For the first time all season, the AP Top 25 poll will feature a new No. 1 when the college basketball rankings update on Monday. Preseason No. 1 Kansas held that distinction for five consecutive weeks from the preseason to the first week of December, but two losses to two unranked teams in two outings this week leaves voters with no choice but to replace it at the top.
Tennessee, Auburn and Iowa State could all garner first-place votes as KU takes a backslide this week, but the Volunteers appear primed to make the move into the No. 1 spot — and that’s how we have it in Tomorrow’s Top 25 Today below. They were the highest-ranked team to not suffer a loss in the last week after moving up to No. 3. Auburn likely would have been in pole position to supplant KU, but a loss at Duke this week damaged its perfect record and could be just enough to give Tennessee the edge for voters.
Our best guess at how voters will sort things out when rankings refresh is below. Keep in mind there are a number of moving parts, and four of the top five teams taking at least one loss could provide a major shakeup.
Tomorrow’s Top 25 is a weekly safe space for us to guess how we think AP voters will react to the results of the week, making it of course different from Gary Parrish’s daily Top 25 And 1 rankings (how he ranks them) and different than my weekly Power Rankings (how teams are performing of late). This is all about taking into account the entire season’s body of work, factoring in the last week since the most recent AP Top 25 poll, and then trying to break into the brain of voters to guess how we think the upcoming poll Monday will look.
1. Tennessee (Last week — 3): The Volunteers are No. 2 in scoring margin but will be No. 1 in the AP Top 25 on Monday. Tennessee has eight wins on the season and by an average of 26.8 points, which included a 26-point home win this week vs. Syracuse in its only outing of the week.
2. Iowa State (Last week — 6): An 81-70 home win over a previously-undefeated Marquette team should win some voters over this week on Iowa State. The Cyclones’ only loss all season was to Auburn in Maui.
3. Auburn (Last week — 2): Auburn’s 84-78 road loss at Duke on Wednesday shouldn’t be enough to move voters strongly one way or another given the environment inside Cameron Indoor, how well Duke has looked and how close the game was.
4. Kentucky (Last week — 4): Kentucky lost 70-66 to Clemson on the road Tuesday then totally redeemed itself with a 90-89 overtime win Saturday. Moving down seems possible but that win might be enough to even things out.
5. Marquette (Last week — 5): If Iowa State moves up into the range I project above, then Marquette remaining steady in the poll seems possible, if not likely. Its only loss this week — and on the season — was to the Cyclones on Wednesday before a 14-point home win vs. Wisconsin.
6. Duke (Last week — 9): The biggest win of the week goes to Duke in its 84-78 takedown of Auburn on Wednesday. Blue Devils have struggled to close late in games but seem to be learning — and quick — with a young but talented roster.
7. Kansas (Last week — 1): KU’s defense collapsed vs. Creighton in allowing Pop Isaacs to go for 29 points. Then its offense collapsed vs. Missouri, where it recorded 22 turnovers — the most in a single-game for the Jayhawks since 2022. Out of the top five seems likely for KU but inside the top 10 feels a reasonable response.
8. Alabama (Last week — 10): The only outing of the week for Alabama was a 94-79 dismantling of North Carolina in Chapel Hill, doing to UNC’s defense what is illegal in all 50 states. Bama’s offense has the Tide at 7-2, and they should remain inside the top 10 this week.
9. Gonzaga (Last week — 7): Blowing an 18-point second half lead to Kentucky over the weekend may give Gonzaga a slight ding in the eyes of voters. With two losses on the season, undefeated and one-loss teams like Florida and Michigan should be getting consideration to leap the Zags.
10. Florida (Last week — 13): The Gators are one of only nine undefeated teams in college basketball after another perfect week in which it went 1-0 with a lopsided win over Virginia. No great wins on the resume, but nine solid wins — and no losses.
11. Purdue (Last week — 8): Purdue’s loss at Penn State on Thursday could keep the Boilers from hanging inside the top 10, though an 83-78 win over Maryland on Sunday could make things interesting.
12. Oregon (Last week — 12): Now 9-1 on the season with wins over Texas A&M, Alabama, San Diego State and USC and a gutting last-second 73-71 loss to UCLA on Sunday, the Ducks should remain inside the top 15. With other movement elsewhere I’ve got them staying put at No. 12.
13. Michigan (Last week — NR): First-year Michigan coach Dusty May has his Wolverines 2-0 already in Big Ten play with wins this week over Wisconsin and Iowa. They’re 8-1, and are long overdue for some love in the AP poll.
14. Houston (Last week — 17): It was a quiet week for Houston, which went 1-0 with a 28-point home win over Butler. Cougars are 5-3 on the season with two to top-10 teams and two in overtime.
15. Texas A&M (Last week — 22): Texas A&M scored a huge win on a neutral floor Sunday in Fort Worth over fellow Texas school Texas Tech. Aggies playing some good ball the last few weeks.
16. Ole Miss (Last week — 23): Wins over Louisville and Lindenwood this week should get the Rebels rising into the top 20. Their lone loss on the year was to Purdue on a neutral.
17. Michigan State (Last week — NR): Wins by 18 and 37 points over Minnesota and Nebraska should get voters attention on the Spartans as they round into form. They’ve made some statements of late with Jaxon Kohler emerging as a First Team All-Hustle candidate.
18. Wisconsin (Last week — 11): Two games, two losses this week for Wisconsin — to Michigan and to Marquette. That’s the Badgers’ first two losses on the season.
19. Oklahoma (Last week — 21): OU’s unblemished record remains intact after the Sooners defeated Georgia Tech and Alcorn State at home in relatively undramatic fashion.
20. Cincinnati (Last week — 14): Cincinnati not only took its first loss of the season this week, but lost to a Villanova team that has stumbled out of the gate this season. That’ll push them down but the Bearcats should remain in the top 25.
21. Maryland (Last week — NR): Maryland lost on the road at Purdue on Sunday but made a statement earlier in the week in defeating Ohio State 83-59. The body of work for the Terps is impressive and only getting better.
22. UConn (Last week — 25): The Maui Invitational suddenly feels like it was years ago for UConn, which has now won three straight highlighted by wins over No. 15 Baylor and Texas this week.
23. Memphis (Last week — 16): Memphis lost by 13 points Sunday to an Arkansas State team it was favored to beat by 15 points at home. There’s no way to gloss over that one. The Tigers are in danger of falling out of the rankings Monday.
24. San Diego State (Last week — 24): The Aztecs remain stable in the rankings after two wins over Fresno State and San Diego this week that don’t move the needle.
25. Illinois (Last week — 19): Illinois’ first true road game of the season Friday was a 70-66 overtime loss at Northwestern. That win over Arkansas on Thanksgiving should keep the Illini in the rankings.
Projected to drop out: No. 15 Baylor, No. 18 Pittsburgh, No. 20 North Carolina
