Six weeks into the offseason, the Houston Astros have been among the least active teams in baseball. They’ve yet to sign a major-league free agent and the only 40-man roster player they’ve acquired in a trade is extra outfielder Taylor Trammell. The Astros and GM Dana Brown have spend most of their time working to re-sign third baseman Alex Bregman. A big gap remains, however. Houston offered six years and $156 million, per MLB.com. Bregman is said to be seeking closer to $200 million.
Houston’s offseason shopping list extends beyond re-signing or replacing Bregman. They need a first baseman, ideally at least one more outfielder, and pitching depth. Cot’s Baseball Contracts estimates the club’s 2025 competitive balance tax payroll at $228 million, not too far short of the $241 million penalty threshold. Re-signing Bregman would push them well over the threshold. To do anything else, they’d either need to run the highest payroll in franchise history, or cut payroll elsewhere. The latter seems likely.
During the Winter Meetings, Astros GM Dana Brown was asked about the possibility of trading lefty Framber Valdez or outfielder Kyle Tucker, two players entering their final season before free agency. Moving one or both would clear significant dollars (both are projected for north of $16 million in arbitration), but also leave enormous holes on the roster. Brown did not immediately shoot down the idea of moving Valdez or Tucker, however. Like any good GM, he’s willing to consider whatever comes across his desk.
“We’re not trying to aggressively move anybody out the door, but if someone wants to talk, that’s part of being at the Winter Meetings,” Brown told reporters, including The Athletic, on Monday. “Sometimes guys will think outside the box and say, ‘Hey would you guys do this guy or that guy.’ If it doesn’t make sense, we wouldn’t do it. It would really have to make sense. We’re a good team and we’re not motivated to move any of these guys.”
Tucker, 28 in January, slashed .289/.408/.585 with 23 homers and 11 steals in only 78 games around a broken shin in 2024. He had more walks (56) than strikeouts (54) and, despite missing all that time with the injury, he finished with at least 4.7 WAR for the fourth straight season. Tucker is also a gifted outfield defender. He’s a bona fide star. He may not get as much recognition as he deserves, but make no mistake, all 30 teams see him as a star. Tucker is one of the best and most productive players in the sport.
On top of that, Tucker has expressed interest in signing an extension — “Like I’ve always said, we’re always open to have those conversations, whether it happens now or a little later or whatever it may be,” he told MLB.com last spring training — so he might not be a one-year rental. There’s potentially a chance to trade for Tucker and then lock him up long-term, which is what happened with Mookie Betts and Francisco Lindor when they were traded a year away from free agency.
Do I expect the Astros to trade Tucker? No, I do not, though you can sort of see how it could come together. The Astros may have to cut payroll somewhere to afford other moves, and other than trading Yordan Alvarez (not happening) or Josh Hader (full no-trade clause), they’re short on ways to do it. Also, Houston could trade Tucker for multiple pieces now rather than keep him and possibly lose him for nothing but a dinky compensation draft pick next offseason. Is a Tucker trade unlikely? Yes. Impossible? Nope.
If the Astros do indeed make Tucker available in a trade — I suspect Brown would have to be bowled over with an offer to even consider it — there would be a ton of interest. One year of control means only fellow contenders would show serious interest, but still, there a lot of teams who would want Tucker. That said, the Astros are not going to rebuild. A Tucker trade will presumably involve MLB talent heading to Houston, which complicates things. Trade partners may not want to subtract from their big league roster.
With all that in mind, let’s break down all the potential landing spots and the best possible fits for Tucker, a three-time All-Star. We’ll go through all 30 teams and rank them based on well Tucker fits their current roster and situation. Come with me, won’t you?
Not happening
30. Chicago White Sox
29. Miami Marlins
28. Colorado Rockies
27. (Sacramento) Athletics
These four teams are in various states of rebuilding, and trading multiple pieces for a one-year rental, even a player as good and as well-rounded as Tucker, doesn’t make a whole lot of sense. The A’s need to continue raising payroll to get out of the MLBPA’s crosshairs with regards to how they’re spending their revenue sharing money, but there are other ways to do that.
It doesn’t make sense right now
26. St. Louis Cardinals
25. Los Angeles Angels
24. Minnesota Twins
23. Boston Red Sox
22. Milwaukee Brewers
At another point in time, Tucker would make a ton of sense for these teams, but not now. The Cardinals are in a reset (not a rebuild, according to POBO John Mozeliak) and trading for one year Tucker doesn’t do much for them. They need to improve their pitching development more than anything. The Angels have added several pieces this winter but aren’t at the point of trading for a guy like Tucker to put them over the top. The Twins and Red Sox already have full outfields and are overloaded with left-handed hitters, Boston especially. Both teams need pitching more than anything.
The Brewers are interesting. Even with Christian Yelich expected to get more time at DH, they have more outfielders than roster spots (Jackson Chourio, Sal Frelick, Garrett Mitchell, Blake Perkins), though Frelick has a little infield experience and Perkins is more of a high-end fourth outfielder than a starter. Would they consider putting Frelick at third base and trading for Tucker? Or, you know, they could include someone like Mitchell in the Tucker trade, and open an outfield spot that way. I don’t expect it to happen, hence their place in these rankings, but squint your eyes and you can see how the Brewers would make it work.
