more relevant for the contract after this one, but they’re worth keeping in mind as his career progresses. Potential landing spots: Yankees, Royals, Red Sox
21. Blake Treinen, RHP
The short hook: Outstanding comeback year makes him arguably the top reliever available.
Coming into the year, it was reasonable to think that Treinen wouldn’t be as effective this season as he was in 2021, when he posted a 1.99 ERA and a 3.40 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his most recent full campaign. After all, he was entering his age-36 season and had missed most of 2022-23 because of shoulder surgery. He then suffered fractured ribs and a bruised lung when he was hit by a line drive in spring training. That makes it all the more remarkable that Treinen wasn’t just as good as he was in 2021, he was measurably better: improving upon his ERA (and ERA estimators) as well as his strikeout, walk, and strikeout-to-walk rates. The sweeper he forged in 2021 has been a revelation for him, to the extent that it’s probably fair to think he has at least another season of being a high-end reliever in him — and, who knows, maybe more than that. Potential landing spots: Basically every contender
22. Clay Holmes, RHP
The short hook: Will blown saves hurt accomplished closer?
By almost any measure, Holmes had a terrific run with the Yankees. Over three-plus seasons, he amassed a 155 ERA+, a 3.45 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and 74 saves. It’s a little disheartening, then, that his final season in the Bronx saw him lose his closer’s gig after blowing 13 of his 43 save opportunities. SURE LOCK Holmes he wasn’t. Nevertheless, he made some adjustments throughout the year: first reducing his slider usage in favor of a sweeper, then leaning even more heavily into his trademark sinker. Even if Holmes hadn’t shown adaptability, his underlying measures and track record are strong enough that we believe teams will overlook his spotty save conversion rate and gladly hand over both a multi-year deal and a high-leverage role. Potential landing spots: Basically every contender
23. Jeff Hoffman, RHP
The short hook: Elite reliever ready for a payday.
Hoffman spent two seasons with the Phillies, during which he morphed into an elite reliever. The damage: a 184 ERA+ and a 4.51 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 122 appearances. He throws four pitches but he really leans on two in particular: his swing-and-miss slider (the only pitch in his arsenal that goes glove side) and his mid-to-upper-90s heater. (He’ll also chuck a splitter and a sinker.) Hoffman generates an elite amount of whiffs and chases, and he has greatly improved his control since his starter days. The only thing separating him from a 30-save season is opportunity. It’s coming. Potential landing spots: Basically every contender
24. Jurickson Profar, OF
The short hook: Breakout season with peripherals to boot, but is anyone buying in?
How much do you believe? You can run the numbers. You can watch the tape. You can consult with projection systems. You can chat with an oracle. Ultimately, player evaluation is a test of faith. No matter how you reached your conclusion, the whole thing reduces down to this: how much conviction do you hold in it? Are you willing to be wrong? If not, you’re already lost. All of this is relevant to Profar, a fascinating study case. The former No. 1 prospect finally made good on that billing, notching his first star-caliber season at the plate at age 31. The underlying measures all pointed in the right direction: he hit the ball with greater authority; he walked more; he struck out less. If he were five years younger, he’d be in line for a handsome payday. He’s not, though, so his marketplace reception hinges on how teams answer this capsule’s first question. Potential landing spots: Padres, Braves, Royals
25. Walker Buehler, RHP
The short hook: Terrible season, but some reasons for underlying optimism.
Buehler feels like this winter’s version of Luis Severino: a once-promising right-hander with an injury history and a dismal walk year (at least in the regular season) to his name. As with Severino, the pitch-grading models are a lot sweeter on Buehler’s arsenal than you might suspect they would be based on his poor results. Depending on which one you consult with, Buehler — who closed out the World Series on Wednesday night — is estimated to have three or four above-average pitches. We fully expect some team to take that information to heart and hand him a one-year pact worth around $15 million. Potential landing spots: Dodgers, Mets, Orioles
