Fantasy Football is all about the matchups. Even though you drafted your team with certain hopes and intentions, your weekly lineup decisions shouldn’t be determined by the order you picked your players in. You need to check who your players play and make sure you’ve got the right guys in — and the wrong guys out.
It’s too early to be absolutely sure which matchups will be easy and which ones will be tough, but we can take some educated guesses based on healthy personnel, defensive schemes, track records, and key details of offenses. The things we know can help us minimize the impact of the things we don’t know. This should lead to better decisions being made.
We’ll go through every game and highlight the players who aren’t obvious starts and sits (because you don’t need to be told to start Derrick Henry). You should feel more comfortable starting or sitting players based on the information given, and feeling comfortable with your Fantasy lineup before the games start is the best feeling in the world.
More Week 14 content:
Three significant injuries figure to impact the Lions defense: D-linemen Levi Onwuzurike and Josh Paschal are both expected to miss Thursday’s game, and linebacker Malcolm Rodriguez is out for the season with a torn ACL. There might also be a fourth: veteran defensive tackle D.J. Reader didn’t practice early this week. The run defense already figures to take a hit without Rodriguez and his 0.0% missed tackle rate per Pro Football Focus, but losing Reader and, to a lesser extent, Paschal would be significant. Onwuzurike and Reader’s absences would be felt in pass-rush situations as well. Green Bay’s allowed a modest 34.5% pass rush pressure rate with four sacks in its past five games, including zero to the Lions in Week 9. These injuries might be too much for the Lions defense to make a dent against an improving Jordan Love and Josh Jacobs.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Josh Jacobs, Jahmyr Gibbs (No. 2 RB), Amon-Ra St. Brown
STARTS: Jared Goff, Jordan Love, David Montgomery, Sam LaPorta, Tucker Kraft
FLEX: Jayden Reed, Jameson Williams (non-PPR)
SITS: Christian Watson (bye-week WR), Lions DST, Packers DST
In the past four games, Garrett Wilson has seen eight targets of 10-plus Air Yards and has caught only one. By comparison, Davante Adams has seen nine targets of 15-plus Air Yards in those past four, but even he’s caught just two. Mounting injuries in the Dolphins secondary might encourage Aaron Rodgers to attack downfield, but his accuracy hasn’t been great (23.1% off-target rate last week), his offensive line could be further depleted (potentially three starters out), and the Dolphins pass rush is very much set-up for a bounce-back game after getting zero sacks last week. Miami’s secondary has some injury issues itself, but Jalen Ramsey is still playing well and could stick to Garrett Wilson, much like he stuck to Puka Nacua when the Dolphins played the Rams about a month ago. It builds to Wilson being tough to trust even though his target volume has been great lately.
OBVIOUS STARTS: De’Von Achane, Breece Hall (No. 2 RB), Tyreek Hill
STARTS: Tua Tagovailoa, Davante Adams (No. 2 WR), Jonnu Smith (top-5 TE), Dolphins DST
FLEX: Garrett Wilson, Jaylen Waddle
SITS: Aaron Rodgers, Allen Lazard, Raheem Mostert (desperation RB), Tyler Conklin, Braelon Allen, Isaiah Davis, Jets DST
In a blink, both of these defenses ditched their zone-heavy pass coverage ways in favor of getting more pressure on the quarterback. It’s worked out for both in very limited sample sizes. The Falcons came out of the bye last week with their highest rate of man-to-man coverage in a game this year, stunting Justin Herbert for much of their matchup and sacking him five times without necessarily dialing up more blitzes. The Vikings have turned the dial to man-to-man coverage over their past two games, much more so last week against the Cardinals than in Week 12 against the Bears. It showed — Kyler Murray was a mess for much of the game as the Vikings blitzed on 54% of his dropbacks, though they only sacked him once. I expect both defenses to keep drumming up pressure with the effects hampering Kirk Cousins more than Sam Darnold, who has overcome early-career flaws to notch a phenomenal 8.6% TD rate when pressured this year, along with an 8.5% TD rate against man-to-man coverage this year.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Bijan Robinson, Justin Jefferson
STARTS: Sam Darnold, Aaron Jones, Drake London (low-end No. 2 WR in non-PPR), T.J. Hockenson (low-end starter), Kyle Pitts (borderline starter), Vikings DST
FLEX: Jordan Addison, Darnell Mooney
SITS: Kirk Cousins, Tyler Allgeier, Cam Akers, Falcons DST
