Major League Baseball will open a new international amateur free-agent signing cycle on Wednesday, clearing the way for Japanese ace Roki Sasaki to pick his destination. Sasaki, designated as an amateur based on his age and service time, has reportedly narrowed down the finalists to three: the Los Angeles Dodgers, San Diego Padres, and Toronto Blue Jays. The Dodgers and Padres have long been viewed as top contenders for Sasaki’s services; the Blue Jays, on the other hand, may strike some as a surprise inclusion.
It’s reasonable to write that each of the three clubs has a lot riding on Sasaki’s decision — such is life whenever there’s the possibility of adding a potential impact talent at a submarket price. Even so, it’s arguable that the Blue Jays have the most hanging in the balance. The Dodgers will remain the World Series champions, as well as one of the favorites entering the new season; likewise, the Padres should stay competitive in the National League, even if they have to pivot. The Blue Jays, though, are already a team at the crossroads following one of the sport’s most disappointing 14 months, a stretch dating back to when they finished second in the Shohei Ohtani sweepstakes.
Toronto has since come up short time and again on top free agents. So far this winter, the Blue Jays have been linked to the likes of Juan Soto, Max Fried, Corbin Burnes, Clay Holmes, and Gleyber Torres. Each of those players signed elsewhere. It’s true that every club pursues free agents that it doesn’t sign; that’s the reality of the game. After a certain point, though, when a team exhibits a pattern of finishing second or third on priority free agents, it’s worth wondering why that club can’t seem to close a deal. Was their interest overstated? Were the players unwilling to relocate to the area? Is the front office simply behaving too rationally for a process that demands irrationality? Maybe it’s a little of all the above, maybe it’s none.
What’s certain is that Toronto’s biggest offseason additions have been glove-first infielder Andrés Giménez (owed nearly nine figures through the 2029 season) and relievers Jeff Hoffman and Yimi García. Those are fine to good players, but that’s not the haul you’d expect from a 74-win club on the cusp of losing franchise mainstays, in Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, to free agency in 10 months. Rather, it seems like in-between maneuvering that could be confused for indecisiveness.
In an ideal world, the Blue Jays would commit to a path.
Beginning a rebuild now, while Guerrero and Bichette’s trade value is boosted by the possibility of netting draft-pick compensation (as opposed to moving one or both at the trade deadline), would seem like the obvious approach. The Blue Jays don’t have a particularly impressive farm system, in part because they haven’t consistently hit on their first-round picks. Since drafting Marcus Stroman in 2012, they’ve made 15 first- and comp-round selections and have netted just one player with more than five career Wins Above Replacement (Alek Manoah). Trading a homegrown star is always painful, but Toronto could benefit over the long haul from maximizing the return.
The other option entails focusing on their short-term competitiveness, no matter the long-term consequences, by upgrading the roster around Guerrero and Bichette. Mind you, if the Blue Jays were going to take that kind of aggressive stance to the offseason, they probably would’ve already done it by ensuring they landed some of their previous targets. While Sasaki’s youth makes him the rare free agent who is a sensible target no matter which way the Blue Jays end up going, a failure to woo him may leave the Blue Jays without another opportunity this offseason to add an impact talent to their roster. (“May” because there are still a few quality free agents remaining, like Alex Bregman and Jack Flaherty, and it’s possible that the trade market could offer a few splashes between now and Opening Day.)
With so few cards left to play, it’s tougher to see how this route is the optimal one for the Blue Jays. Yes, the expanded postseason means that it’s easier than ever to sneak in. But this team still has to hang in a division featuring the reigning American League champions (Yankees), two clubs with impressive young cores (Orioles, Red Sox), and a Rays squad that tends to overperform.
Of course, landing Sasaki would boost the Blue Jays’ chances. It doesn’t guarantee anything though. He’s had his share of durability issues, and it’s worth remembering that he’ll be a 23-year-old adjusting to a new culture as well as a new league — it’s understandable if he doesn’t have a Paul Skenes-like introductory year. The real hope is that his presence would empower the front office to add further reinforcements, meeting the moment head-on and enhancing Toronto’s chances of making a serious run. Again, though, enough daylight has burned that placing the weight of the offseason, and perhaps even the first half of the upcoming season, on the shoulders of a single signing seems like a little much.
Unfortunately, that’s the position the Blue Jays find themselves in, and that’s why they might have the most riding on Sasaki’s decision.
