The Cubs on Friday landed star right fielder Kyle Tucker in a three-for-one deal with the Astros. It’s a big splash for Jed Hoyer, an executive who had come under fire in recent years for being too risk-averse.
Leaving the Cubs’ big-league roster would be third baseman Isaac Paredes and, maybe, right-handed pitcher Hayden Wesneski. I say “maybe” because the roster might not have had room for Wesneski heading into next year, anyway. Highly-touted prospect Cam Smith was also involved in the Cubs’ deal.
In looking at this only from the Cubs’ perspective, the reaction here is that it’s an excellent move, but more need to follow. Tucker finished fifth in AL MVP voting in 2023 and was having a career year last season before a freak injury struck.
Smith is a big prospect, but the Cubs have lots of those in a deep farm system. Many of those prospects were blocked from the MLB roster in the short term with the team as currently constructed. When there are excess prospects, they should be used as currency to upgrade the MLB roster and Smith has only played five games above the Class-A level (in Double-A last year).
Keep in mind this team won exactly 83 games in two straight seasons and hasn’t been to the playoffs in a full season since 2018, when they were bounced from the Wild Card. That means they haven’t been deep in the playoffs since 2017 and, frankly, that’s unacceptable after an extreme rebuild and then World Series title. What’s more, they play in a very winnable division and Hoyer is entering a lame duck year.
The time is now to finally, in Hoyer’s case, get aggressive. He did so with this move. I’ve been among the chorus calling him too risk-averse, but he went out and traded three players for a guy headed to his free-agency year. That’s a strong, win-now move.
I said time and again last season — to the point that I got tired of saying it — that the Cubs were a roster full of supporting characters in desperate need of a main character. Cody Bellinger was a top guy in the past, while players like Seiya Suzuki and Justin Steele have shown flashes of being main-character types. In the end, though, the leader in WAR for the Cubs in 2024 was Dansby Swanson at 4.0. Among position players, that ranked 36th in the majors. With roughly 10 teams every year not even trying to win, the Cubs trying to contend without a top-35 position player just isn’t gonna cut it.
Tucker, meanwhile, only played in 78 games due to fouling a ball off his shin. He still posted 4.7 WAR after three straight seasons of at least 5.4. From 2021-23, he averaged 30 homers and 104 RBI per year. Last season in less than half a year, he had 23 home runs. Ian Happ led the Cubs with 25 home runs and 86 RBI last season.
From 2021-24, Tucker hit .280/.362/.527 (an .888 OPS) with a 145 OPS+. The Cubs’ leader in OPS and OPS+ last season was Suzuki at .848 and 138, respectively. And while he was rumored to be included in trade talks with the Astros on this deal for a bit, he remains with the Cubs.
The assumption here is Cody Bellinger now gets traded and we’ve also heard plenty about Nico Hoerner being on the trading block. That still leaves the Cubs with Tucker, Suzuki, Happ, Swanson, Michael Busch and top prospect Matt Shaw on the position-player side. Let’s not gloss over Pete Crow-Armstrong, either. Only 22 last season, he struggled for a while but something clicked in late July. In his last 57 games, Crow-Armstrong — who has immense upside as a defender and baserunner — hit .289/.337/.469 with eight doubles, three triples, seven homers, 30 RBI, 35 runs and nine steals in what amounts to just over ⅓ of a season.
Even if Bellinger is traded, Happ, Crow-Armstrong, Tucker and Suzuki are an outstanding outfield with one player left over to DH (it should be Suzuki, who had a terrible defensive year last season, not to mention two straight years with an oblique injury).
There’s room for Hoyer to continue maneuvering if Bellinger and/or Hoerner are dealt. Shaw can play either second or third. Busch has experience at third base if the Cubs wanted to go after a first baseman (Pete Alonso and Christian Walker remain free agents, for example) and swing him over to the hot corner. Alex Bregman is also a free agent if the Cubs want to pursue a third baseman. If the Blue Jays make Vladimir Guerrero Jr. available, the Cubs should be all over that, though it seems unlikely they could pull off deals for Tucker and Guerrero — both free agents after 2025 — in the same offseason.
The point is the Cubs’ organization was in the position to reshape things with so much prospect depth and a roster full of decent or good-but-not-great players. They needed to use some of this depth for top-shelf talent.
The reason I mention the dangling of Bellinger and Hoerner in the trade market is because the Cubs’ pitching staff could also use upgrades while the front office is being aggressive.
The current rotation of Shota Imanaga, Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon, Matthew Boyd and Javier Assad looks like a potentially pretty good rotation. Imanaga and Steele are better suited as mid-rotation guys than aces, though. Corbin Burnes still sits as a free agent, though it appears the Cubs don’t care to join the bidding, even if they should. The Mariners are known to be making some of their pitchers available via trade while the Cubs have offensive players to deal. Maybe there’s a match there in taking on Luis Castillo‘s money or just grabbing someone like Bryan Woo or Bryce Miller?
The bullpen, too, has plenty of live arms, but seems like it could use an alpha-type closer to knock everyone down a role. They have been rumored to be in on Kirby Yates as a closer. Again, that’s a main character.
The Cubs just pulled off something like this by adding Kyle Tucker. He’s the offensive centerpiece now. Maybe they can find a way to add a rotation and bullpen centerpiece moving forward while shuffling MLB pieces around. Bellinger and maybe Hoerner are probably the ones on the move next, should the aggressive mindset remain.
The bottom line: Big-time free agents are available. Great players could be had via trade. The NL Central is open for the Cubs’ taking. Hoyer just made an aggressive move in order to push past mediocrity.
Do the math. The Cubs just made a big splash, but it shouldn’t stop there. This could and should be the first domino as they look to get back to postseason relevance.
