We were reminded in Week 12 just how hard it can be to close out a strong season in college football. Up and down the rankings we had top 25 teams pushed to the limit, and while only a couple of top-20 teams finished the week with losses, it was the close calls that stood out even more.
Take Oregon, for instance, which will maintain its spot at No. 1 in the new AP Top 25 poll but not without enduring a significant struggle in a 16-13 win at Wisconsin. It was the Ducks’ eighth game in a row and fourth as the No. 1 in the country, yet through any mental or physical fatigue that may have been present, Oregon found a way to come up with the winning plays late in Madison. Texas, Boise State and Clemson also had tough road tests in Week 12 that included a potential upset scare yet all answered the challenge by overcoming early deficits or coming up with the winning scores late.
The most notable changes will come in the wake of Georgia’s win against Tennessee with the Bulldogs getting to move up after the victory and also picking up a key win for their College Football Playoff future. The logjam in the SEC standings is due in part to so many of these top teams beating each other, and each AP Top 25 voter will have to make decisions on the ballot with conflicting head-to-head results.
There’s also the issue of BYU, which lost at home to unranked Kansas in the late night slate, and how to react to the Cougars first loss of the season.
Further down in the rankings we are expecting some notable shakeups with teams moving in and out of the top 25. That’s where we did see some upsets in the form of Kansas State, LSU and Louisville all losing as favorites. That’s going to open the door for other teams to move up and voters to take some swings on their favorite two- or three-loss team from outside the top 25.
Here’s how we project the new AP Top 25 poll to look on Sunday after Week 12.
1. Oregon (Last week — 1): No team gets to breathe a sigh of relief quite like Oregon after surviving Saturday night’s upset scare with a 16-13 win at Wisconsin. The Ducks are now 11-0 for only the second time in program history, and there’s no other team in the country that can make a real challenge for No. 1,
2. Ohio State (2): The Buckeyes got off to a sluggish start in the Wrigley Field-hosted “road game,” but the moment that Northwestern slipped up even a bit, Ohio State made them pay and took control of the contest. The final 31-7 score should keep voters largely locked into their pre-game opinions on Ohio State and its standing among the top teams in the country.
3. Texas (3): As the season winds down and we get a sense of each team’s identity, it’s become clear that the real strength for Texas is on the defensive side of the ball. Whenever the offense starts to sputter a bit, the Longhorns’ defense has largely answered the call to deliver stops all season long, and that was again the case in a 20-10 win on the road against Arkansas.
4. Penn State (4): If there’s an eye test being applied to Penn State, then Saturday’s 49-10 win at Purdue counts as a passing grade. The Nittany Lions had a large voting points gap behind Texas, but that could narrow after the results for both teams in Week 12.
5. Indiana (5): The Hoosiers were off in Week 12 and will be back in action next week at Ohio State.
6. Notre Dame (8): Riley Leonard and the Notre Dame offense got off to a hot start, totaling three touchdown passes in the first half and establishing a 35-0 edge early in the third quarter that a strong Fighting Irish defense could defend the rest of the way.
7. Alabama (9): Jalen Milroe and many of the starters only needed about two and a half quarters of work before letting the backups take over in a 52-7 win against Mercer. The FCS win won’t do much for voters who will likely have Alabama slotted in the back half of the top 10, even if the Tide win out against Oklahoma and Auburn. There’s not an opportunity left for a reputation-changing win, only the threat of a punishing loss. Still, winning out keeps Alabama in the SEC title race, and given the logjam in the standings, getting to Atlanta seems to be the best way to increase the Tide’s playoff odds.
8. Ole Miss (10): The Rebels were off in Week 12 and will be back in action next week at Florida.
9. Georgia (11): The Bulldogs have a ceiling on how far they can move up because Ole Miss didn’t play and the loss to the Rebels was just last week by double digits. The significance of Saturday’s win against Tennessee will be felt more on Selection Sunday than it will on Sunday, Nov. 17, as the move up in the AP Top 25 will be marginal, but the changes in the postseason outlook are drastic.
10. Tennessee (6): Seen only through the lens of a Tennessee fan, I can understand why it makes no sense that the Vols are ranked behind an Alabama team that it beat earlier this season. And while there will be some voters who do respect that head-to-head, the conflict comes with losing to a Georgia team that also lost to the Crimson Tide.
