We’re now entering the stretch run of the 2024 NFL season, and all eyes are on the playoff race. The field itself is coming into view, but there are also some internal battles within those fields that are important. Who advances in the postseason, obviously, is heavily dependent on who achieves which seed in their respective conference.
That’s what we’re looking at here today. Thanks to some help from the SportsLine projection system, we’re taking a look at some of the most pertinent seeding battles that will play out over the remainder of the season.
AFC No. 1 seed
SportsLine’s numbers favor the Bills (10-2) over the Chiefs (11-1) for the top spot in the AFC, despite Kansas City being a game ahead at the moment. Buffalo has the benefit of the tiebreaker by virtue of its head-to-head win over Kansas City, as well as an easier schedule: The Bills have two games left against the Patriots and one against the Jets, while the Chiefs have four games left against teams currently in the AFC playoff field. The Steelers are a full game back of Buffalo and two back of K.C., and they play the Chiefs in Week 17. But they also have to play the Eagles and Ravens, so it’s going to be pretty difficult to close that gap.
AFC No. 2 seed
- AFC West champion: 44%
- Bills: 39%
- Steelers: 14%
- Everyone else: 3%
Because the Bills are actually favored to get the top seed, SportsLine has the Chiefs/Chargers getting the No. 2 spot a plurality of the time. Those two AFC West teams play each other in Week 14, but even if the Chargers pull out a victory, they’ll still have to make up a two-game gap in the remaining four games and win the tiebreaker. In other words, this seed is going to come down to the Chiefs, Bills and Steelers. Pittsburgh, as mentioned, has the toughest schedule of the three.
AFC Nos. 5, 6, 7 seeds
- Chargers: 44% (No. 5), 34% (No. 6), 12% (No. 7)
- Ravens: 32% (No. 5), 34% (No. 6), 8% (No. 7)
- Broncos: 8% (No. 5), 18% (No. 6), 57% (No. 7)
- Steelers: 8% (No. 5), 12% (No. 6), 3% (No. 7)
The Chargers are a half-game ahead of the Ravens and Broncos at the moment, with Baltimore and Denver each taking its bye this week. If L.A. can beat K.C., these probabilities will obviously change quite a bit. The Chargers-Broncos and Ravens-Steelers games in Week 16 will shake this race up as well. Baltimore is going to need another Pittsburgh loss, in addition to beating the Steelers on their own, in order to jump out of this part of the bracket and secure a first-round home game. The Ravens have the easiest remaining schedule of any AFC playoff contender, due to the fact that two of their four games are against the Giants and Browns.
NFC No. 1 seed
Detroit has a one-game lead on both Philadelphia and Minnesota. It also has the toughest remaining schedule of any playoff contender, and third-toughest of any team in the league. The Lions have games remaining against the Bills, Vikings, Packers, Bears and 49ers. Those Vikings and Packers games obviously have a significant effect on the race for the NFC North race as well. Green Bay is two games back, though, and thus needs a second Lions loss in addition to winning their one-on-one battle, but can’t have that loss be against Minnesota unless the Vikings also lose another game to set up a tiebreaker situation. That’s why the Vikings have a 6% chance at this seed and the Packers are in the “everyone else” group. The Eagles are pretty safe in the NFC East race — even if they lose to Washington in Week 16.
NFC No. 3 Seed
- NFC West champion: 69% (Seahawks: 54%; Cardinals: 26%; Rams: 16%; 49ers: 4%)
- NFC South champion: 31% (Falcons: 50%; Buccaneers: 49%; Saints/Panthers: < 1%)
I was pretty surprised that the SportsLine odds had the NFC South champion with such a large chance of getting the No. 3 seed until I remembered that the current leader (Atlanta) is only one game behind the current NFC West leader (Seattle). The entire NFC West is between 7-5 and 5-7, while the Falcons and Bucs are both 6-6. This one is going to go down to the end.
NFC No. 5 seed
- Vikings: 55%
- Packers: 24%
- Lions: 20%
- Washington: < 1%
This seed is almost certainly going to the second-place team in the NFC North. We’ve got a 79% chance of that being one of the Vikings and Packers, with Minnesota being favored due to having a one-game lead. And then there’s the chance that the Lions drop out of first place, which could conceivably happen with games against both teams and the Bills.
