No. 10 Boise State and No. 15 Arizona State are the first two conference champions to effectively lock up a College Football Playoff berth. The Broncos beat No. 20 UNLV 21-7 Friday night for the second win over the Rebels this season. The Sun Devils, picked last in the Big 12 preseason media poll, defeated No. 16 Iowa State Saturday afternoon, 45-19, to win the conference as a first-year member.
But this has sparked an entirely new debate: which team deserves the first-round bye more?
Would the committee consider leapfrogging the Sun Devils ahead of the Broncos? It’s certainly a scenario for which Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark and now Arizona State coach Kenny Dillingham have lobbied. For better or worse, that’s a part of the current CFP format — and will continue to be, as long as positions are determined by a selection committee sitting in a hotel conference room.
Arizona State’s primary argument is that, as a Power Four team, it played a more difficult schedule and should probably be forgiven for its loss to Cincinnati because it was without starting quarterback Sam Leavitt. For the record, ASU’s strength of schedule ranked No. 42 in Sagarin (part of the old BCS formula) and No. 72 by ESPN. Boise State’s SOS is No. 89 and No. 82, respectively, by those same metrics.
| Team | Record | SOS (Sagarin) | Wins vs. currently ranked teams (CFP) | Best wins | Worst loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Arizona State |
11-2 |
42 |
2 |
BYU, Iowa State |
Cincinnati |
|
Boise State |
12-1 |
89 |
1 |
UNLV (twice) |
N/A |
So, yes. Technically, Arizona State did play a more difficult schedule, but is the difference between the schedules truly significant enough to warrant ignoring that second Arizona State loss?
That’s the decision the committee will have to make.
Boise State’s argument centers on two wins over a ranked opponent (though both were UNLV) and the single loss being a three-point differential at Oregon, the only undefeated team after the regular season who happens to be No. 1 in the CFP Rankings entering Sunday.
Arizona State’s schedule may have been more difficult overall, but it didn’t include an opponent near the quality of Oregon. This is why Boise State’s strength of record (a metric that rates how the average top 25-team would perform against the same schedule) is ranked No. 11, according to ESPN’s FPI. Arizona State’s is No. 16.
The argument boils down to whether you believe it’s better to play an overall more difficult schedule or to perform well against the schedule you play. It’s clear, based on how the rankings have worked all season, that the committee is more likely to reward the latter. Odds are, Boise State will still be ranked ahead of Arizona State come Sunday’s final rankings.
Who deserves a first-round bye in the CFP?
However, there’s one possible outcome that could see both the Broncos and Sun Devils get what they want. If No. 17 Clemson upsets No. 8 SMU in the ACC Championship Game, both teams could finish ranked ahead of Clemson and get a bye.