11. Miami (12): The Hurricanes were off in Week 12 and will be back in action next week against Wake Forest.
12. Boise State (13): A tough challenge early from San José State had the Broncos on upset alert, but Boise State showed its championship caliber by storming back from a double-digit deficit on the road to win 42-21. Ashton Jeanty added 159 yards rushing and three touchdowns to his season total, and while his pacing on the chase of Barry Sanders is of interest to many, it should be noted also how he came up big in key possessions the way we expect MVP-type players to do so when a game — or the season — is on the line.
13. BYU (7): BYU’s fall after taking its first loss of the season will have an extremely predictable floor, which is what we’re projecting here at one spot ahead of SMU. The Cougars beat SMU back in September when both teams were in far different form, but it’s a good data point. The Cougars have just three victories against teams with a winning record.
14. SMU (14): The Mustangs did not have their best game but avoided a bad loss thanks to some clutch plays from quarterback Kevin Jennings and the defense that delivered a pair of fourth down stops in the second half as Boston College tried to make its final charge in a back-and-forth game that finished as a 38-28 win for SMU.
15. Texas A&M (15): AP voters had the Aggies somewhat on an island with their positioning more than 100 voting points behind SMU and more than 100 voting points ahead of Army. Given that room on either end, there’s likely not too much shuffling between those teams after the Aggies’ 38-3 win against New Mexico State.
16. Army (16): The Black Knights were off in Week 12 and will be back in action next week against Notre Dame in Yankee Stadium.
17. Colorado (18): Travis Hunter continues to build his case as a Heisman Trophy contender, offering a rushing touchdown, an interception and a highlight-reel catch to his collection of memorable moments from what’s already been a season for the ages for Colorado football. The Buffs have already doubled their win total from 2023, and at 8-2 control their own destiny in the Big 12 title race. Colorado’s slow climb in the rankings during this four-game win streak has been in part thanks to lower-end voters finally selling the skepticism, and we could see a bit more of that after Saturday’s 49-24 win against Utah.
18. Clemson (17): The Tigers kept their ACC title hopes alive in thrilling fashion as Cade Klubnik came up big in a clutch situation with a 50-yard touchdown run to help Clemson escape with a 24-20 win against Pitt. If there’s any re-evaluation or changes on the ballot from voters, it’s likely to come with some shuffling down after Clemson was scoreless for nearly the entire second half before Klubnik’s touchdown run with 1:16 left to play.
19. South Carolina (23): On a day filled with chaotic finishes, South Carolina stood out with a gusty go-ahead touchdown run from Rocket Sanders with 15 seconds left in the game that propelled the Gamecocks to a 34-30 win against Missouri. The game included three fourth quarter lead changes and late game magic from both offenses, but it’s South Carolina that will hang on in the rankings as the team improves to 7-3 overall and closes out its SEC schedule with a 5-3 record in conference play.
20. Tulane (25): A really strong showing from Tulane should have the Green Wave moving up after a 35-0 win against Navy clinched a spot in the AAC title game. Tulane is now 9-2 overall and unbeaten in conference play, but maybe most importantly has won eight games in a row since back-to-back losses in nonconference play to Big 12 and SEC competition.
21. Arizona State (NR): The Sun Devils walked into Manhattan, Kansas, and absolutely dominated Kansas State on both sides of the ball, proving they only worthy of a top 25 vote but they are potentially one of the hottest teams in the Big 12.
22. Iowa State (NR): We’re expecting the Cyclones to make a return to the top 25 after finishing as the 27th team in voting points last week. Iowa State defeated Cincinnati to improve to 8-2 on the season.
23. Illinois (NR): The Fighting Illini looked much more like their early season form in a 38-16 win against Michigan State that moved the team to 7-3 on the season.
24. Syracuse (NR): The final spots on ballots is going to provide a wide collection of teams that will receive votes this week, but Syracuse could end up as a sensible option after improving to 7-3 with a win as a 9-point underdog at Cal.
25. Memphis (NR): Voters aren’t going to be swayed by a win against UAB specifically but they are going to take notice of the Tigers’ 9-2 record. Colorado State and James Madison are other teams that could show up in this spot, but either Missouri is going to still be ranked after losing to South Carolina or a Group of Five school will break into the top 25.
Projected to drop out: No. 19 Washington State, No. 20 Kansas State, No. 21 LSU, No. 22 Louisville, No. 24 Missouri
