There’s plenty of reason for No. 3 Ohio State to feel good right now. The Buckeyes, facing more adversity than they have at any point this season, went on the road and beat No. 7 Penn State despite not playing their best game of the season.
“When you’re back is against the wall, all you can do is throw punches,” defensive end J.T. Tuimoloau said afterward. “We kept swinging.”
It was a sentiment echoed by Ohio State quarterback Will Howard, who got his revenge against the Penn State program he grew up rooting for that had no interest in his services.
“Man, we willed that game to be a win,” Howard said. “We gutted it out.”
They certainly did, and it’s something Ohio State may need to get used to. Winning games cures a lot of aches and pains, but it cannot cure the fact Ohio State’s offense is struggling right now, regardless of the results.
The Buckeyes lost starting left tackle Josh Simmons during the loss to Oregon. Here’s a look at how the offense has performed in games before Oregon compared to how things have looked in the last three games.
| Ohio State Offense | Points per possession | Success Rate | EPA per pass | EPA per rush | Explosive play rate | Turnover rate | Negative play rate | Pressure rate allowed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
First 6 Games |
3.72 |
49.7% |
0.44 |
0.25 |
17.4% |
6.9% |
22.82% |
16.3% |
|
Last 3 Games |
2.18 |
44.6% |
0.34 |
-0.15 |
14.6% |
12.1% |
28.09% |
27.1% |
Now, just to remove the theory that a light nonconference slate is skewing things greatly, let’s compare Ohio State’s offense in its first two Big Ten games against Michigan State and Iowa to those same last three.
| Ohio State Offense | Points per possession | Success rate | EPA per pass | EPA per rush | Explosive play rate | Turnover rate | Negative play rate | Pressure rate allowed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
First 2 B1G games |
3.32 |
44.1% |
0.34 |
0.07 |
13.6% |
13.6% |
22.86% |
19.1% |
|
Last 3 B1G games |
2.18 |
44.6% |
0.34 |
-0.15 |
14.6% |
12.1% |
28.09% |
27.1% |
The run game is suffering the most, but while the passing offense has been productive overall, you can see by the pressure rate that Will Howard is dealing with a lot more defenders in his face than he had been all season. To his credit, Howard’s doing an excellent job of handling it, and the mobility that allows him to do so is a primary reason he was brought in to replace Kyle McCord.
There are two different ways to look at this, both of which have valid points. It’s important to mention that these offensive struggles don’t only coincide with injuries on the offensive line but also with two road games against teams ranked No. 3 in the country at the time the game was played. Looking at the rest of Ohio State’s schedule; outside of a home game against Indiana, there doesn’t seem to be much to worry about (imagine saying Indiana was a bigger concern than Michigan three months ago).
However, the other side of the coin is that while I don’t know if there’s a universe where Purdue or Northwestern beat these Buckeyes, those final two games against Indiana and Michigan are far trickier with how the injuries are impacting Ohio State’s offense. One of Ohio State’s greatest advantages over the rest of the league was it had a cruise control others lacked, but it no longer seems to be an option — at least for now.
It’s not ludicrous to think that as they play more games as presently constructed, the current iteration of Ohio State’s offensive line can improve. In fact, we should expect it to. The question is how much improvement is a realistic expectation, and will it be enough to allow Ohio State to achieve all of its lofty goals?
We’ll find out. For now, all the Buckeyes can do is what their defensive end suggested: keep swinging.
Kaleb Johnson is still good
Iowa crushed Wisconsin 42-10 Saturday night, and while new starting quarterback Brendan Sullivan brought a bit more juice to the Hawkeyes offense, running back Kaleb Johnson remained the star of the show. Now, Johnson will not win the Heisman Trophy this season, but that doesn’t mean he shouldn’t be hearing his name mentioned more often than he does when it comes to awards discussion.
I’ve written plenty about him already and consider myself A Big Kaleb Johnson Fan. I would like to do even more with some fun Kaleb Johnson stats.
