The Blue Devils could siphon off first-place votes from the Tigers after their hot streak continued this weekend
• 8 min read
Voters have consistently shown deference to the No. 1 team in the AP Top 25 poll with a clear, yet unwritten, modus operandi by which to handle their ballots related to the top-ranked team in the sport: by not bumping the respective No. 1 team from the top spot unless it loses.
That was clear earlier this season with Kansas holding at No. 1 the first five weeks of the season despite evidence that Auburn was the better team. It was also clear when Tennessee held at No. 1 for five weeks despite evidence that Auburn was the better team. On Monday, I suspect it will again be clear when Auburn holds at No. 1 for a fourth consecutive week despite evidence that Duke — which, I might remind you, is the only team to beat Auburn — has looked like the better team of late.
Voting tendencies suggest Auburn’s spot at No. 1 — especially after winning its 13th straight game this weekend with a 10-point road win over Ole Miss — is not in serious jeopardy. However, Auburn’s standing as the unanimous No. 1 might be.
While the Tigers have won 13 straight, No. 2 Duke won its 15th straight on Saturday, demolishing rival North Carolina in a wire-to-wire beatdown. The result moved the Blue Devils to 19-2 on the season, and efficiency ratings give them the No. 3 defense and No. 5 offense — the only team in the sport with top-five units on both ends of the floor.
College basketball scores, winners and losers: Michigan State, Houston lose first conference games
Cameron Salerno
Will Auburn’s unanimous No. 1 standing continue for a third consecutive week? That appears to be the biggest potential drama in Monday’s AP poll with Duke surging, given that I project all the top 10 teams from last week to also be top 10 teams this week (albeit, in many cases, in a slightly different order). It’s very much in jeopardy if people watched the Blue Devils dismantle their rival with ease on a national stage over the weekend. Duke now leads all of college basketball in scoring margin, owns a head-to-head win vs. the No. 1 team and would be a projected 0.8 point favorite vs. the Tigers if they played on a neutral floor today — per EvanMiya.com’s brilliant hypothetical matchup preview tool.
Strictly from a résumé-based evaluation, Auburn is the deserving No. 1. It has more than double the amount of Quad 1 wins as Duke, and with 12 already, it’s unlikely any team comes close to that many by season’s end. But Duke has wind at its sails with strong advanced numbers and the best head-to-head win in the sport — even if it came at home — that make casting a first-place vote for the Blue Devils a reasonable place to land. I wouldn’t do it, but there’s a strong case to be made.
Here’s how I project the Top 25 to look Monday when the poll updates with Auburn once again holding firm at the top. As always this is not a personal ballot, rather a projection of how I think it will look when AP votes are tabulated.
Projected to drop out: Ole Miss, Vanderbilt
