Earlier this offseason, you may recall that we attempted to divine who would sign free-agent outfielder Juan Soto by ranking all 30 clubs based on their perceived likelihood to strike a deal. As part of the process, we clocked the Boston Red Sox as the seventh-most likely landing spot for Soto, writing in part: “This is probably overrating the Red Sox, but they should be a team mentioned alongside the top free agents.”
The Red Sox, to their credit, have since met with Soto in an effort to recruit him to Boston. Will it work? Probably not, if we’re being honest — not with the Yankees, Mets, and Dodgers (among others) also vying for his services. Still, Boston’s Soto meeting is a good enough reason for us to expand on our stated belief that the Red Sox should be aggressive this offseason.
1. Competent core in place
The Red Sox have failed to make the postseason in each of the last three years, but that doesn’t mean they have a bad roster. They’ve played at or around the .500 level, all the while amassing a core that includes 20-somethings like third baseman Rafael Devers, outfielders Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu, and utility player Ceddanne Rafaela. Add in pitchers Tanner Houck and Brayan Bello, and you have the start of a good club.
Indeed, Boston ranked 11th in offense last year, according to FanGraphs’ park-adjusted wRC+ measure. Additionally, the Red Sox placed sixth in ERA among starting rotations. The bullpen, conversely, weighed down Boston’s pitching staff. Not only did the Red Sox have one of the highest relief ERA in the majors, they ranked second-to-last in meltdowns, ahead of only the historically pathetic Chicago White Sox. With a competent bullpen in tow, the Red Sox might’ve made the postseason.
Of course, there’s no real need to play the hypothetical game. Not when these Red Sox have a golden opportunity to gain real ground this offseason. That begins with their ability to graduate a number of key young players to the big leagues next summer.
2. Reinforcements are closing in
Come Monday, CBS Sports will publish the first half of our annual prospect rankings. Here’s a spoiler: the Red Sox will have three players in the top 25, including two in the top five in outfielder Romany Anthony and infielder Kristian Campbell. Anthony and Campbell, the minor-league breakout player of the year, both seem certain to reach Fenway Park for their debuts sometime in 2025.
Based on that fact alone, the Red Sox would be wise to shift into high gear. Here’s the kicker: Anthony and Campbell are just two of several notable prospects nearing arrival.
The Red Sox also have infielder Marcelo Mayer and catcher Kyle Teel — both former top-15 draft picks — nearing the big-league shores. In other words, they could fold four new players into their starting lineup next season without spending a dime.
As we noted above, the Red Sox already have a solid core in place. Introducing four touted youngsters to the mix should create some interesting opportunities for the Boston brass to address other parts of their roster, be it through trade or, yes, free agency.
On that note, let’s tackle the benefit of having a bunch of young players: the savings.
3. Financial flexibility
One of baseball’s dirty little secrets is that teams want young players not because they’re more athletic or because it’s more honorable to develop your own players than it is to sign or trade for someone else’s, but because they cost less money than their established counterparts. To wit, if the four players above each spend the entire season in The Show (they won’t), they’ll make a trifling $3 million combined. For comparison, that’s half what the Red Sox will pay injured reliever Liam Hendricks.
The Red Sox, then, owe it to themselves to leverage this situation by repurposing the savings into talent elsewhere on the roster. What’s more is that Boston’s front office has reduced payroll in each of the last two winters, leaving them positioned well beneath the luxury tax line. There is, to be blunt, no reason for the Red Sox to roll into spring training without making at least a few notable additions to the roster.
What and/or who, precisely, that could entail is up to top executive Craig Breslow.
Already this offseason, the Red Sox have extended the qualifying offer to right-hander Nick Pivetta — Pivetta will reportedly decline the offer, but extending it was a low-risk maneuver for the Red Sox. Boston has been linked to White Sox lefty Garrett Crochet and free-agent shortstop Willy Adames, among others, and it wouldn’t be too surprising to see the Red Sox mentioned in connection to the other top starting pitchers available this winter, including Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, and Blake Snell.
The exact combination the Red Sox land on will become evident over the next few months. From our perspective, though, this is the opportune time for the Red Sox to remember that they’re a large-market behemoth — and then to behave like it.