Johnson scored three touchdowns against Wisconsin, bringing his season total to 20. The Iowa offense scored 22 touchdowns all last season. But last year was last year! How about we compare Johnson to some other Power Four programs in 2024?
| P4 Team or Iowa Running Back | Total Touchdowns in 2024 |
|---|---|
|
Kaleb Johnson |
20 |
|
Purdue Boilermakers |
20 |
|
19 |
|
|
Northwestern Wildcats |
19 |
|
Michigan State Spartans |
18 |
|
17 |
|
|
16 |
|
| Florida State Seminoles | 14 |
Is there a discussion to be had about four of the seven Power Four programs Johnson has matched or bettered being Big Ten programs? Yes, but let’s save it for another day.
Seasonal Affective Disorder
We set the clocks back an hour Sunday morning, which was great for those of us who needed an extra hour of sleep but terrible news for those of us who enjoy seeing the sun. It’s getting dark early in Big Ten country, and seasonal affective disorder can impact anyone, even football teams.
So, as we approach the darkness, here’s a quick look at some Big Ten teams feeling pretty sad right now.
Nebraska: Saturday’s loss to UCLA was a rough one. Not just for the game itself but for where the program is. There was plenty of optimism surrounding the Cornhuskers coming into the season in Matt Rhule’s second year, and they had a five-star QB. The 5-1 start that included a revenge victory over Colorado only added fuel to the fire, but it’s been three straight losses since.
You can excuse losing on the road to Indiana and Ohio State, but losing to UCLA at home is a tough pill to swallow. The Bruins came to Lincoln with a 2-5 record, and their only wins had been three-point victories against Hawaii and Rutgers. While the score was 27-20, UCLA led by 20 late into the third quarter.
There’s a lot of that old existential dread creeping into the psyches of Nebraska fans everywhere right now.
USC: The Trojans had a chance to beat Washington but didn’t. That’s now four losses in their last five games and five losses in their last seven. Each of the losses has been by seven points or fewer. They all feel exactly the same. After they happen, Lincoln Riley will mention that they’re only a few plays here and there from being undefeated. While that’s true, it still doesn’t do anything to change the fact that USC can’t seem to make the plays they need when they need them.
If there’s a silver lining from Saturday’s loss, it’s that USC finally leaned on its run game led by Woody Marks in the second half. They could consider sticking to that game plan the rest of the way.
Rutgers: The Knights were off last week, but I’m not sure sitting in the dark at home alone is where you want to be during a four-game losing streak. Rutgers started the year 4-0 with wins over Virginia Tech and Washington. It led to dreams of bigger things.
Now the Knights are left wondering if they can still reach a bowl. They’ll need to win at least two out of their final four. Their first chance is at home against Minnesota this week, but the Gophers are playing very well right now, so my hopes aren’t high. The reality is it will need to be two of three against Maryland, Illinois and Michigan State with only the Illini matchup being played at home.
Purdue: To be blunt, Purdue just blew its best chance at a Big Ten win over the weekend. The Boilermakers were forced to play catch-up all day at home against Northwestern, and did finally catch up to force overtime. Then overtime was a disaster and they lost to fall to 1-7 on the year and 0-5 in conference.
Their final four games? They’re at Ohio State this week; then it’s Penn State at home and two more road games against Michigan State and Indiana. The only good news here is that basketball season started Monday night.
Random Graph of the Week
Best way to read this is that you want to be in the upper right. Bottom right is good offense and bad defense. Top left is good defense and bad offense. Bottom left is basketball season.
Going with my gut
Every week I pick the Big Ten games against the spread based on nothing but my gut reaction to the number. No digging into numbers — just vibes, baby. I even track my record to embarrass myself publicly.
All Big Ten college football betting odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Check out the latest FanDuel promo to get in the game.
Michigan at No. 8 Indiana: Michigan is going to Bloomington as a two-touchdown underdog! That’s the world we live in now! One of these teams won a national title last season, and the other is favored by 14 points. Indiana’s been hammered over the head by detractors with “they ain’t played nobody” all year. I don’t know if beating Michigan will change that in the eyes of the haters, but there’s something far more important about Indiana than who they’ve played. It’s who they’ve lost to — nobody. Indiana has lost to nobody. It has won every game by at least 14 points. Indiana is a wagon, and it will win this game by at least 14 points, too. Indiana -14
Iowa at UCLA — Iowa -6.5
Purdue at No. 3 Ohio State — Purdue +37.5
Minnesota at Rutgers — Rutgers +6.5
Maryland at No. 1 Oregon — Oregon -25
Washington at No. 6 Penn State — Washington +13
Last Week: 4-4
Season: 51-43-1
