The time for screaming at each other about who deserves to be in the College Football Playoff and who doesn’t has come and gone. There’s no more need for hypotheticals, whether sensible or not, because it’s time to determine some winners on the field.
The first round of the first 12-team College Football Playoff begins on campus sites this weekend, as for the first time, home games will be part of the college football postseason. This will not only lead to an incredible atmosphere at each game but also present unique challenges for every team.
Instead of outdoor stadiums in warm-weather cities or domed stadiums shared equally by fans of both sides, we’ll be dealing with the elements this weekend and mostly partisan crowds. Current forecasts suggest freezing cold temperatures for three of our games with possible snow in the forecast as well.
It should lead to some incredible football. Let’s hope we can match it with some winning picks. Odds via SportsLine consensus.
(10) Indiana at (7) Notre Dame
Imagine if somebody told you years ago that the first playoff game in an expanded field would be between Notre Dame and Indiana. Seriously, I’ve watched the Hoosiers all season, and I still shake my head a bit at the fact they’ve come this far. I’m also shocked the Notre Dame team that lost at home to Northern Illinois is hosting a playoff game! And it’s a Winner-Takes-Indiana battle!
There’s been a lot of talk about Indiana’s schedule this season, and plenty of it’s warranted. What isn’t discussed as often is that it’s not as though Notre Dame went through a gauntlet itself. According to Sagarin ratings, Indiana played the 74th most difficult schedule while Notre Dame’s was 64th. The difference between them is miniscule. However, even if Indiana blasted most of the teams it played this year, I have more faith in the Fighting Irish entering the game, and not simply because they’re at home.
I just can’t shake how ineffective Indiana’s offense looked against the two best defenses it faced in Michigan and Ohio State. In 10 games against everyone else, Indiana scored 3.97 points per possession and had a success rate of 53.8%. Against Ohio State and Michigan, those numbers plummeted to 1.52 points per possession and 39.8%. Notre Dame’s defense is on par with both those teams, if not better. The Hoosiers were better along the lines of scrimmage against most teams, but when they weren’t, they didn’t look like the same team.
That’s not to say Indiana can’t have success here. Defensively, the Hoosiers match up well, but unless they force multiple turnovers, I don’t know that their offense will score enough. The Pick: Notre Dame -7 (-110)
(11) SMU at (6) Penn State
The weather could have an impact here; the current forecast has temperatures in the low-30s with snow possible. That’s a bit concerning, but the more I look at the matchup, the more I feel like we’re going to see a shootout.
Penn State’s offense has been one of the most explosive offenses in the country (16.1% explosive play rate, 5th nationally) and can put points on the board in a hurry. Tight end Tyler Warren is a matchup nightmare that I’m not sure SMU has an answer for, and he should have a big game. While I worry a little about backup QB Beau Pribula leaving the team because of his impact in certain situations, his absence will be felt more down the road should Penn State advance. With or without him, Penn State should have plenty of success on the ground.
Don’t get me wrong, SMU’s defensive front was better than expected, but it wasn’t nearly as dominant against Clemson in the ACC Championship Game, and this Penn State offensive line may be the best it has seen all year.
On the other side, Penn State has a phenomenal defense, but if there’s a weak spot, it’s that it is prone to giving up big plays (it ranks 50th in explosive play rate allowed). I can see SMU hitting big plays to get itself in scoring position, and the wild card is Mustangs QB Kevin Jennings. Looking at Penn State’s schedule, I don’t know if there’s a QB they’ve seen this season with Jennings’ skill set. Yes, the Nittany Lions have seen mobile QBs, but nobody with the overall athleticism as Jennings. His ability to evade pressure and pick up first downs with his legs to keep drives alive will be critical in this game. In the end, I have Penn State winning, but I’m more confident in the winner needing to score at least 30 points. The Pick: Over 53.5 (-114)
(12) Clemson at (5) Texas
Full disclosure: This is the first-round game in which I have the least confidence. I can see this game going in any number of directions, from a Texas blowout victory to Clemson winning outright. Both of these teams have been inconsistent all season, and it’s tough to know who will show up. In the end, I’m leaning in Clemson’s direction, at least when it comes to the spread.
I have concerns about Quinn Ewers. He still looks to be dealing with the oblique injury he suffered earlier this season, and it’s impacting his play, particularly in the red zone. He can’t put the kind of velocity on the ball that’s needed in that part of the field, and it’s impacting Texas’ ability to finish drives. In the first three games of the season, before Ewers was hurt, Texas averaged 5.44 points per red zone drive. In the eight games since his return, that number has dropped to 3.56.
Part of that is due to Texas’ inability to run the ball this season, so it’s possible a bit more Arch Manning at that end of the field could help, but Texas’ run game being ineffective overall is another area that concerns me. The weakness of Clemson’s defense this season has been stopping the run, where it ranks 76th in EPA per rush compared to 23rd in EPA per dropback.
Can Texas exploit that enough?
As for the Tigers offense, the concern is they’re capable of a no-show. We saw it in losses to Georgia, Louisville and South Carolina. The Texas defense has been phenomenal this year, and I expect it’ll make life miserable for Clemson. But, in the end, I just don’t have enough faith in the Longhorns offense to trust their ability to cover a double-digit spread. The Pick: Clemson +11.5 (-110)
(9) Tennessee at (8) Ohio State
The most interesting matchup of the first round, and not just because of what’ll happen on the field. Call me crazy, but I don’t think it’s a great sign when Ohio State’s athletic director is publicly asking Ohio State fans not to sell their tickets to Tennessee fans on the secondary market. We know fan morale in Columbus, Ohio, is low after the Michigan loss, so it remains to be seen what kind of atmosphere we get here.
As for the matchup, I smell a rock fight coming our way. Both teams have excellent defenses. Ohio State is first nationally in points allowed per possession (0.92) and Tennessee is right behind them in third (1.01). The key for both is their pass rush, as Ohio State ranks eighth in pressure rate while Tennessee is 11th. That’s huge in this matchup because Ohio State is very banged up on the offensive line, while Tennessee’s offensive line has had difficulty pass-blocking all season long.
I expect both Will Howard and Nico Iamaleava to be dealing with traffic in the pocket, and both teams will likely look to lean on their run games to slow those pass rushes down.
I think Ohio State wins more often than not because it’s been much better finishing drives on offense than Tennessee has, but I don’t think either team will look great on offense or be capable of pulling away from the other. The Pick: Under 47 (-110)
SportsLine’s proven computer model is calling for 10 outright upsets during college football’s bowl and playoff season. Visit SportsLine now to see them all, plus get spread picks for every game from the model that simulates every matchup 10,000 times.
