Expectations are quite a thing, huh? Just two years ago, Mike Elias and his front office were the toast of Baltimore. The Orioles had emerged from a radical rebuild to win 83 games and were set up quite well with a good big-league roster and a loaded farm system. They won 101 games and the AL East in 2023! They made the playoffs again in 2024, too, marking just the second time since 1974 the Orioles were in the postseason in back-to-back seasons.
But.
There’s always a “but,” isn’t there?
The Orioles went backward with 91 wins. To be clear, 91 wins is a very good season. The Orioles were only seven games off the best record in baseball. It was also 10 games worse than in 2023 and they made the playoffs as a wild card instead of getting a bye to the ALDS again.
The biggest deal, of course, would be that this Orioles group is now 0-5 in the playoffs, having been outscored 24-12. This past year, they only scored one run in two playoff games.
And now, some of the natives are getting restless. Not all. There are plenty of patient Orioles fans out there. Keep in mind that they just went through the worst period of losing in franchise history, with 115 losses in 2018, 108 losses in 2019 and 110 in 2021.
And yet it’s perfectly reasonable to wonder something like, “did we really go through that to win zero playoff games?”
The clock is now ticking on Elias and there’s a big offseason ahead. He now needs to show that he can make the moves to put the team over the top. The teardown-and-rebuild job is done and it was done beautifully. More moves with the impact of trading for Corbin Burnes need to be made now. This is when you have to go all in.
Now the Orioles head into this offseason, hopefully seeking out the free agents that can put them over the top alongside the impressive core.
Key free agents
- SP Corbin Burnes
- OF Anthony Santander
- RP Craig Kimbrel
- OF Austin Slater
- C James McCann
- SP John Means
- DH Eloy Jiménez
- RP Danny Coulombe
- RP Burch Smith
Two names here jump out, obviously, in Burnes and Santander.
The Orioles are actually very well-positioned to retain both, should they choose to remain competitive in the bidding for their services. The only salary commitment for next season is Zach Eflin‘s $18 million and there are none on the books for 2026. They do have plenty of players in arbitration, of course, so it’s not like the payroll would be bare bones without Burnes and Santander, but they still have plenty of room, especially now that they have an ownership group that appears to be willing to spend and is motivated by winning. A novel concept, yes.
Burnes was acquired before last season to be the ace of the staff and he fit the bill for the majority of the season, including in his playoff start. In all likelihood, Burnes will finish in the top eight of Cy Young voting for the fifth straight season, including winning in the NL in 2021. He’s a bona fide ace in a league that has so few of them.
Santander has established himself as a premier power hitter, clubbing 44 homers in 2024. He’s also a switch hitter while the Orioles are pretty lefty-heavy in the outfield (Colton Coswer, Cedric Mullins and Heston Kjerstad).
Elias was asked during the winter meetings if the Orioles would swing big in free agency to replace Burnes and/or Santander if they aren’t able to retain them. The answer should make Orioles fans feel better.
“I think we will,” Elias said. “Anthony being a free agent right now, the possibility of losing him from the right side of the plate is something that we’re looking at. And then, our best starting pitcher from last year is going into the free-agent process.
“We hope it’s those guys. But those profiles will definitely be missed if it’s not those guys, and so we’re going to have to look at the market for alternatives, too.”
As far as the departing bullpen arms, keep in mind that stud closer Félix Bautista is coming back from Tommy John surgery and they’ll now have a full year of Seranthony Domínguez and Gregory Soto in addition to late-inning work from Keegan Akin, Yennier Cano and Cionel Pérez.
Biggest needs
We start with Burnes and Santander again. With the two now on the market, an ace and power-hitting right-handed bats for the outfield are the top two needs (again, Santander is a switch hitter, but the outfield is all lefties without him).