In Nabers’ first four games after his concussion with Daniel Jones under center, he averaged 8.5 yards per catch, had 1.6 yards after catch per reception, and accounted for a three plays of over 15 yards (but not 20 yards). Without Jones, Nabers has averaged 9.5 yards per catch, had 2.4 yards after catch per reception, and three plays of over 15 yards, but one went for 21 yards! These numbers would be fine if he were a mediocre tight end, but he’s supposed to be a cornerback-rocking stud receiver. The fact is he has yet to even see a target of 20-plus Air Yards since Jones’ benching, and he only saw eight (with zero catches) in the four games prior. It’s gross negligence of one of the league’s young phenoms, but there’s hope for a semblance of improvement this week against New Orleans. The Saints fired Dennis Allen three games ago, and since then, no team has allowed more PPR points to receivers. In fact, four wideouts have posted at least 17.3 PPR points against New Orleans in those three games, and 5 of 6 receivers with at least seven targets pulled down at least 9.6 non-PPR/14.6 PPR points. This is the beacon of hope for Nabers — if he can just catch some passes without having a defender within arm’s reach, he might be able to actually help your Fantasy team and maybe even help the Giants win.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Alvin Kamara
STARTS: Tyrone Tracy, Malik Nabers (No. 2 WR), Juwan Johnson (borderline starter), Saints DST
FLEX: Marquez Valdes-Scantling
SITS: Derek Carr, Drew Lock, Devin Singletary, Wan’Dale Robinson, Darius Slayton, Kevin Austin Jr., Daniel Bellinger, Giants DST
Did last week’s letdown by Chuba Hubbard against the Bucs make him easier to sit this week against the Eagles? It’s possible, but it’s hard to sit a guy who had a nine-week streak of 17-plus touches snapped. Hubbard looked fine last week, showing persistent patience and cuts in his runs without much breakaway speed, which is sort of who he is. His offensive line was manhandled at times, and that led to some weak gains. The Eagles run defense has held opposing backs to four yards per rush and an impressive 5.5% explosive rush rate in its past four games, with just two rushing scores allowed. The Panthers run a lot of zone-run scheme plays, and the Eagles have been susceptible to those kinds of plays in their past three games (33 RB carries, 4.6 yards per rush, both touchdowns allowed all on zone runs). That might help Hubbard’s efficiency, but the combination of a potentially bad game script and more involvement from rookie Jonathon Brooks, who played 10 more snaps in Week 13 than he did in Week 12 — and he looked good as a runner, receiver and pass blocker — all put a cap on just how many touches Hubbard will get. I might expect another week with under 15 touches.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown
STARTS: Eagles DST
FLEX: Adam Thielen (PPR), Chuba Hubbard (low-end No. 2 RB at best)
SITS: Bryce Young, David Moore, Xavier Legette, Grant Calcaterra (bye-week TE), Tommy Tremble, Jonathon Brooks, Kenneth Gainwell, Jahan Dotson, Panthers DST
With the forecast for Sunday in Pittsburgh cloudy with some wind, chances are we will see different approaches and different results from their Week 12 snow-globe game. Cleveland has all but abandoned the run since Jameis Winston took over, averaging 20 RB carries per game and amassing just 3.4 yards per carry with them. The Browns O-line hasn’t helped. It should point to another high-volume passing game for Winston, who totaled just three pass attempts in the first quarter and five in the third quarter of his game versus Pittsburgh two weeks ago. By the end of that game, he was completing passes in those conditions, and there’s nothing to deter Winston from throwing 40-plus times this week. Winston’s basically had 41 or more pass attempts outside of that game, which is insane, but he also deserves credit for connecting with Jerry Jeudy, David Njoku, and Elijah Moore, each of whom is averaging at least 13 PPR points per game since Week 8 (Jeudy is at 21.7 thanks to last week’s outburst). The matchup, complete with pass rusher Alex Highsmith returning for the Steelers, does create some concern that Winston could miss his upside. He’s a borderline starter. I suspect the Steelers will try to stick with the run as much as they can. Cleveland’s run defense has been a little worse without Jeremiah Owusu-Koramorah for four games; their best outing was against the Steelers in Week 12, but the weather may have played into the defense’s hands. Najee Harris looked good last week, and the Steelers should have a shot to grind their way to victory with him.
