The hot stove surprises us every offseason and the Houston Astros trading Kyle Tucker certainly qualifies as a surprise. Houston sent Tucker to the Chicago Cubs on Friday for third baseman Isaac Paredes, depth arm Hayden Wesneski, and 2024 first-round pick Cam Smith. As recently as Monday, trading Tucker seemed impossible. Now he’s a Cub.
The Astros are the four-time defending AL West champions though they are no longer the same powerhouse they were from 2019-22. Their win total has slipped from 106 in 2022 to 90 in 2023 to 88 in 2024, and they were swept by the Tigers in this year’s Wild Card Series. Now they’ve traded their best all-around position player before he could become a free agent next offseason.
Trading Tucker should not be seen as the start of a rebuild, however. Paredes and Wesneski will help the team immediately, and the Astros still have Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Hunter Brown, Yainer Diaz, Josh Hader, and Framber Valdez to build around. Astros GM Dana Brown used the Tucker trade to address multiple roster needs, and also to clear some salary.
Where do the Astros go now? Here’s what Brown & Co. must accomplish between now and spring training to give Houston a chance at a fifth straight division title.
1. Re-sign or replace Bregman
Do not assume adding Paredes closes the door on Alex Bregman returning to the Astros. It makes it less likely, sure, but the Astros pursued Paredes at the trade deadline with the intention of putting him at first base. They could re-sign Bregman, put Paredes at first base, and there you go. There’s plenty of room for the two to coexist on the roster.
That said, Bregman and the Astros are said to be far apart in contract talks — MLB.com reported Houston offered six years and $156 million while Bregman seeks closer to $200 million — and, on Saturday, The Athletic reported the Astros have emerged as a serious suitor for St. Louis Cardinals third baseman Nolan Arenado. If nothing else, Brown is looking at alternatives to Bregman.
Paredes’ ability to play the infield corners means the Astros do not necessarily have to replace Bregman with a third baseman. They can bring in a first baseman, put Paredes at third, and go with that. Houston needed two corner infielders this winter. Paredes is one and he can play first and third, so the Astros have roster flexibility as they look for that second corner infielder.
2. Add an outfielder (maybe two)
Chas McCormick was a very productive and underrated player from 2022-23. In 2024, he hit .211/.271/.306 and was demoted to Triple-A for a spell. Following the Tucker trade, McCormick is Houston’s top outfielder and not by a little either. The current outfield is McCormick in right, Jake Meyers in center, and a Mauricio Dubón/Taylor Trammell platoon in left. That won’t cut it.
We can’t rule out the Astros pursuing Teoscar Hernández or Anthony Santander, the top unsigned free agent outfielders. It seems more likely any outfield help will come via smaller moves, however. Lower cost free agents like Randal Grichuk, Max Kepler, and Jesse Winker jump to mind. Point is, the Astros badly need outfield help. They needed it even before the Tucker trade.
3. Bring in another late-inning reliever
According to USA Today, the Astros have “extensively shopped” setup man Ryan Pressly, who is owed $14 million in 2025 and has a full no-trade clause. Pressly was quite good in 2024, though some signs of decline are beginning to show up as he enters his age 36 season, namely fewer strikeouts and fewer swings and misses in general. Thus far, no team has taken the bait.
The thing is, even if they keep Pressly, the Astros could use another late-inning reliever to lighten the load on him, Hader, and Bryan Abreu. Abreu (78) and Hader (71) both set new career highs in appearances in 2024. This is the bullpen at the moment:
- Closer: LHP Josh Hader
- Setup: RHP Bryan Abreu, RHP Ryan Pressly
- Middle: LHP Bryan King, RHP Kaleb Ort, RHP Tayler Scott, RHP Forrest Whitley
- Long: RHP Shawn Dubin
There’s room in there for another high-leverage reliever. Someone to push Ort and Whitley down the depth chart a peg. The game is so bullpen-centric these days and Houston’s rotation is not what it was a few years ago. They’re getting fewer innings out of the back of their rotation and thus putting more strain on the bullpen. The Astros could use another reliever, for sure.
4. Re-sign or replace Verlander
Future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander struggled so badly down the stretch this past season that he was left off Houston’s Wild Card Series roster. He turns 42 in February, so while he is an all-time great, it’s probably best for the Astros to make a clean break, and move on. The club could use someone to step into his rotation spot though. Here’s the rotation depth chart:
- LHP Framber Valdez
- RHP Hunter Brown
RHP Cristian Javier(will miss most of 2025 with Tommy John surgery)- RHP Ronel Blanco
- RHP Luis Garcia (coming back from Tommy John surgery)
RHP Lance McCullers Jr.(has not pitched since 2022 due to injury)- RHP Spencer Arrighetti
- RHP Hayden Wesneski
Valdez is excellent and Brown broke out in a big way this summer once he began using a sinker as his primary fastball. Blanco threw a no-hitter in April and was in the Rookie of the Year conversation much of the season. The rotation thins out quick after that though, particularly with Javier having surgery and McCullers being a non-factor the last two years.
Valdez (also a free agent after the 2025 season) and Brown are a very strong 1-2 punch. The Astros could use a little more back of rotation stability behind them. Someone they can reliably count on for innings and to take the ball every fifth day. It doesn’t have to be an impact starter, though I’m sure they would like to add one of those. An innings guy like, say, Kyle Gibson or a Charlie Morton reunion would work.
It is really hard to trade a player as good as Tucker and make the team better. Paredes will feast on the Crawford Boxes and Wesneski is a nice depth arm, and Smith is Houston’s new top prospect, but the Astros are a worse team today than they were before the trade, when they were a worse team than they were at the end of the season because Bregman is a free agent.
The AL West is a very winnable division, so even without Tucker, there’s no reason the Astros can’t make a run at a fifth straight division title. They need to re-sign or replace Bregman though, and add to their outfield and pitching staff. Contending in 2025 is certainly doable. Brown just has a lot of work ahead of him these next few months to make it happen.
