Oregon, Georgia, Miami and BYU lead the way in the first projected College Football Playoff bracket of the 2024 season. The first round of CFP Rankings were released on Tuesday, giving the nation its first look at how the College Football Playoff Selection Committee evaluates the field under the new 12-team format.
In these rankings, Big Ten foes No. 1 Oregon and No. 2 Ohio State claimed the top two spots. However, the Buckeyes pick up the 5-seed while the Ducks are projected to get the Big Ten’s auto-bid as conference champion and a first-round bye. That opens the door for No. 3 Georgia to pick up the 2-seed with No. 4 Miami and No. 9 BYU closing out the field at the top. Projected Group of Five champion Boise State slots at No. 12 both in ranking and seeding.
This first bracket includes four teams each from the Big Ten and SEC. Only one team from each the ACC and Big 12 are projected to make the field. Big Ten and SEC powers Ohio State, Texas, Penn State and Tennessee are projected to host first-round games.
Granted, this bracket is a projection at this point. None of the top four seeds will become official until each team actually wins a conference championship, which represents perhaps the biggest change from the four-team to the 12-team College Football Playoff.
Here is our first look at the College Football Playoff bracket after the first CFP Rankings.
Big 12 is the biggest loser
When Iowa State fell to Texas Tech in Week 10, it made the Big 12’s path to two teams in the field more difficult. After the first CFP Rankings, the Big 12 is almost certainly stuck at only one bid regardless of what happens and is at risk of missing out on a bye, too.
BYU came in at No. 9 in the rankings despite wins over No. 13 SMU and No. 19 Kansas State, which is more top-25 wins than the four teams ahead of it (Indiana, Tennessee, Penn State, Texas) combined. The Cougars are undefeated but being treated almost more like a one-loss team; in fact, they rank behind five teams with a loss.
Additionally, the actual one-loss team in the Big 12, Iowa State, slots all the way down at No. 17, behind four two-loss teams from the SEC alone. At least four Big 12 teams still have a shot at the CFP through a conference championship auto-bid. However, with BYU sitting at No. 9, a loss in the Big 12 title game probably keeps them out of the field entirely.
Boise State got respect
The CFP Selection Committee historically tends to be a little lower on Group of Five teams, but they gave Boise State props for what has been a strong showing so far. The Broncos are No. 12 in the initial rankings, well ahead of undefeated Group of Five contender No. 25 Army and on the precipice of contending for a bye.
The Broncos have a quality win over No. 21 Washington State with the only loss coming against No. 1 Oregon at the buzzer. The fifth conference champion can slot higher than the 12-seed if they finish higher than 12, and Boise State will have a serious chance to fight its way higher.
Elimination games are coming
There are four SEC teams ranked between No. 11 and No. 16 in the first CFP Rankings — No. 11 Alabama, No. 14 Texas A&M, No. 15 LSU and No. 16 Ole Miss. All have pivotal matchups that could extinguish their candidacy. LSU and Alabama play this week while Ole Miss hosts Georgia. Texas A&M has a big game against No. 5 Texas at the end of the year as they rekindle their rivalry.
There has been assumption that a 9-3 SEC team could get into the field, but that’s looking highly unlikely in 2024 with the sheer amount of congestion. Undefeated Indiana and BYU only add complication, and three Big Ten teams have essentially already punched tickets. None of the two-loss teams can afford more losses based on where things stand.