A second starting pitcher couldn’t hurt, either. As things stand, the Orioles’ rotation is Eflin, Grayson Rodriguez, Dean Kremer, Albert Suárez and Trevor Rogers. With Kyle Bradish out for a while after Tommy John surgery, I’m sure they’d love to slot two pitchers above Eflin, Rodriguez and Kremer while using Suárez as a swingman between sixth starter and long reliever.
Catching and bullpen depth are also on the list, but those are pretty common and aren’t quite as sexy as an ace and a big bat, so we can mostly focus on the first two things, even if Elias has to worry about everything.
Possible fits
Will the Orioles keep Coby Mayo around? If they wanted to make a big splash via trade, he seems like the logical player to go with Jordan Westburg at third and Gunnar Henderson at short. I suppose they could elect to trade Jackson Holliday instead and move Westburg to second base, but the point is that either Mayo or Holliday is redundant to the big-league roster, assuming both develop into everyday players. There are also plenty of minor-league position players that could be part of trade packages for frontline starters.
Onward to the fits.
Burnes and Santander – Easy and obvious and it sounds like they are the top priorities for Elias.
Max Fried – Assuming the Orioles don’t end up with Rogers as part of their Opening Day rotation, they don’t have a lefty. Fried is a free agent with Cy Young upside and postseason pedigree.
Blake Snell – The two-time Cy Young winner is looking for a long-term deal this time in free agency and, like Fried, he’s a lefty. He spent five years in this division with the Rays, so there’s some familiarity here, not that it necessarily matters.
Mariners starter? The Mariners had an outstanding rotation last year with a lackluster offense. They need to trade from strength. The Orioles need starting pitching and have a bunch of young hitters, some of whom are blocked from the big-league roster. Seems like a great fit, right? Even if the Orioles couldn’t pry George Kirby or Logan Gilbert away, perhaps Bryce Miller or Bryan Woo would be attainable.
Garrett Crochet – If the Orioles either can’t make it work with the Mariners or want to add two starters via trade, Crochet would work. He’s a left-hander with ace upside who is under team control through 2026.
Nathan Eovaldi – If the Orioles are looking to add an ace and a No. 2, Eovaldi would make a fine option. He’s going to be 35 next year, but he had a 3.72 ERA (110 ERA+) in his two Rangers years. He can pitch like a frontline starter while his age and injury history will limit his deal from getting up into ace range.
Yusei Kikuchi – Another lefty, Kikuchi should have a good market. He’s also heading to his age-34 season with a career 4.57 ERA, so it’s not like his signing team is going to have to break the proverbial bank.
Sean Manaea – Yet another southpaw! Manaea heads to his age-33 season. He had a 3.47 ERA in his 32 starts for the Mets last season and should earn a multi-year deal this time around, but still, his track record doesn’t scream monster contract. He’ll be affordable and is likely to provide pretty good production.
Teoscar Hernández – If Santander departs and the Dodgers haven’t already locked down Hernández, he’d be a great fit here. He’s a right-handed corner outfielder with great power.
Tyler O’Neill – O’Neill is a lesser, and thus, cheaper, version of Hernández. He did hit 31 homers last season in only 411 at-bats, though, so he’s absolutely worth a look as a righty masher.
Jurickson Profar – I don’t think we could call him a slugger, even if he hit a career-high 24 homers last year, but Profar is a good corner-outfield, right-handed bat in free agency. He’s coming off a career year and the Padres very much would like to keep him, but the Orioles can probably outbid them if they so choose.
Catchers – Bringing back McCann would be the easy move here, but there are a litany of other names: Kyle Higashioka, Elias Diaz, Danny Jansen, Omar Narvaez, Jacob Stallings, etc.
Bullpen arms – If the Orioles decide to try to sign someone with closer pedigree — as they did last year with Craig Kimbrel — Tanner Scott, Clay Holmes and Carlos Estévez are sitting in free agency. Otherwise, they could grab depth pieces and there they’d likely seek lefties, such as Caleb Ferguson, Andrew Chafin, A.J. Minter, Tim Hill, Drew Smyly or Genesis Cabrera.
