One of the greatest fighters in MMA history returns on Saturday night as Jon Jones defends his heavyweight championship against two-time former champion Stipe Miocic in the main event of UFC 309. Jones is making the first defense of the title he won with a first-round submission of Cyril Gane at UFC 285 in March of 2023.
Jones and Miocic were originally set to meet the following November at UFC 285 only for Jones to pull out of the bout after sustaining a pectoral injury. The two legends now meet inside the legendary Madison Square Garden in New York City.
UFC 309’s co-main event is a five-round lightweight rematch between Charles Oliveira and Michael Chandler. The pair fought for the vacant lightweight title at UFC 262 in May 2021, which Oliveira won via second-round TKO. The fight is most notable because Chandler will have been absent for two years come fight night, largely due to waiting for a highly-anticipated Conor McGregor fight that fell through.
Elsewhere on the card, rising middleweight prospect Bo Nickal makes his return when he takes on veteran Paul Craig. Nickal is one of the most decorated amateur wrestlers to make the transition to MMA and looks every bit of a future contender. He gets a durable veteran in the form of Craig, who is just 1-4 in his last five appearances. Other veterans set to make the walk on Saturday include former middleweight champion Chris Weidman when he takes on Eryk Anders and UFC record holder Jim Miller when he faces off against Damon Jackson.
Those two showdowns feature some of the sport’s most notable and accomplished fighters, and as such, there are plenty of storylines heading into the event. Let’s take a look at some of the biggest of those storylines before the fighters enter the Octagon on Saturday.
1. The Jon Jones legacy takes the spotlight
Jones is, without a doubt, one of the greatest fighters in the history of MMA. Say what you will of Jones’ history of trouble outside the cage, but he has been nearly flawless inside the confines of the Octagon. Still, Jones’ legacy has fallen on strange times since 2019. He lost his fight with Thiago Santos on one official scorecard that year and followed that up in 2020 with a fight against Dominick Reyes that the majority of media outlets believed he lost. Jones then seemed poised to finally jump to the heavyweight division in a move fans had awaited for roughly a decade but got caught up in financial squabbles with the UFC over the idea of facing then-champion Francis Ngannou. The UFC has aggressively tried to reshape the narrative around why Jones and Ngannou didn’t fight but the bout not coming to fruition was followed by Ngannou leaving the UFC and Jones finally debuting at heavyweight and beating Ciryl Gane to win the heavyweight belt.
Now, the fight fans want to see is Jones against interim champion Tom Aspinall, the man who appears to be the future of the division. Instead, Jones has expressed nothing but disinterest in that challenge, suggesting his two post-UFC 309 options are retirement or a fight with light heavyweight champion Alex Pereira.
Observers waited so long to see Jones as a heavyweight and now may see that run end without facing either of the two men who have some degree of claim as the best heavyweight in the world. Instead, Jones’ heavyweight run could end with a win over Gane — a decent fighter, but one who was outgrappled by Ngannou — and an aged, faded version of Miocic. Is there anything Jones can do on Saturday that would add to his legacy beyond winning and calling for a clash with Aspinall during his post-fight interview?
2. Why is Stipe Miocic here, and does he have a chance?
Much like Jones, there’s not much debate over Miocic’s place in the sport. He’s one of the greatest — if not the greatest heavyweight fighter in UFC history — and holds the record for most consecutive title defenses in the history of the division in the UFC. Miocic is a legend and the outcome of Saturday’s main event won’t change that.
With all that said, why is Miocic even in this position? He suffered an all-time knockout loss to Ngannou in his most recent fight and that came all the way back in March 2021. Miocic has not won a fight since his UFC 252 win over Daniel Cormier in August 2020, that’s nearly four and a half years without a victory. Tom Brady has hoisted a Super Bowl trophy more recently than Miocic has had his hand raised in the Octagon — and Brady has since played two more seasons, retired, started a broadcast career and submitted a bid to become a partial owner of the Las Vegas Raiders.
Miocic, now 42, is receiving a shot in the spirit of “We know that guy and he used to be good” of the same sort UFC fans used to tease boxing fans over. He might have a shot to win because everyone in the heavyweight division has a shot on any given night, but even the +500 Miocic odds seem a little generous considering all of the above.
3. Michael Chandler tries to ease the sting of losing out on a Conor McGregor fight
Speaking of fighters who have been out of the Octagon for a significant amount of time, Chandler returns to action against Charles Oliveira in the UFC 309 co-main event. Chandler will cross the two-year inactivity mark just days before the event. In that time, Chandler has been waiting for a fight with McGregor that never materialized, seeming to die for good when McGregor suffered an injured pinky toe and pulled out of their UFC 303 fight shortly before the event. Chandler filmed a season of The Ultimate Fighter opposite McGregor and saw proposed fight dates come and go before it all fizzled with him never getting the payday or exposure of a fight with the UFC’s biggest star.
A fight with Oliveira is a fine consolation prize, but Chandler currently sits as a +225 underdog for the rematch with Oliveira, who stopped Chandler in the second round of their UFC 262 bout for the vacant lightweight title. A loss for Chandler would be a disaster, it would be his second-consecutive loss and give him a 1-4 record over his five most recent bouts (and a 2-4 run in the UFC overall).
Chandler is a fan favorite fighter because he’s willing to throw down in wars, but going from the dream of a megafight against McGregor — and sidelining his own career while waiting for McGregor to eventually be ready and willing — only to suffer a second loss to Oliveira, would hurt in ways that are hard to fathom.
4. Is this what Madison Square Garden cards look like going forward?
UFC fans used to be able to look forward to a handful of annual events — including the annual MSG card — each year knowing they’d be served up a card loaded with huge fights. UFC 309 feels like it’s lacking the big feel of the past. Jones vs. Miocic has star power, but there’s not much mystery how the fight will play out. In fact, the UFC 309 main card doesn’t feature a single favorite currently listed under -250. Jones is -700, Bo Nickal is -1000 and Mauricio Ruffy is -750. This is a card that feels much closer to the heavily-criticized boxing pay-per-views of five to 20 years ago.
Combined with an International Fight Week card that was already weak when McGregor pulled out of his fight with Chandler only to be moderately rescued by a rushed effort to salvage the event with Alex Pereira defending the light heavyweight title in a rematch with Jiri Prochazka, 2024 has not felt like it has captured that old UFC magic for their traditional “big events.”
Either the UFC is in a transitional period as it seeks out new top stars with Jones as the only remaining member of the “old guard” stars of a generation ago, or this is what the future of the UFC looks like. Combat sports tend to work things out over a long enough timeline, boxing has gained significant momentum after a dreadful stretch of years, but the UFC’s business model of promotion above fighter and the constant churn of weekly events may have set the promotion up for some dark days in the future.
