We have another set of intriguing games this week. None more so than No. 5 Indiana at No. 2 Ohio State. The Buckeyes are 14.5-point favorites over the Hoosiers according to betting experts and that is the kind of result that would assure IU a spot in the College Football Playoff. Well, assuming the Hoosiers beat Purdue.
In fact, the only result that would put Indiana’s CFP hopes in jeopardy would be getting boat-raced. Something like 42-3, for example.
Ohio State is already on its third left tackle due to injury and then Tuesday, we learned that the Buckeyes will be without center Seth McLaughlin for the rest of the season because of an Achilles tendon injury.
In the Big 12, No. 14 BYU will travel to No. 21 Arizona State. The Cougars took a beating in the rankings this week, dropping eight spots after losing at home to Kansas. The Sun Devils are tied for third in the Big 12 standings with No. 22 Iowa State, one game back of BYU and No. 16 Colorado. The Buffaloes host Kansas this week.
None of those Big 12 teams are ranked ahead of No. 12 Boise State, which puts the Broncos in the best position they could hope for to secure a bye as the highest ranked conference champion in the Group of Five in the CFP with three weeks to go. ACC leader SMU is also behind Boise State in the rankings, but would surely jump them if the No. 13 Mustangs go on to win the conference.
Each week, I will use this space to tell you what I think are a few of the best bets heading into the weekend. I will also throw in an upset of the week, which will be a team that is at least a touchdown underdog that I am picking to win outright.
I will also give you picks on other games involving potential College Football Playoff teams. Now that we are into November, I have expanded the Other CFP candidates list to the CFP top 16 plus the highest ranked Group of Five team if not already in the top 16.
Games against FCS opponents are not considered.
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Week 13 Picks
No. 6 Notre Dame (-14.5) vs. No. 19 Army in New York: Speaking of teams getting their first big test of the season, six of the first eight FBS teams the Black Knights have faced are 3-7 or worse. Notre Dame is a different animal. The Fighting Irish beat Navy by 37. This won’t be as bad, but Notre Dame should cover this spread comfortably. Pick: Notre Dame -14.5
Purdue at Michigan State (-13.5) on Friday: I hate beating a dead horse, especially when that horse is mine, but Purdue hasn’t covered a spread once all season. The Boilermakers have scored ten points or fewer in six of their nine FBS games this season. The Spartans have lost five out of their last six games. This is just what the doctor ordered for Michigan State. Pick: Michigan State -13.5
Wisconsin at Nebraska (-2.5): Here are two teams making adjustments on the fly. Last week, Nebraska changed offensive coordinators, elevating Dana Holgerson to the position. Wisconsin is changing coordinators this week, firing Phil Longo following Saturday’s loss to No. 1 Oregon. I have no idea who is calling plays for the Badgers this week. I think an experienced OC like Holgerson gives the Cornhuskers an edge and not much of one is required. Pick: Nebraska -2.5
Upset of the Week
Vanderbilt at LSU (-7.5): Normally, I wouldn’t pick this game, but nothing normal is happening at LSU. Calls for coach Brian Kelly’s job are ringing in his ears after Saturday’s lackluster 27-16 loss at Florida. The Commodores were not especially competitive at South Carolina in its last game, but have otherwise played well in the SEC. This pick depends a lot on which LSU team shows up. Pick: Vanderbilt
Other CFP candidates
- No. 5 Indiana at No. 2 Ohio State (-13.5) Pick: Ohio State
- Kentucky at No. 3 Texas (-20.5) Pick: Texas
- No. 4 Penn State (-11.5) at Minnesota Pick: Penn State
- No. 7 Alabama (-13.5) at Oklahoma Pick: Alabama
- Wake Forest at No. 8 Miami (-24.5) Pick: Wake Forest
- No. 9 Ole Miss (-10) at Florida Pick: Ole Miss
- UMass at No. 10 Georgia (-42.5) Pick: Georgia
- UTEP at No. 11 Tennessee (-41.5) Pick: Tennessee
- No. 12 Boise State (-22.5) at Wyoming Pick: Boise State
- No. 13 SMU (-9.5) at Virginia Pick: Virginia
- No. 14 BYU at No. 21 Arizona State (-3) Pick: BYU
- No. 15 Texas A&M (-2.5) at Auburn Pick: Texas A&M
- No. 16 Colorado (-2.5) vs. Kansas at Kansas City Pick: Colorado
SportsLine’s proven computer model is calling for 12 outright upsets in Week 13 of college football. Visit SportsLine now to see them all, plus get spread picks for every game from the model that simulates every matchup 10,000 times.