OBVIOUS STARTS: George Pickens
STARTS: Jameis Winston (borderline starter), Najee Harris, Jerry Jeudy, David Njoku, Steelers DST
FLEX: Elijah Moore (PPR), Jaylen Warren (borderline No. 2 RB in PPR)
SITS: Russell Wilson (bye-week QB), Pat Freiermuth (bye-week TE), Jerome Ford (desperation PPR RB), Nick Chubb, Browns DST
Cade Otton’s past three weeks have been pretty rough for Fantasy managers, and it seems tied to the Bucs run game getting hot, not so much Mike Evans‘ return or any specific matchups he’s had. Bucky Irving has scored in three straight, averaged over 5.5 yards per rush in three straight, and has worked in tandem in the passing game, if not outright overtaken Rachaad White, in three straight. And most importantly, Irving’s success in the red zone has taken targets away from Otton (just one red-zone target in his past three games). So it’s true that Otton had at least seven targets in two of his past three, but his ADOT is pretty low in those games, and the big moves he’s made after the catch have all but vanished, too. Las Vegas has given up big games to Travis Kelce, Jonnu Smith, and Mike Gesicki without Tee Higgins over its past five games (two to Kelce), but those tight ends were targeted a ton and/or around the end zone. I’m worried Otton won’t be as involved.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Mike Evans, Brock Bowers
STARTS: Baker Mayfield, Bucky Irving, Jakobi Meyers, Cade Otton (borderline starter), Buccaneers DST (borderline starter)
FLEX: Rachaad White
SITS: Aidan O’Connell, Tre Tucker (bye-week WR), Sterling Shepard (desperation PPR WR), Ameer Abdullah, Sincere McCormick, Raiders DST
We can write it off as silly that Nick Westbrook-Ikhine has eight touchdowns in his past eight games (at least one in seven of the eight), but we should take seriously his rise in the Titans offense. For example, his route rate has been north of 82% in each of his past six games, meaning he’s a primary perimeter receiver in the offense. And Westbrook-Ikhine has at least five targets in four of his past five games, including a season-high eight last week in the Titans’ loss to the Commanders. He also has at least a 20% target share in each of his past three games. The point is his role is growing and growing, giving him a safer floor as a Fantasy receiver for when (not if) he starts failing to score. As for this week, the matchup is sensational — Jacksonville has allowed the third-most PPR points per game to perimeter receivers like Westbrook-Ikhine over the past five weeks. The Jaguars also figure to be without top cornerback Tyson Campbell, making the matchup even easier. There are just two issues: The matchup is just as good for Calvin Ridley, who’s overdue for a big week, and if the Jaguars can’t score points, then this will rapidly turn into a game Tony Pollard dominates, thus removing Westbrook-Ikhine’s big plays from the game script.
STARTS: Tony Pollard, Brian Thomas Jr., Calvin Ridley, Evan Engram (low-end starter), Titans DST (bye-week DST)
FLEX: Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Travis Etienne
SITS: Will Levis (bye-week QB), Mac Jones, Tank Bigsby, Parker Washington (bye-week PPR WR), Tyler Boyd, Chig Okonkwo, Tyjae Spears, Jaguars DST
The Cardinals’ pass rush has really revved up over their past four games, totaling 19 sacks and a healthy 12.1% sack rate despite barely blitzing. This was enough to pressure Sam Darnold plenty, but he overcame it and finished with a good stat line because of some savvy play on his part. Darnold was the first quarterback in six weeks to get more than 16 Fantasy points against Arizona, a list that includes Geno Smith, who was sacked five times and held to 14 Fantasy points by the Cardinals two weeks ago. With 4.3 yards per carry allowed in its past five games, the Cardinals run defense should get tested by the Seahawks, who seem desperate to finally get their run game going with Kenneth Walker III. That would keep Smith’s passing volume limited, especially since his own defense should be able to hound the Cardinals offense. I am expecting a low-scoring game.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Kenneth Walker III (No. 2 RB), Trey McBride
STARTS: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, DK Metcalf (low-end No. 2 WR), Marvin Harrison (low-end No. 2 WR), James Conner (low-end No. 2 RB), Cardinals DST, Seahawks DST
SITS: Kyler Murray, Geno Smith, Michael Wilson, Tyler Lockett, Zach Charbonnet, Trey Benson, Noah Fant
There is a correlation between the amount of pressure Matthew Stafford faces and the Fantasy results he delivers. Focusing just on his past six games (since his receiving corps got healthy), his two best games came when he faced the lowest amount of pressure against the Vikings and Patriots. Stafford faced pass rush pressure at a minimum of 30% of his dropbacks in the other four games and was on the way to delivering duds against the Eagles and Seahawks until some late-game heroics, and he did deliver duds against the Saints and Dolphins. Buffalo’s pass rush has been at its best with Von Miller on the field — half of their sacks on the season have come with him active — and their pass rush pressure rate is a good 35.6% with him. Additionally, only four quarterbacks this season have reached at least 20 Fantasy points against the Bills, including two who recently got all the way to … 21 points. This game might set up for Stafford to throw a lot, but that doesn’t guarantee great numbers.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Josh Allen, Kyren Williams, James Cook, Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp
STARTS: Khalil Shakir, Bills DST
SITS: Matthew Stafford (bye-week QB), Demarcus Robinson (bye-week WR), Amari Cooper, Dalton Kincaid, Colby Parkinson, Ty Johnson, Blake Corum, Rams DST
Caleb Williams fell back into bad habits last week at Detroit, holding the ball too long, trying too many throws downfield, and watching his completion rate nosedive in the process. Maybe by the second half, he started to click a little bit more as he beat up on a Lions defense that got ravaged by injuries up front, but he wasn’t as efficient as he was in Weeks 11 and 12. The 49ers defense shouldn’t be judged by either of their past two games — one in a blizzard in Buffalo, the other also in the cold with a backup QB putting them in bad positions, and both without edge rusher Nick Bosa. There’s a shot Bosa returns this week along with a handful of other starters, and with the Niners clinging to playoff hopes, this could be a tough matchup for Williams to excel in. Just three quarterbacks have gotten over 20 Fantasy points against the 49ers this season (one without Bosa), and only two others have had 18. And none of the four quarterbacks against the Niners with at least 32 pass attempts have had 18-plus. Williams’ upside as a runner keeps him in the mix among the top 12, but barely.
