The BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot was revealed Monday. The ballot this year features 14 returning players, including Billy Wagner and Andruw Jones along with 14 first-timers — the big names there being Ichiro Suzuki and CC Sabathia.
Here are eight things to know and/or watch with the ballot this year. Keep in mind we’ll be doing deeper dives on most players on the ballot in the coming weeks. This is just a primer for the arguing discussions that will warm us through the winter.
1. This isn’t the only Hall of Fame vote this offseason
The BBWAA ballot is for players who have been retired for five years and they can hang on the ballot for up to 10 years by getting between 5% and 75% of the vote. Once players who don’t make the Hall of Fame either lapse off the ballot after 10 years or fall off by failing to get 5% of the vote, the doors are not shut for them forever. The system put in place to rectify former errors — in addition to leaving an avenue for managers, umpires, executives, Negro Leaguers, etc. — used to be called the veterans committee. Now the Hall of Fame uses a system called era committees.
This year, the classic baseball era committee has eight names on the ballot: Dick Allen, Ken Boyer, John Donaldson, Steve Garvey, Vic Harris, Tommy John, Dave Parker and Luis Tiant.
To be clear: This is a totally separate matter with a totally different voting body compared to the BBWAA ballot we’re discussing. The BBWAA voters have no say in this one.
2. Does Ichiro come close to 100%?
There’s one sure bet on this ballot, it is Ichiro Suzuki. You’d be hard pressed to find a serious baseball fan trying to argue that Ichiro should not be a Hall of Famer or even a first-ballot Hall of Famer. There just isn’t really a good avenue against it.
No, the real drama here will be how many votes Ichiro does not get — or if he gets every single one the way only Mariano Rivera has ever done.
3. CC with a chance at a first-ballot induction
There is, however, arguing to be done when it comes to Mr. Sabathia. Maybe. Perhaps I’m wrong and it’ll be easier for him to get in than I imagined, but I don’t feel like it’ll be the slam-dunk “yes” vote for others that it was for me.
The 6-foot-6 lefty won a Cy Young and a World Series and was a six-time All-Star. He won 251 games and struck out more than 3,000 while working more than 3,500 innings. Will his career 3.74 ERA (116 ERA+) hurt him? He’s also 55th in both JAWS and WAR (a bit below the average Hall of Fame starting pitcher).
I’ll have more on his case next month and it’s a damn good one, even if not a first-ballot Hall of Fame lock.
4. Now or never for Wagner
Let’s shift things from the first-timers on the ballot to the man with his swan song. Former elite-level closer Billy Wagner is now in his 10th and final year on the ballot. Only a few closers in recent memory, such as Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman, have made the Hall of Fame via the BBWAA vote, while Lee Smith needed to get via a committee vote. Wagner, though, is right on the cusp. He got 73.8% of the vote last season, just 1.2 percentage points shy of the threshold needed for induction. Surely in his final year, he’ll make it over the top, right? Right?
5. Jones, Beltrán, others looking to make inroads
Beyond the Wagner and the two big first-timers mentioned above, the two players with the best chance to get in this year or next would be former outfielders Andruw Jones and Carlos Beltrán.
Jones is now in his eighth year on the ballot and had a steady rise for four cycles that might have plateaued last year. He went from 19.4% to 33.9% to 41.4% to 58.1%, but then last year only rose to 61.6%. There is always a group of persuadable voters along with new voters that can help push new-school candidates like Jones (with his exceptional defense) up the ranks, but there’s also the looming possibility that a player will get to a ceiling. They just have to hope that ceiling is 75% or higher.
On Beltrán, his statistical case is pretty open-and-shut and likely would have had him in on the first ballot, but his heavy involvement in the Astros‘ 2017 sign-stealing scandal seems to be what has held him out. Will time and/or the changing voting body help? He opened at 46.5% and got 57.1% in his second try last year.
6. Playing out the string with A-Rod, Manny and Vizquel
If we only looked at on-field accomplishments, easily the top player on the ballot is Alex Rodríguez. Yes, his statistical case is arguably one of the top 10 ever. The PED cloud hanging over him has topped him out at 35.7% of the vote in three tries, though, and he even dipped a little last year.
Manny Ramírez has one of the best offensive stat lines in MLB history, too, but he’s been unable to get higher than 33.2% due to, again, two failed PED tests.
Omar Vizquel was trending toward getting in, as he received 52.6% of the vote in his third try, a steady, upward climb, but off-field allegations of domestic violence and sexual harassment reversed all his momentum and he bottomed out at 17.7% last year.
Barring something extreme here in the next few years with regard to how the vote takes place, these three will not make the Hall of Fame on a BBWAA vote. Their names on the ballot remain merely as a formality, really.
7. Can we find a Walker-, Helton- or Rolen-like rise?
On his sixth ballot, Larry Walker got only 15.5% of the vote. Todd Helton got only 16.5% in his first try. Scott Rolen got 17.2% on his second appearance. The three players are all now Hall of Famers.
In perusing this ballot, there are certainly some candidates who might catch lightning in a bottle and someday end up in the Hall. Others will fizzle out. Let’s see:
- Chase Utley – It’s his second time on the ballot and he got 28.8% last year. He’s the one to watch. If he jumps up over 40, it seems like a great sign for his future chances.
- Bobby Abreu – It seems like if he had a late run in him, it would’ve started already. He got 14.8% last year in his sixth try.
- Jimmy Rollins – He hit 14.8% last year in his third try. He’s ahead of where Walker was, at least!
- Andy Pettitte – After garnering 13.5% last year in his seventh try, it’s hard to see a late charge that gets to 75%.
- Mark Buehrle – It’s only his fifth year on the ballot, but he got just 8.3% last year.
- Francisco Rodriguez – K-Rod got 7.8% last year, which was his third try. Maybe a Wagner admission helps?
- Torii Hunter – He was at 7.3% through four ballots last year. It’s not happening.
- David Wright – Time is on his side. He got just 6.2% last year, but it was his ballot debut.
8. Past Ichiro and CC, who else joins the ballot?
The top newcomers on the ballot after Suzuki and Sabathia are Dustin Pedroia, Ian Kinsler, Felix Hernández, Troy Tulowitzki, Ben Zobrist, Curtis Granderson, Russell Martin, Adam Jones, Brian McCann and Carlos Gonzalez.
It’s possible we see some impassioned pleas for Pedroia while Kinsler, Hernández and Tulowitzki certainly shouldn’t be ignored. I think Ichiro and CC are the only legitimate chances to make the Hall, though, unless Pedroia shocks. The Red Sox lifer could hang around on the ballot and I wouldn’t be surprised if Hernández and maybe even Kinsler join him, but that’s probably it.
