Media weren’t the only ones on deadline Saturday night.
The Big 12 stepped up, big time. The college football world needed to know what was going on with the conference’s tiebreakers. The office worked overtime in getting them out.
That beat the heck out of the Big Ten which took until last Tuesday to determine its best team, Oregon, had clinched a spot in the conference championship game.
The 16-team Big 12 has fallen into a four-way tie at the top between Arizona State, Colorado, BYU and Iowa State. If you have a problem with everybody in the league having at least two losses, you might want to first have a word with the SEC.
But heading into the final week of the regular season, the Big 12 has the craziest road.
- Those four teams are all tied at 6-2. The simplest way to put this is that the two teams who end up with two losses (at 7-2) are in the Big 12 Championship Game.
- From there it gets complicated. In a four-way tie where all the top four teams win, most likely Arizona State plays Iowa State. That is a tiebreaker broken by common opponents. The odds reflect this. According to FanDuel, Arizona State is the favorite to win the Big 12 at +135, followed by Iowa State +260, BYU +320 and Colorado +650.
However, the Big 12 office said, “there are scenarios” where Arizona State and Iowa State can win and not make the championship game. That would involve common opponents of other teams.
We’ll highlight one three-way tie because of the rabbit holes are too deep to go through all the possibilities.
In a way three-way tie featuring Colorado, Iowa State and Arizona State, a Texas Tech win against West Virginia puts Colorado win. In that scenario it would be Colorado against either Iowa State or Arizona State. Again, common opponents’ records would be determined to separate the Cyclones from the Sun Devils.
That’s one possibility of a three-way tie (where BYU loses).
- But a three-way tie has to be defined first. Is it a three-way for one spot after one team finishes on top at 7-2 or is it a three-way tie at the top for two spots?
- What if BYU, ASU, ISU and CU all lose? That puts in play the possibility of a six-, seven- and even an eight-way tie. That in general favors Baylor and Texas Tech followed by K-State and West Virginia.
In the event of an eight-way tie there are 256 different “scenarios” that could play out according to the Big 12.
An eight-way tie is created by all four of the top teams losing as well as Kansas State, TCU and Baylor winning to all finish 6-3. The winner of Texas Tech-West Virginia would also finish 6-3. There are nine teams alive for the eight-way tie, as Texas Tech vs. West Virginia will cancel one of each other out.
In an eight-way tie, Baylor and Texas Tech have the advantage. Yes, this is likely the craziest college football tiebreaker we’ve ever seen.
Big 12 games of consequence on last weekend of 2024 season
Friday
Oklahoma State at Colorado, noon ET
Saturday
Kansas at Baylor, noon ET
West Virginia at Texas Tech, noon
Arizona State at Arizona, 3:30
Kansas State at Iowa State, 7:30
Houston at BYU, 10:15
MORE: Colorado latest to fall victim to Kansas, the conference’s best team that won’t go bowling
