Tiebreaker scenarios give half of the conference at least a shot at Arlington entering Week 14
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The ballooning of conference membership, coupled with divisionless standings, has added substantial complexity to tiebreaker scenarios for conference championship game races across college football. But nowhere has it been more apparent than in the Big 12.
Nine teams are still alive to reach the Big 12 Championship Game with one week left in the regular season: Arizona State, Iowa State, BYU, Colorado, Baylor, Kansas State, TCU, Texas Tech and West Virginia. There are more than 250 different “scenarios” that could play out in an eight-way tie, per the Big 12 office.
Arizona State, Iowa State, BYU and Colorado all enter Week 14 with 6-2 records in conference play. If they all win, the most likely scenario is Arizona State vs. Iowa State in Arlington. Meanwhile, Deion Sanders’ Colorado no longer controls its own title game destiny after suffering a second loss in conference play to Kansas.
Per CBS Sports’ Dennis Dodd:
The simplest way to put this is to say that two teams that end up with two losses (at 7-2) are in the Big 12 Championship Game. From there it gets complicated. In a four-way tie where all the top four teams win, most likely Arizona State plays Iowa State. That is a tiebreaker broken by common opponents. However, the Big 12 office said “there are scenarios” where the Sun Devils and Cyclones can win and not make the championship game. That would involve common opponents of other teams.
In a way three-way tie featuring Colorado, Iowa State and Arizona State, a Texas Tech win against West Virginia puts Colorado in. In that scenario it would be Colorado against either Iowa State or Arizona State. Again, common opponents’ records would be determined to separate the Cyclones from the Sun Devils.
Three-team tie scenarios:
- Colorado loss: Arizona State vs. Iowa State
- Arizona State loss: Iowa State vs. BYU
- Iowa State loss: Arizona State vs. BYU
- BYU loss:
- If Texas Tech defeats West Virginia, then
- If Baylor beats Kansas and Cincinnati beats TCU: Colorado vs. Iowa State
- Otherwise: Colorado vs. Arizona State
- If West Virginia defeats Texas Tech: Arizona State vs. Iowa State
- If Texas Tech defeats West Virginia, then
Big 12 championship odds
Arizona State is the favorite to win the Big 12 at +135, followed by Iowa State +260, BYU +320 and Colorado +650. Odds via Fanduel. See what betting sites say about the upcoming Week 14 slate in college football. Use FanDuel promo code to get in the game.