OBVIOUS STARTS: George Kittle
STARTS: Brock Purdy, Caleb Williams (borderline starter), D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen, Jauan Jennings, Isaac Guerendo, D’Andre Swift (low-end No. 2 RB), 49ers DST
FLEX: Deebo Samuel
SITS: Rome Odunze, Cole Kmet, Patrick Taylor, Israel Abanikanda, Bears DST
Before the season, Jim Harbaugh spent a ton of time talking about how important his offensive line needed to be. Last week, they were thoroughly embarrassed. Atlanta’s pass rush had 10 sacks going into Week 13 and left their matchup with the Chargers with five more. Both Chargers running backs averaged over five yards per rush, but both had more than 1.0 yards before contact per rush. Plus, they combined for only 10 carries in a low-scoring game they won, which feels like a sign of how much confidence the coaching staff has in Gus Edwards and Kimani Vidal. The matchup only gets harder for the Bolts this week as the Chiefs have one of the best run defenses in the league and a pass rush that’s ripe for a breakout after totaling five sacks in their past two against the Panthers and Raiders. I suspect a lot of work will be on Justin Herbert’s shoulders, which sounds good considering the Chiefs secondary gave up numbers to Aidan O’Connell last week, but he’s struggled to shine in his past two games in part because of his offensive line.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce
STARTS: Isiah Pacheco, Ladd McConkey, Chiefs DST, Chargers DST
FLEX: DeAndre Hopkins
SITS: Justin Herbert (borderline starter), Xavier Worthy, Quentin Johnston, Will Dissly (borderline starter), Gus Edwards, Kimani Vidal, Kareem Hunt
Rico Dowdle was the star of Thanksgiving for the Cowboys, notching career-highs in carries (22) and rush yards (112) while scoring his third-ever touchdown and his first of the year. The matchup against the Giants had a lot to do with that success, and this week’s matchup against the Bengals should be almost as good. Cincinnati’s run defense had gotten into a groove until last week when they gave up 4.5 yards per rush to the Steelers, who had positive yards on 20 of 22 runs and five-plus rush yards on 40.9% of their carries. The duo of D-tackle Sheldon Rankins and linebacker Logan Wilson may have been absences the Bengals just couldn’t handle. If one or both are out, Dowdle should be in position to handle a lot of touches for the second straight week as the Cowboys attempt to control the game clock with a big dose of the run.
Before his concussion in Week 11, Jake Ferguson had at least seven targets in 5 of 7 games, only coming up empty in blowout losses versus the Lions and Eagles. It seems unlikely for this week’s matchup against a beleaguered Bengals defense to be a blowout loss for Dallas, and in fact it should be one where the Cowboys hang in there and potentially win. Cincinnati has let up at least 13 half-PPR Fantasy points to seven tight ends over its past eight games, making them one of the most favorable matchups for the position. Sure enough, they’ve allowed the fourth-highest catch rate to TEs on the year at 77.4% and a second-most eight scores including one in four straight. Losing coverage linebacker Logan Wilson for the year won’t help the unit get any better. Ferguson is worth starting immediately.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Joe Burrow, Chase Brown, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, CeeDee Lamb (No. 2 WR)
STARTS: Rico Dowdle (low-end No. 2 RB), Jake Ferguson (top-10 TE)
FLEX: Brandin Cooks (low-end PPR flex)
SITS: Cooper Rush (desperation QB), Luke Schoonmaker, Mike Gesicki, Ezekiel Elliott, Bengals DST, Cowboys DST
