This is it. With 28 teams eliminated, the second annual NBA Cup has reached its title game: the Milwaukee Bucks vs. the Oklahoma City Thunder for the trophy in Las Vegas on Tuesday night. If you believe in the axiom that styles make fights, this is the championship game for you.
In one corner, we have the Bucks. They are one of the NBA’s oldest teams, and are desperately trying to stave off the decline of their key players long enough for one last run to glory. While their defense leaves plenty to be desired, the Bucks have a lethal offense led by Giannis Antetokounmpo, a top contender for MVP this season, and Damian Lillard, who has never won a championship of any variety in the NBA. Only the Cavaliers have shot better from 3-point range this season, and the Bucks will need to hit their jumpers to have a chance in this one.
Because in the other corner, we have the Thunder. Unlike Milwaukee, Oklahoma City boasts one of the NBA’s youngest rosters, and while the Bucks win their games on offense, the Thunder do so on defense. They rank No. 1 in the NBA on that end of the floor and have a 2.2 points per 100 possession advantage over any other defense in the league. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander may not have quite as much hardware as Antetokounmpo, but Tuesday could be the first step in that direction for one of the NBA’s very best young talents.
And so, with the NBA Cup on the line, let’s dive into Tuesday’s title fight. Here’s how you can tune into the action along with a handful of best bets.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Milwaukee Bucks
- Location: T-Mobile Arena; Las Vegas
- Time: Tuesday, Dec. 17; 8:30 p.m. ET
- TV channel: ABC | Live stream: fubo (Try for free)
- Beting line: Thunder -5; O/U 214
The Bucks have gotten quite a bit of credit for their resurgence after a 2-8 start, but has it been warranted? Likely not to the extent that they’d hope. The Bucks may be 14-11 overall, but they are only 4-8 against teams above .500. They are 10-3 against teams below .500, and those have been the bulk of their opponents during this hot stretch. The Bucks have only two wins against teams with top-four records in their conference so far this season. The first, which came against Houston, relied on a call that the NBA has since admitted was a mistake. The second, which came against the Magic in the NBA Cup quarterfinals, saw Orlando play without its two best players in Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero. There’s just not much evidence at this point that the Bucks, to whatever extent that they have righted the ship, are capable of beating great teams. The Thunder are emphatically a great team. They have the NBA’s best net rating at +12.1, which would be the second-best regular-season net rating in NBA history over a full season behind only the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls. They are a true heavyweight, and until the Bucks prove they can hang with a team like that, it would be irresponsible to pick them to do so. The Pick: Thunder -5
I’m leaning toward the over for two reasons. The first is that while Oklahoma City’s defense is dominant, it’s dominant in ways that are conducive to overall scoring. They generate a ton of turnovers, and the slower Bucks aren’t going to be equipped to hang with them in transition. The closest thing to a weakness that the Thunder have defensively is the number of 3s they allow. Opponents take 38 of them per game against Oklahoma City, which is closer to the largest figure in the league than the smallest. The Bucks have the NBA’s second-best 3-point percentage, so they’ll be able to stack points from deep. If you have any fear about championship game jitters, remember that the Lakers and Pacers produced 234 total points in their In-Season Tournament finale a year ago. The NBA Finals, this is not. The Pick: Over 214
The Thunder allow the fewest points in the paint in the NBA, but as we’ve covered, they do allow plenty of 3s. I’m expecting Antetokounmpo to lean into that, functioning primarily as a decoy by driving into the paint to draw help before kicking the ball back out to his teammates behind the arc. He has gone over this assist line of 5.5 in nine of Milwaukee’s last 14 games, and I think he’ll do so again in this game. The Pick: Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 5.5 Assists
