I almost did it. I almost had the perfect slate.
Not the good way, of course. I almost went winless, which seems unlikely until you consider the type of season I’ve had here picking games. Only the Los Angeles Rams saved me with my ATS picks by blowing out the Vikings. It meant I was 1-5 for the week. Terrible, but better than an O-fer. I was also 3-3 straight up.
That brings my season records to 181-97-0 straight up and a disappointing 129-143-6 ATS.
So much for getting to .500 ATS for the year. With just seven games to go, that ship has sailed.
But let’s see if I can close out the season with a little hot streak. I do like three dogs this week, which bucks the season-long NFL trend of favorites covering, but that’s the way I see it for the divisional round of the playoffs.
It can’t be any worse than last week. Right?
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5)
Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN, fubo try for free)
The Chiefs have been resting for three weeks, which they needed. But will the rest cause rust? I don’t think that’s a problem for this veteran group.
The Texans impressed in beating the Chargers last week at home as the offense showed life, but the defense came up really big. They need the same type of defensive effort here. These teams met in Kansas City in December and the Chiefs won 27-19. In the win against the Chargers last week, the Texans pressured Justin Herbert into four turnovers. But getting that kind of pressure is always the challenge against Patrick Mahomes. Can they pressure him enough to slow him and force takeaways?
The Chiefs have had offensive line issues this season, but they’ve been better the past month. That will lead to a more comfortable Mahomes. With Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy on the field together, look for the Chiefs to roll on offense. Their defense will get the best of the Texans offensive line. That will lead to turnovers by C.J. Stroud that will propel the Chiefs to another AFC Championship Game.
Pick: Chiefs 30, Texans 21
Washington Commanders (+9.5) at Detroit Lions
Saturday, 8 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo try for free)
This should be high scoring. The Lions are dynamic on offense and have defensive issues. The Commanders, with rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, can score as well.
Daniels will be even more electrifying inside on the fast track. But the Lions will get theirs as well. The Commanders might not be ready to win a game like this, especially in this environment, but they will hang around. Daniels is that good.
Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn will send a lot of looks at Daniels, but he will hold up and make some big plays with his legs against the blitz. But in the end, it will be the Lions who advance with a strong showing from their offense, led by Jared Goff. He will hit some big shots down the field against the Commanders secondary to win it.
Pick: Lions 34, Commanders 31
Los Angeles Rams (+6) at Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, 3 p.m. ET (NBC, fubo try for free)
The Rams are coming off a physical domination of the Vikings where they impressed on both sides of the ball. The Eagles beat the Packers and did so behind a dominant defensive showing.
The Eagles’ plan here is simple, and it’s the one they used to beat the Rams earlier this year: run the heck out of Saquon Barkley. He racked up 255 yards and two scores as the Eagles beat the Rams, 35-20, in late November. But this Rams team is better than that one. The defense has grown up. It won’t be as easy this time around. The Eagles will have to throw it better than Jalen Hurts did last week.
As for the Rams offense, Matthew Stafford is one of the best postseason quarterbacks in history. That matters against a Vic Fangio scheme. In the end, the Eagles will win it. But it will be a lot closer than the first meeting.
Pick: Eagles 23, Rams 20
Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills (+1)
Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
This is the game of the week for many, matching the two top MVP candidates in Baltimore quarterback Lamar Jackson and Bills quarterback Josh Allen. Both have been outstanding this season, carrying their teams to this spot.
The Ravens beat the Bills in Week 4 of this season in a dominating 35-10 performance. That game was a Sunday night home game for the Ravens, which they used to their advantage. This is a road game in a tough place to play, which will make it much more challenging.
I expect both defenses will be better than they were the last time they met. The Ravens changed things up by moving Kyle Hamilton to safety full-time and he’s helped turn the defense around. The Bills were without starting linebackers Matt Milano and Terrel Bernard and nickel corner Taron Johnson in that game, which showed as Derrick Henry ran wild that night.
This game will be decided by whatever defense plays best and gets the turnovers. I think it will be the Bills. I think Allen will continue to take care of the football and hit big plays in the passing game, which can be the way to beat the Ravens. The Bills will win a game for the ages on a late field goal by Tyler Bass.
Pick: Bills 31, Ravens 30
