It was another rough go with my against-the-spread picks last week as I went 6-8, but I was 11-3 straight up.
So some good and some bad — as usual.
One of these weeks, it will be all good again. Or am I fantasizing? It has to change, right?
The season records are now 100-66 straight up and 75-88-3 ATS. That means I need to get it turned around in a big way to get back over .500 ATS. The weeks are passing by, so that needs to start this week. I see a big week ATS and straight up.
It is November, which means it’s surge time. Thanksgiving is next week and I would love to be closing in on .500 as we hit December.
All NFL odds via Caesars Sportsbook. Check out the latest Caesars promo to get in the game.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5) at Cleveland Browns
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Prime Video)
The Steelers are playing well, while the Browns are not. But this is a division game on a short week on the road. That’s tough for any team. And Russell Wilson wasn’t good last week. The Browns will show up for this one and keep it close. The Steelers will win it with a late Chris Boswell field goal, but it’s tight.
Pick: Steelers 20, Browns 17
Kansas City Chiefs (-11) at Carolina Panthers
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Chiefs are coming off their first loss to the Bills, while the Panthers are coming off a bye. With the Chiefs losing, their focus will be good. That will matter. They regroup and beat up on a team they are much better than from a talent standpoint. The Chiefs get back on track.
Pick: Chiefs 32, Panthers 13
Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) at Chicago Bears
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo try for free)
The Bears lost a heartbreaker last week, but the Vikings are off two straight road victories and now must play on the road for a third straight week. That won’t be easy. But I think this will be a game won by the defense as they throw a bunch of looks at Caleb Williams and force turnovers. The Vikings will win it.
Pick: Vikings 23, Bears 17
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (-8)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Texans are playing on a short week, but they looked better on offense against Dallas with Nico Collins back. The Titans will have trouble stopping them this week, so look for the Texans and C.J. Stroud to play well. Will Levis won’t keep up.
Pick: Texans 31, Titans 21
Detroit Lions (-7.5) at Indianapolis Colts
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo try for free)
The Colts looked good winning on the road at the Jets last week, but this is a major step up in competition. The Lions offense is clicking again and should have success against the Colts defense. The question is whether Anthony Richardson can do it two weeks in a row. I will take the Lions in this one.
Pick: Lions 30, Colts 17
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (-7)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Dolphins have won two straight off the bye to get back into the playoff race. Tua Tagovailoa is playing well since his return from the concussion issues. The Patriots have done some good things with Drake Maye, but this is a tough matchup on the road. Miami wins another.
Pick: Dolphins 32, Patriots 21
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5.5) at New York Giants
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
This is Tommy DeVito in at quarterback for the Giants, who benched Daniel Jones. It won’t matter. The Giants offense has struggled for a variety of reasons, not just quarterback. The Bucs are coming off a bye and they are getting healthier, which matters. They win it.
Pick: Bucs 27, Giants 13
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Commanders (-10)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo try for free)
The Cowboys are a mess right now, while the Commanders are coming off a tough loss to the Eagles. They played on a Thursday, so they have extra rest, while the Cowboys are on the road off a Monday night game. Washington is the better team and that extra rest will do Jayden Daniels wonders. Blowout.
Pick: Commanders 31, Cowboys 16
Denver Broncos (-5.5) at Las Vegas Raiders
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
This is a be-careful game for the Broncos. They are riding high after their impressive victory over the Falcons last week. But this is a division game on the road. That matters. The Broncos will win it, but it will be close thanks to a solid defensive effort by the Raiders.
Pick: Broncos 20, Raiders 17
San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers (-2.5)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo try for free)
The 49ers are reeling right now. They just don’t look like the same team and now they face a tough Packers team that had them beat in the playoffs last year before folding late. The Packers still haven’t looked great on offense This season, but the 49ers haven’t been the same team period. Look for Jordan Love and the Packers offense to play well here. Packers take it.
Pick: Packers 27, 49ers 20
Arizona Cardinals (-1) at Seattle Seahawks
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo try for free)
The Cardinals are off a bye, while the Seahawks are off a tough, physical victory over the 49ers. That wears on a team. Seattle looked good on defense in that game, but Kyler Murray is playing well right now. He will in this one as the Cardinals win a key division game to stay in first place.
Pick: Cardinals 23, Seahawks 20
Philadelphia Eagles (-3) at Los Angeles Rams
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, fubo try for free)
The Eagles have righted their issues from earlier in the year to take a hold of the NFC East. But this is a long trip against a good team that can’t really afford any more losses. With the Rams offense back on track with return to health of their receivers, I think they show up here and pull off the upset.
Pick: Rams 28, Eagles 21
Bonus: The SportsLine Projection Model has revealed its Week 12 NFL picks, including the Eagles-Rams game on Sunday night. Check out the other picks at SportsLine.
Baltimore Ravens (-3) at Los Angeles Chargers
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN, fubo try for free)
The Ravens are playing consecutive road games after losing a tough, physical battle to the Steelers last week. The offense was disjointed in that game, but now must face another good defense. The Chargers beat the Bengals behind the play of the offense and I think that will carry over as they win the battle of the Harbaugh brothers.
Pick: Chargers 31, Ravens 26
