College basketball is back, and though there haven’t been many marquee matchups just yet, we’ve gotten a first glimpse at teams on the court. Instead of leaning on prognostication and preseason assessments of fluctuating rosters, there are on-court results to support projections of what’s going to happen in the 2024-25 season.
Of course, the sample size is small, which means most takes at this point in the season can probably be labeled as overreactions. Let’s take Gonzaga’s 101-63 win over Baylor, for example. You could draw any number of wild conclusions about either team from that performance. Is the year the Zags finally break through and win the national title? Is Baylor going to miss the NCAA Tournament?
Then, there’s Duke and Cooper Flagg. Is he even the best freshman on his own team? Kon Knueppel led the Blue Devils with 22 points on 8 of 14 shooting in their 96-62 season-opening win over Maine. It’s easy to get carried away when 40 minutes of action are all we’ve seen.
For this week’s edition of the Dribble Handoff, our writers are each submitting an overreaction based on what we’ve seen in the season’s first few days.
The SEC will not finish as the sport’s best conference
It was notable in the preseason when the SEC replaced the Big 12 as the nation’s top-rated conference, according to KenPom.com, and when CBS Sports Bracketology Expert Jerry Palm put 11 SEC teams in his first projected bracket for the 2025 NCAA Tournament. Long season, obviously. But the first few days of it haven’t been great for the “It just means more” league. Nationally ranked Texas A&M opened with a 64-61 loss to unranked UCF. Nationally ranked Texas opened with an 80-72 loss to unranked Ohio State. Missouri opened with an 83-75 loss to unranked Memphis. South Carolina opened with a 74-71 loss to unranked North Florida.
In the meantime, the only Big 12 team that’s lost so far is Baylor — and that loss, lopsided as it was, is more understandable because that loss was a loss to No. 6 Gonzaga in downtown Spokane. And exactly zero Big Ten teams have already taken a loss. So will the SEC still be good and deep? Sure. But if the first three days of the season are any indication, it will not finish the season rated as the sport’s best league. — Gary Parrish
Time is likely up for Kyle Neptune at Villanova
No team has plunged at KenPom through the first four days of the season like Villanova. The Wildcats, who were inexplicably ranked 20th at KenPom to start the week, now sit at 59th after their embarrassing 90-80 home loss to Columbia on Wednesday. It’s the latest bad loss for Nova under Neptune, joining the likes in previous years against Portland, a bad Temple team, a road defeat to lowly DePaul, plus Penn, Saint Joe’s and Drexel. Neptune is merely 36-34 after inheriting a blue blood program that was operating at a top-five level. Now it’s losing games to mid-majors with regularity and the fan base is in despair.
The fall-off has been unbelievable. (Making matters more dire: Mark Jackson, the AD who hired Neptune, left for Northwestern.) Nova is in danger of slipping into purgatory, which would be a devastating development after its ascendence in the 2010s. A massive game at a good Saint Joe’s team awaits next Tuesday. Neptune can’t afford one more loss to a mid-major team. Whether there’s an in-season change remains a different deal. Jay Wright endorsed Neptune for the job — and Wright is still around the program — so it’s conceivable that he’ll keep his post until season’s end, but it feels like this experiment is over. — Matt Norlander
Columbia upsets Villanova as critical third season for Kyle Neptune begins in embarrassing fashion
David Cobb
Ryan Kalkbrenner is this year’s Zach Edey
Zach Edey averaged 25.2 points, 12.2 rebounds, 2.2 blocks and 62.3% shooting from the field last season en route to winning national player of the year honors.
Ryan Kalkbrenner is currently averaging 49 points, 11 rebounds, three blocks and 90.9% shooting from the field.
Granted, that’s only one game for the Creighton star — (and obviously I’m having a little fun, because no one expects that to continue for Kalkbrenner) — but is it crazy to think Kalkbrenner could be this year’s Zach Edey? The mantle for best big man in college basketball is open for the taking after the Purdue star’s exit to the NBA. And after an historic outing Wednesday night, he’s very much the early frontrunner to take the crown long held by Edey.
My bet in the preseason would have been on Hunter Dickinson by a smidge. But what if Kalkbrenner is the best center in college basketball? Or what if he’s simply the best player in college basketball, regardless of position?
Maybe it would’ve seemed an outlandish take a few weeks ago — or maybe it’s even a bit of an overreaction now — but it sure seems within the range of outcomes right now after sending a statement Wednesday vs. UTRGV. We had him as the No. 4 player in our preseason Top 101 players in the sport and suddenly that feels like it might’ve been an undersell. — Kyle Boone
Kentucky is better than Arkansas
There is one key stat that tells the story of why Kentucky is out to an early lead on Arkansas in the John Calipari breakup battle. In the Wildcats’ 103-62 season-opening win over Wright State, 30 of their 39 baskets came on assists. While many of those buckets came in transition, UK also looked better running its half court offense than Arkansas did in its opener.
The Razorbacks needed a 14-1 late run to pull away from Lipscomb in a 76-60 win on Wednesday to open Calipari’s tenure. Just 10 of their 34 made came on assists as Arkansas struggled to a 4-of-19 performance from beyond the arc. Kentucky looked like an actual team in its first game under Mark Pope. Arkansas merely looked like a collection of talent in its debut under Calipari. There’s plenty of time for things to change. But if we’re overreacting to a one-game sample size, then Kentucky is winning the breakup battle so far. — David Cobb
Gonzaga is the best team in the country
My main takeaway from the first few days of the season after watching Gonzaga’s blowout 101-63 win over Baylor on opening night was Mark Few’s team looked like the best team in the country. Every time Baylor went on a mini-run to chip away at the deficit, the Zags’ responded. Gonzaga made like miserable for Baylor’s guards with relentless pressure.
On offense, Gonzaga had a balanced scoring attack that looked like it would be sustainable throughout the entire season. Gonzaga is going to be dangerous and it wouldn’t be surprising if they were ranked No. 1 at some point this season. — Cameron Salerno
