MLB free agency predictions: Projecting contracts for top 10 players with Juan Soto hitting $600 million

Earlier this week, CBS Sports published my annual ranking of Major League Baseball’s 50 best free agents. As is tradition, I try to follow up on that piece by predicting the contracts of who I consider to be the top 10 free agents.

Although this exercise might seem like complete guesswork, there’s more to it than pulling numbers out the ether. I make extensive use of MLB Trade Rumors’ contract database to compile comparable players. I also factor in the league’s trends, as well as inflation and any other relevant variable. And yes, there’s some gut feel involved, too.

How have I fared in the past? Here are last year’s predictions. Alternatively, you can look at my average annual value projections compared to what the players actually signed for in the table below:

I was certainly too bullish on Chapman (though his recent extension has pushed him to $25 million annually, or way closer to my original projection). Beyond him, I was within $3 million AAV for five of the 10, and within $4.5 million for seven of the 10. Is that good, bad, or somewhere in between? I haven’t a clue; let’s just do better this year.

Here are my best guesses at terms for the winter’s top 10 free agents.

1. Juan Soto, OF

The industry folks I’ve polled on Soto’s contract have predicted a number in the $500 million-plus range. I’m going significantly higher than that because I think the conditions are ripe for Scott Boras to land a deal that surpasses expectations. Soto is a generational talent just entering his prime years who has both New York teams (among others) pursuing him. Maybe even this number proves conservative — especially if Boras dips his toe into the heavy deferral waters fished last winter by Shohei Ohtani. Prediction: 12 years, $600 million

2. Corbin Burnes, RHP

Finding the right comparison for Burnes is tougher than it appears. I don’t think he’s getting 10 years or more, the way that Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Shohei Ohtani did last winter; he’s much older than Yamamoto and he lacks Ohtani’s two-way capabilities. I’m also unsure if Burnes can join Gerrit Cole by fetching nine years. It seems more realistic to expect something along the lines of a seven-year pact worth $35 million annually. Prediction: Seven years, $245 million

3. Alex Bregman, 3B

There’ve only been two free-agent third basemen to clear $100 million over the last five offseasons: Kris Bryant (who signed as an outfielder) and Anthony Rendon. I doubt Bregman finds himself in Rendon’s neighborhood (seven years, $245 million), suggesting that something along the lines of Bryant’s deal (seven years, $182 million) is more attainable. Prediction: Six years, $162 million

4. Blake Snell, LHP
5. Max Fried, LHP

I’m pairing Snell and Fried because they’re both left-handed starters with undeniable track records who won’t appeal to anyone seeking traditional workhorses. I presume that the Carlos Rodón pact (that’s six years and $162 million) will serve as the model for each sinister slinger. I do wonder if teams will try to get either/both lefties to accept a five-year term, thereby giving them an inflated version of Robbie Ray‘s five-year, $115 million pact signed during the 2021-22 offseason. With that in mind, we’ll take the coward’s way out and make the same guess for both. Prediction: Five years, $150 million

6. Willy Adames, SS

It’s been a lucrative few years for free-agent shortstops. We don’t think Adames is likely to match the massive contracts signed by Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, or Trea Turner in recent winters. That leaves those inked by Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson as our best reference points. Both received around $25 million annually, but Swanson’s seven-year pact worth $177 million is a better anchor because Bogaerts’ deal stretched over four additional seasons. Prediction: Seven years, $185 million

7. Jack Flaherty, RHP

Flaherty enjoyed a resurgent season split across the Tigers and Dodgers, ensuring he won’t have to settle for another one-year agreement this winter. It’s to be seen how much teams buy into his return to form, making it tricky to manufacture a contract guess. It only takes one True Believer for Flaherty to net something akin to the first contract Zack Wheeler signed with the Phillies. Prediction: Five years, $125 million

8. Sean Manaea, LHP

As with Flaherty, it’s anyone’s guess as to how teams value Manaea’s improvements after he lowered his arm slot and added a crossfire element to his delivery. I suspect Manaea’s upcoming 33rd birthday will limit his term one way or another. Recentish deals for Hyun-Jin Ryu and Eduardo Rodriguez (both four years, $80 million) seem like relevant guideposts here — even if Manaea has to settle for one fewer year, or for an option instead of a guaranteed fourth season. Prediction: Three years, $70 million

9. Nathan Eovaldi, RHP

The list of right-handers at or around Eovaldi’s age (35 come February) to sign multi-year pacts in recent winters is short and filled with an odd range of names. There’s the elite, future Hall-of-Famer types — Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, and Jacob deGrom — and then there’s a few who you wouldn’t expect, like Collin McHugh and Kenta Maeda. I don’t think Eovaldi quite belongs with either group; I do think he gets a two- or three-year deal — perhaps two years with an option for a third? Prediction: Two years, $50 million

10. Pete Alonso, 1B

I’ve written it once, I’ve written it a million times: modern front offices do not value right-right first basemen unless they produce at generational levels. Alonso is good, but he’s not the new Albert Pujols or Miguel Cabrera. He’s just not. To wit, only one free-agent first baseman since the 2019-20 offseason has signed a contract longer than three years, and that was Freddie Freeman — a lefty. That would seem to put a cap on Alonso’s earning potential, either by limiting his AAV or his term. It takes just one front office to fall in love with the idea of adding a Proven Run Producer; should that happen, this will prove to be laughably low. So it goes. Prediction: Four years, $115 million