What’s your excuse?
21. Pittsburgh Pirates
20. Washington Nationals
Paul Skenes and Jared Jones will not be healthy and throwing the ball this well forever. Such is the nature of power pitching. The Pirates should be operating with extreme urgency this offseason so they can capitalize on the Skenes/Jones window while it’s open. The Pirates badly need offense (more than Spencer Horwitz) and right field is wide open (sorry, Joshua Palacios). Want to argue that using high-level trade chips to get a rental like Tucker isn’t the best move and Pittsburgh should target someone with more years of control? Fine, but this is about Tucker, so he’s our focus. Point is, get to it, Pirates. Skenes/Jones won’t be this forever.
As for Washington, almost all their touted building blocks are in the big leagues: CJ Abrams, Dylan Crews, MacKenzie Gore, James Wood, etc. They also won the draft lottery and whoever they select with the No. 1 pick in July should be a quick mover. It’s time to support the youth with quality veterans and Tucker would bring championship experience to the group, plus he’s young enough that his prime aligns with what should be this core’s best years. And yes, we’re taking long-term here because the Nationals could trade for Tucker and then extend him. That would be the point, really. Bringing Tucker in for the long haul and pairing him with Crews, Wood, et al. We’ve seen the Nationals spend huge in the past. It’s not a question of can they do it, but are they willing to do it?
Bubble teams with a need
19. Tampa Bay Rays
18. Arizona Diamondbacks
17. Texas Rangers
16. Toronto Blue Jays
15. Cincinnati Reds
You needn’t try hard to see these five teams fighting for a postseason berth in 2025, and when you’re on the bubble, adding a player like Tucker increases your postseason odds considerably. He could be the difference between playing baseball or golf in October. The downside with this group is the Rays are unlikely to take on Tucker’s salary (he went to high school just down the road from their new 2025 home, George M. Steinbrenner Field, though), both the D-backs and Rangers have very full outfields, and the Blue Jays seem destined to finish third or fourth on every big name. Plus they have Bo Bichette’s and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.‘s upcoming free agencies to worry about. Adding Tucker’s would further complicate things.
The Reds are really interesting and I might have them a few spots too low. They need an outfielder, particularly a big bat who hits left-handed, and they’ve got some upper-level pitching and position player depth to peddle. With all due respect to the Brewers, the two-time defending NL Central champs, the Reds do not play in a powerhouse division. Add a guy like Tucker, get Matt McLain back from shoulder surgery, get a breakout performance from someone like Rhett Lowder or Nick Lodolo, and man, the Reds are right there. I don’t know if the money works for Cincinnati or if they’ll be able to find common ground on a trade package, but I do love the fit.
Contenders with a need
14. New York Mets
13. Chicago Cubs
12. Atlanta Braves
11. Baltimore Orioles
Perhaps I am being generous by listing the Cubs with three 2024 postseason teams. I don’t think you have to try very hard to see them making a run at a postseason berth in 2025 though. It’s a little convoluted, but trading Cody Bellinger or Seiya Suzuki, then bringing in Tucker to provide more offense than Bellinger and more defense than Suzuki at a lower salary could work. The Cubs have plenty of trade pieces. They have more MLB-ready and near-MLB-ready outfielders than roster spots. It’s just a question of whether they’re willing to use them to get Tucker, and can juggle everything else (Bellinger, Suzuki, etc.) to make the roster work.
The Mets just added Juan Soto and have five outfielders for three roster spots (Soto, Starling Marte, Brandon Nimmo, Jose Siri, Tyrone Taylor), but the DH spot exists, and come on, you don’t let Siri or Taylor stand in the way of getting Tucker. The Braves will need some help covering right field while Ronald Acuña Jr. completes his knee surgery rehab, then they could always shift Tucker over to left when Acuña returns (he has left field experience, though he hasn’t played the position since 2020). The Orioles still don’t have a clear lane to give Heston Kjerstad playing time, suggesting adding another outfielder is not the priority. For Tucker though, maybe they’ll do it. Point is, you can see why the Braves, Cubs, Mets and Orioles might pursue Tucker, but you can also understand why they might look to do something else rather than bring in another outfielder.
The best fits
10. San Diego Padres
You can never rule Padres GM A.J. Preller out on a big name. I’m not sure what kind of package he could put together that would entice the Astros, but this isn’t the first time I’ve said that about the Padres and a potential trade partner. Preller has a way of figuring out how to get things done. With Jurickson Profar a free agent, San Diego has an open outfield spot, plus they don’t have a set DH at the moment. On the field, Tucker is a pretty obvious fit for the Padres. Whether Preller can get it done is another matter.
The surprise run to the postseason, where they swept Tucker’s Astros in the Wild Card Series, should only be start for these Tigers. They have young talent all over the field, the unanimous AL Cy Young winner in Tarik Skubal, and plenty of money to spend based on their past payrolls. Similar to the Nationals, the Tigers have a path to trading for Tucker and extending him so he becomes a long-term building block and not just a one-year rental. The one negative is Detroit’s lineup is already very left-handed heavy. I think that’s a minor issue when you’re talking about a player as impactful as Tucker.
