CONMEBOL WCQ panic meter: James Rodriguez and Colombia in tricky spot; Brazil at risk after draws

The final international break of 2024 has seen us reach the 12-game mark in the CONMEBOL zone’s FIFA 2026 World Cup qualifiers with six more to come as the process has now reached the two-thirds mark. As ever, South American international soccer is the place to be of late with involvement in the Mexico, Canada and U.S. event raising the stakes higher. Argentina still lead the way but are now trailed by Uruguay and a five-point gap while Paraguay were arguably the big winners this November with a famous win over Lionel Messi’s Albiceleste and then a late draw with positional rivals Bolivia.

We take a look at the teams that did not fare so well.

Standings

1. Argentina, 25 points (+14 GD)
2. Uruguay, 20 points (+8 GD)
3. Ecuador, 19 points (+7 GD)
4. Colombia, 19 points (+5 GD)
5. Brazil, 18 points (+6 GD)
6. Paraguay, 17 points (+1 GD)
7. Bolivia, 13 points (-14 GD)
8. Venezuela, 12 points (-4 GD)
9. Chile, 9 points (-11 GD)
10. Peru, 7 points (-12 GD)

Peru

Now rock bottom with seven points from 12 games, Jorge Fossati’s men are currently two points adrift of upwardly mobile Chile as 2024 comes to a close. La Bicolor are six points back on seventh place which is the playoff berth and will rue a missed chance to gain ground on the Chileans with a 0-0 draw last week which could prove costly. Sure, the Peruvians only lost narrowly to Argentina 1-0 in Buenos Aires but there are no points for that — especially in a cutthroat zone like CONMEBOL. It might have been more respectable but Chile winning 4-2 against Venezuela now makes the Bolivian and Vinotinto clashes crucial for Fossati and his players. Even then, Paraguay is arguably the Blanquirroja’s most winnable remaining game with Colombia, Ecuador and Uruguay also to come.
Panic meter rating: 9/10

Venezuela

Presently falling behind in the race for a FIFA 2026 World Cup berth are the Venezuelans who are in eighth which is one single point behind Bolivia in a race for the playoff place. However, a five-point gap to Paraguay in the last automatic spot means that it is essentially already a footrace between the Vinotinto and La Verde for that playoff berth. Peru and the Bolivians are arguably the only games that Fernando Batista’s troops can truly hope to win, so anything against Ecuador, Uruguay, Argentina or Colombia could prove to be crucial. A draw with Brazil this month was worthy of credit but a 4-2 loss to Chile was poor and has removed that as soon as it was earned.
Panic meter rating: 6/10

Colombia

The Cafeteros have dropped down to fourth after an unexpected pair of potentially damaging losses this month. The Colombians went down 3-2 to Uruguay in very late circumstances when a point had seemed within reach and then a narrow 1-0 loss to Ecuador despite playing most of the game with 11 men vs. 10 will not have pleased Nestor Lorenzo at all. Down from second to being two points ahead of the last automatic place, Colombia are at least six points clear of the playoffs. However, they are also six points behind leaders Argentina now with Paraguay, Peru, Bolivia and Venezuela likely to see some points in the remaining games. It could be that Brazil and the Albiceleste results could shape the race for top spot as far as James Rodriguez and his teammates are concerned.
Panic meter rating: 3/10

Brazil

Finishing the year in fifth after drawing with both Venezuela and Uruguay, the Selecao are five points clear of playoffs, but now seven behind leaders and bitter rivals Argentina. Paris Saint-Germain’s Marquinhos appealed to fans to not turn their backs on the Brazilian team but Dorival Junior and his players are well and truly still up against it after this. A tough initial run of Colombia, Argentina and Ecuador means that it might get worse before it gets better for Vinicius Junior and his fellow countrymen. There is no choice but to hope that the final run of games including Paraguay, Chile and Bolivia end up providing crucial points so as to not get dragged closer to the playoffs as the games tick down.
Panic meter rating: 8/10