The first round of the College Football Playoff was a dud. It doesn’t matter if you think they put the wrong teams in or if you blame the format of the tournament and the way it’s seeded, there’s no arguing the first four games all stunk.
When the most dramatic moment of the four games was Clemson making it a one-score game for 55 seconds in the fourth quarter of its loss to Texas, you know it was a rough watch.
While it was a disappointment, let’s look on the bright side. The odds are the quarterfinals can’t be worse. According to the point spreads, we’re in for a feast-or-famine kind of round. We have two games with spreads within three points and two with spreads in the double digits. And, thankfully, while we can’t guarantee excitement across the board, we can entertain ourselves with bets on each game.
(3) Boise State vs. (6) Penn State
Boise State as an underdog in the Fiesta Bowl? What could go wrong? Seriously, there is some irony here in the fact Boise has been a giant killer in the Fiesta Bowl and is 3-0 all-time in the game, but it’s going up against a Penn State team that’s 7-0 in the game. No program has won this game more often than Penn State, and I’m pretty confident the Nittany Lions will improve to 8-0 after this one.
Ashton Jeanty is one of the best players in the country, and he is not a byproduct of Boise State’s schedule. However, in this game, he’ll be facing a Penn State defense that’s been one of the best defenses in the country against the run and one of the few capable of slowing him down and forcing Boise State to move the ball in other ways. If the Nittany Lions stick eight men in the box and dare Maddux Madsen and Broncos receivers to beat them, are you confident they can? I’m not. On the other side of the ball, I don’t have much confidence in Boise State’s defense getting as many stops as it will need to win this game. The Pick: Penn State -10.5 (-115)
(4) Arizona State vs. (5) Texas
A lot of intelligent people are pointing at this game as the one that’s most likely to be a blowout, and considering the spread is two touchdowns, it’s a logical stand to take. However, I do believe that given the extra time to prepare, Arizona State can cook some things up on offense to find some success against an outstanding Texas defense. I can see the Sun Devils putting up nearly 30 points in this game as easily as I can see them getting shutout.
But no matter how things play out on that side of the ball, I have little faith in the Sun Devils defense to get stops. They do not get pressure on opposing quarterbacks, and considering how good Texas’ offensive line is, I think we’ll see Quinn Ewers sitting in the pocket as long as he needs to wait for his receivers to get open against a secondary that hasn’t been outstanding.
And while Texas’ offense has struggled in the red zone over the latter half of the season, Arizona State’s red zone defense has been bad. The Devils rank No. 101 nationally in points allowed per red zone possession. The Longhorns were able to run all over Clemson last week and should be able to throw it all over Arizona State this week. The Pick: Texas Team Total Over 32.5 (-114)
(1) Oregon vs. (8) Ohio State
I don’t think this game will look all that different from the first one! We saw 63 points scored in that affair, and I won’t be shocked if we see even more this time around. Oregon has been the most consistent team in the country this year and is very much worthy of its record and No. 1 ranking, but its defense has struggled at times. The Ducks have played three games against teams remaining in the field (Boise State, Ohio State, Penn State) and allowed at least 31 points in all three of those games. I expect Ohio State will do so again in the rematch, particularly now that it’s at a neutral site instead of Autzen Stadium.
At the same time, Oregon’s offensive line was terrific in the first meeting and can slow down an Ohio State pass rush that struggles against better offensive lines, so I don’t think the Ducks offense will look much different, either. In fact, QB Dillon Gabriel has only gotten more comfortable as the season has gone on, and this unit improved down the stretch. This game is shaping up to be every bit the classic the regular season meeting was, and it may be higher scoring. The Pick: Over 55 (-110)
(2) Georgia vs. (7) Notre Dame
Contrary to popular belief, I am not an idiot. I know that, even without Carson Beck, this Georgia team is capable of beating Notre Dame. I know that when this defense is at its best, it can overwhelm any offense. However, I also understand Notre Dame is quite good. While I’ll never understand how this Irish team lost at home to Northern Illinois, that loss feels like ages ago, and this is a team capable of making a run.
And I’m surprised the Irish are underdogs. Again, I know Georgia can be great, but these odds are putting a lot more faith in Gunner Stockton than I’m willing to do without proof of concept. It feels like there’s too much faith being put in the fact Georgia beat Texas in the SEC Championship Game and some convenient memory loss about that Stockton turnover that should’ve been returned for a touchdown if Texas’ Jahdae Barron knew how to follow his blockers. I expect a low-scoring game where any mistakes will prove costly, and I trust Notre Dame’s Riley Leonard to avoid making them more than I do Stockton. The Pick: Notre Dame +2 (-110)
SportsLine’s proven computer model is calling for 10 outright upsets during college football’s bowl and playoff season. Visit SportsLine now to see them all, plus get spread picks for every game from the model that simulates every matchup 10,000 times.