They’re not going to stop at Willy Adames, are they? The Giants could trade for Tucker and then extend him, and add him to a nice offensive foundation that includes Adames, Matt Chapman, Jung Hoo Lee Heliot Ramos, and top prospect Bryce Eldridge. Tucker’s defense would fit nicely in spacious Oracle Park, and his low strikeout rate would balance out some of the higher whiff guys in the lineup (Adames, Chapman). San Francisco strikes me as a team that should make an aggressive push to get Tucker, if he is truly available.
A tale as old as time: Seattle needs more offense. The outfield is full at the moment with Randy Arozarena and Julio Rodríguez joined by 2024 breakout player Victor Robles, but we’re talking about Kyle Tucker here. If you’re the Mariners, and you badly need another middle-of-the-order bat and badly want to return to the postseason, you figure out how to make all the pieces fit. I assume Seattle would pursue a hitter with long-term control — one of their starters for a Jarren Duran or Triston Casas-led package from the Red Sox makes so much sense, no? — but if that hitter with long-term control isn’t out there, Tucker is a pretty great Plan B.
Collectively, Kansas City’s outfielders hit .223/.281/.367 with 47 home runs in over 1,800 plate appearances in 2024, and that’s just not going to cut it. Jonathan India brings needed on-base skills to second base and Tucker would be an enormous outfield upgrade. His lefty bat would slot in perfectly as the No. 3 hitter between righties Bobby Witt Jr. and Salvador Perez as well. Trading for one year of Tucker might not be the wisest idea, but Seth Lugo can opt out of his contract after next season and Perez is a 34-year-old catcher with a ton of mileage on his legs. You don’t know how much longer he will be a productive hitter. If there were ever a year for the Royals to really go all-in on a one-year rental like Tucker, 2025 is probably it.
Cleveland has not had an outfielder hit 30 home runs since Grady Sizemore hit 33 in 2008. The last to do it before that was Juan Gonzalez (35 in 2001). Tucker hit 30 homers in 2021, 30 homers in 2022, 29 homers in 2023, and 23 homers in 78 games in 2024. There is more to life than home runs, I know, but wouldn’t it be nice to get some power from the outfield for once? The Guardians cleared significant cash in the Andrés Giménez trade and could clear more by trading Josh Naylor (a free agent after 2025 like Tucker) and his projected $13 million or so 2025 salary, and slotting Kyle Manzardo in at first base. José Ramírez is in his 30s now, Emmanuel Clase is still at the height of his powers, and Steven Kwan‘s about to start making real money through arbitration. This is a pretty good time to splurge on a one-year rental like Tucker.
The Phillies have a clear need for another outfielder, someone to push great glove/no bat guy Johan Rojas out of everyday duty, and Tucker would be a significant upgrade. The downside is Philadelphia would be adding another lefty bat to a lineup that already includes Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Brandon Marsh, and Bryson Stott, though I don’t that’s a dealbreaker. Tucker hits lefties as well as he hits righties, and Harper and Schwarber aren’t run-of-the-mill lefties. Alec Bohm has been on the trade block all winter. Is there a Bohm plus stuff for Tucker framework that makes sense should the Astros determine they’re not going to be able to re-sign Alex Bregman? Might as well call and ask if you’re the Phillies, right?
The team that has everything still needs another outfielder, even after signing Michael Conforto. Mookie Betts is moving back to shortstop and Tommy Edman is going back to center field (his best position), where he’s currently slated to be flanked by Conforto and either James Outman or Andy Pages. The Dodgers remain interested in Teoscar Hernández and re-signing him would be the easiest and most straightforward move, but Tucker is the better and more complete player (and also cheaper), so perhaps Los Angeles will pivot this way. If the Astros do make Tucker available, I suspect the Dodgers were be among the very first to call.
Tucker is not Juan Soto, though he is pretty much the next best thing. He’s similar as a middle-of-the-order lefty with contact skills and power, plus he adds a speed and defense element. The Yankees were unable to re-sign Soto long-term. Given the fact Tucker has said he’s open to an extension in the past, perhaps they would be able to lock him up before it reaches a free agent bidding war. The Astros and Yankees are frequent postseason rivals and maybe they would be hesitant to trade with each for that reason — Tucker hitting a key homer against the Astros in October would sting — but, on paper, the Yankees need Tucker more than almost any other team. And would you look at that? They’re reportedly “among the teams most seriously pursuing” him! The only team that needs him more is the …
1. Houston Astros
Yep, the best fit for Tucker is the team that already has him. Houston’s outfield is single-ply thin. Right now it’s Tucker and some combination of Mauricio Dubón, Chas McCormick, Jake Meyers, and Taylor Trammell, with Yordan Alvarez expected to see more time at DH moving forward. The Astros need to add outfielders, not to subtract their best outfielder (by a mile). There is no harm in listening to offers — GM Dana Brown wouldn’t be doing his job if he didn’t — but it is hard to see how the Astros could trade Tucker and come out with a better team in 2025.
