No. 1 seed Aryna Sabalenka and No. 19 seed Madison Keys will face off in the 2025 Australian Open women’s final on Saturday, with the world’s top-ranked player trying to accomplish something that hasn’t been done in the 21st century. Sabalenka is looking to become the first woman to win three straight Australian Open titles since Martina Hingis, who won four straight from 1996-99. It would also be her sixth career Grand Slam title. Meanwhile, Keys, from Illinois, is appearing in her second career Grand Slam final in 46 tournaments and is seeking to become the first American since Sofia Kenin in 2020 to win the Australian Open. Sabalenka is coming off a 6-4, 6-2 win over No. 11 Paula Badosa in the semifinals on Thursday. Keys defeated No. 2 Iga Swiatek, 5-7, 6-1, 7-6 (10-8), in her semifinal.
The Australian Open 2025 will be the sixth meeting between Keys and Sabalenka, with the latter owning a 4-1 advantage. The Madison Keys vs. Aryna Sabalenka match will begin at 3:30 a.m. ET on Saturday at Rod Laver Arena in Melbourne, Australia. Sabalenka is the -345 favorite (risk $345 to win $100) in the latest Keys vs. Sabalenka odds, while Keys is the +270 underdog (risk $100 to win $270). The over/under for total games is 21.5, with Sabalenka favored by 4.5 games. Before you make any Sabalenka vs. Keys picks or 2025 Australian Open predictions, you need to see what tennis expert Jose Onorato has to say.
Onorato grew up playing competitive tennis in Caracas, Venezuela. After coming to the U.S., he trained with famed coach Nick Bollettieri at IMG Academy in Florida and faced players like Robert Farah, who ended up being one of the world’s top-ranked doubles players.
Onorato, who holds dual degrees in finance and economics from the University of Miami, does extensive research before placing any tennis bets. He studies current form, players’ tendencies on a particular surface, weather conditions and many other relevant factors. That systematic approach helped Onorato go 168-106-9 – up 107.12 units – since 2022. In the 2024 US Open, he included Jannik Sinner (+320) in his best bets. Anyone who has followed him at sportsbooks and on betting apps could be way up.
Now, Onorato has scrutinized the latest Australian Open 2025 odds and released his coveted betting picks and best bets for the Keys vs. Sabalenka women’s final match. He’s only sharing his picks and expert analysis at SportsLine.
Why Sabalenka can cover
Sabalenka has dropped just one set in reaching the final match on her quest toward capturing a third straight Australian Open title. She won all seven of her matches in straight sets last year, culminating with a 6-3, 6-2 win over Qinwen Zheng, who was ranked No. 12 in the world, in the final. Keys has been the story of the Australian Open, but that’s largely because her victories haven’t come easily and fatigue could catch up to her against the No. 1 player in the world on Saturday. Keys has gone to a third set in four of her six matches, including a tiebreak against No. 2 Iga Swiatek in the semifinals. Sabalenka will have significantly fresher legs.
The 26-year-old Sabalenka has the height and weight advantage over Keys to create a powerful serve and forehand. She went 56-14 in singles matches in 2024 after going 55-14 the year before. She won three of her final five tournaments last year, including the U.S. Open. Sabalenka is 4-1 in her career against Keys, with three of those wins coming in straight sets, and with a chance of a three-peat one victory away, she’ll be hard to slow down in the final. See who to back at SportsLine.
Why Keys can cover
Keys has already knocked off three top-10 ranked players en route to reaching the Australian Open final, capped off by defeating No. 2 Iga Swiatek, 5-7, 6-1, 7-6 (10-8), in the semifinals. The 29-year-old remained composed after dropping the first set and answered with a dominant second set, so even if she falls behind early to Sabalenka, she has proven the ability to rally. Keys also dropped the first set to No. 28 Elina Svitolina in the quarterfinals before winning the final sets 6-3, 6-4 to advance.
Keys also has a powerful serve and forehand that can challenge Sabalenka, despite not being not quite as stout as Sabalenka. The American shouldn’t be intimated by Sabalenka or her No. 1 ranking as Keys does have a victory over a World No. 1 when she defeated Swiatek for the first time in 2022. Keys is 13-1 on hard surfaces this year and given how she’s pulled off a string of upsets to get to this point, she’s shown the ability to compete with anyone in the world. The 29-year-old could have one more magical match left, or at least a strong enough performance to keep up with Sabalenka and cover the spread as Keys is one win away from her first Grand Slam title. See who to back at SportsLine.
How to make Sabalenka vs. Keys picks
In addition to his full analysis, Onorato has released his best bets for this Australian Open final showdown. Be sure to see Onorato’s picks and analysis before locking in your 2025 Australian Open picks for Keys vs. Sabalenka.
Who wins Sabalenka vs. Keys in the women’s final of the 2025 Australian Open, and what pick could lead to a huge return? Visit SportsLine now to see Jose Onorato’s best bets for Keys vs. Sabalenka, all from the tennis expert who knows the game from a player’s perspective, and find out.
