We’ve reached championship weekend of the 2025 NFL playoffs and we’ll see a reprisal of one of the NFL’s most heated rivalries on Sunday in the 2025 AFC Championship Game. The Kansas City Chiefs will host the Buffalo Bills with a trip to Super Bowl LIX on the line and NFL fans will be treated to the latest installment of Patrick Mahomes vs. Josh Allen. Allen holds a 4-1 edge during regular-season matchups, including a 30-21 victory on Nov. 17, but Mahomes is 3-0 against the Bills in the NFL playoffs. The latest Bills vs. Chiefs forecast is calling for partly cloudy skies and temperatures around 30.
Kickoff from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Mo., is set for 6:30 p.m. ET and you can catch all the action on CBS and Paramount+. Kansas City is a 1.5-point favorite in the latest Chiefs vs. Bills odds from the SportsLine Consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is up to 48.5. Before making any Chiefs vs. Bills picks, NFL bets or NFL playoff predictions, make sure you check out what SportsLine NFL expert Larry Hartstein has to say, considering his mastery of picks involving the Chiefs.
A former lead writer for Covers and The Linemakers, Hartstein combines a vast network of Vegas sources with an analytical approach he honed working for Pro Football Focus. He tied for 52nd place (out of 1,598 entries) in the 2022 Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest, going 53-34-3 ATS. Hartstein’s weekly Vegas contest selections form the basis of his NFL best bets column, which is 79-48-2 (62.2%, +25.95 units) since its inception in 2022. He’s also an amazing 30-16 (+1094) on his last 46 NFL picks on the Chiefs. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.
In addition to Hartstein’s picks for this game, you can get AI props, Vegas expert picks, DFS Optimizer lineups, and everything else you need to crush your AFC Championship Game football bets. Go to SportsLine now to see it all.
Now, Hartstein has zeroed in on Chiefs vs. Bills and just locked in his AFC Championship Game picks. You can head to SportsLine to see his picks. Here are the NFL odds and NFL betting lines for Chiefs vs. Bills:
- Chiefs vs. Bills spread: Kansas City -1.5
- Chiefs vs. Bills over/under: 48.5 points
- Chiefs vs. Bills money line: Buffalo +104, Kansas City -125
- BUF: Bills are 10-4 against the spread in their last 14 games
- KC: Chiefs are on a 12-game home winning streak
- Chiefs vs. Bills picks: See picks at SportsLine
- Chiefs vs. Bills streaming: Paramount+ (Try for free)
Top Chiefs vs. Bills predictions
For Bills vs. Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game 2025, Hartstein is leaning over on the point total. Kansas City’s offense hasn’t been as typically dominant throughout the season, but quarterback Patrick Mahomes and tight end Travis Kelce continue to make plays when they’re needed most.
The Bills ranked second in the NFL in scoring this season thanks to NFL MVP frontrunner Josh Allen, and the team executes at a high level in high-leverage situations. Buffalo ranked seventh in third-down conversion rate (44.1%), second in fourth-down conversion rate (72.7%) and second in red-zone touchdown percentage (71.6%).
Bills quarterback Josh Allen and running back James Cook combined to rush for 28 touchdowns this season and the Buffalo running game often looked unstoppable in goal-to-go situations. These teams also combined for 51 points when they met in Week 11 and have combined for at least 51 in their three previous postseason matchups over the last four years. See which side to pick here.
How to make Bills vs. Chiefs picks
Hartstein has analyzed Chiefs vs. Bills from every possible angle and while have told you he’s leaning over on the point total, he has also discovered a critical X-factor that has him jumping all over one side of the spread. Head to SportsLine to see what it is, and find out which team to back, now.
Who wins Bills vs. Chiefs on Sunday, and which critical x-factor makes one side of the spread hit hard? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Bills vs. Chiefs spread you need to jump on, all from the expert who is 30-16 on picks involving the Chiefs, and find out, and don’t forget to unlock AI props, Vegas expert picks, DFS Optimizer lineups, and all the other tools to crush your picks at SportsLine.
