Ohio State is feeling a little better about its NCAA Tournament prospects this morning following a 73-70 come from behind win over Maryland. The Buckeyes have three of their next four games at home, so it is a chance to put a little cushion between themselves and the bottom of the bracket.
San Francisco got a big win at home over West Coast Conference leader St. Mary’s on Thursday. The Dons still have a home-and-home with Gonzaga and have little margin for error in their chase for an at-large bid.
The Gaels’ tournament resume took a bit of a hit, but a road loss to USF is still a Quad 1 game.
It’s a busy Saturday for the bubble. There are four double-bubble games and Indiana hosts Michigan and new coach Dusty May, the guy pretty much every Indiana fan was hoping would be on their sideline for this one.
Check out Palm’s latest bracket, full field of 68 and Bubble Watch at the Bracketology hub
All times ET
Saturday’s ‘double bubble’ games
Texas at Vanderbilt
1 p.m. (CBS)
This is the first of the “double-bubble” games on tap this Saturday. Both teams are coming mid-week losses
The Longhorns lost at home to Arkansas on 78-70 on Wednesday to drop to 15-8 on the season, but 7-8 vs. the top three quadrants. It was also their worst loss of the season, although it is Quad 2. This is a big game because home tilts with Alabama and Kentucky are next.
Vandy’s 86-75 loss at Florida is not especially damaging, but its weak non-conference schedule makes performing well in the league more important. That is a tough ask in the SEC this season. The Commodores have done their best work at home and this is a good opportunity to continue that.
UCF at Baylor
2 p.m. (ESPN+)
UCF has lost five of its last six and is in danger of falling out of contention entirely if the Knights cannot turn things around. Oddly though, their NET ranking has improved during that skid. This is the first of three out of four on the road.
Baylor followed up their big comeback win over Kansas with a loss at Texas Tech. The Bears are now 8-8 vs the top three quadrants so they need a strong finish to the season. They have a home and home with Houston and get Arizona in Waco, but should be favored in the rest of their regular season games.
Pittsburgh at North Carolina
4 p.m. (ESPNU)
It was not that long ago that Pitt got a big win over UNC that looked like it could separate the two in the battle for a spot in the NCAA Tournament. The Panthers have tanked since then, losing at Wake Forest and at home to Virginia. After this is a road trip to SMU. Pitt needs to find a way to keep from losing four in a row.
The Tar Heels’ primary problem is that they cannot beat good teams. They are just 13-10 overall and 1-9 vs Quad 1 opposition. Pitt’s woes means that this is not a Quad 1 game for Carolina any more, but when you can’t beat Quad 1 teams, you better beat everyone else.
BYU at Cincinnati
6 p.m. (ESPN2)
Cincinnati is in desperation mode as the Bearcats are just 6-9 against the top three quadrants. That isn’t going to get them much attention. They need every win they can get, so it is vital to take advantage of home games.
BYU is the second-to-last team in the bracket this morning, so this game is very important to the Cougars as well. They have just two Quad 1 wins and would feel a lot more comfortable about their position if they could string a few more together. This is the first of six Quad 1 games left on their schedule.
Other bubble teams in action Saturday
Indiana
vs. Michigan, 1 p.m. (CBS)
The Hoosiers have a dismal Quad 1 record of 2-8, but this is the first of four straight opportunities to improve on that. Three of those games are at home. Talent has not been the problem at Indiana, so there is still a chance for them to make a move.
Iowa
vs. Wisconsin, 1 p.m. (NBC)
Iowa lost at home to Purdue on Tuesday and gets another tough one here. The Hawkeyes lost leading scorer Owen Freeman for the season with a finger injury last week and that makes putting together a good enough tournament resume even harder. They need to take advantage of these home chances.
New Mexico
at Air Force, 4 p.m.
This one is easy. New Mexico cannot afford a loss to No. 306 Air Force. The Lobos already have a Quad 3 loss and a Quad 4 loss. That is their limit.
Wake Forest
at Cal, 5 p.m. (ACCN)
Wake Forest has a similar problem to North Carolina, which is an inability to beat better opposition. The Demon Deacons are just 1-6 against Quad 1 teams. That is not necessarily fatal, but it also means that games like this one are more important. Just like the Tar Heels, if you struggle against Quad 1 teams, you need to beat all of the others.
Georgia
vs. Mississippi State, 6 p.m. (SECN)
There are thirteen SEC teams in the updated bracket, but that number seems unsustainable. As the teams continue to beat each other up over the last month of the season, one or two figure to fall off. For Georgia to make sure it stays on the list, taking advantage of home games is vital. The Bulldogs’ next three home games are against likely tournament teams. That is a great chance to resume build.
Arkansas
vs. Alabama, 8 p.m. (ESPN)
Arkansas has gotten hot at a good time. The Razorbacks have won three of their last four and have another chance to put a gold star on their tournament profile. They are still below .500 against the top three quadrants, so they need to stay hot to climb above water against that group.
Gonzaga
at Pacific, 8 p.m. (ESPN+)
It’s the same for Gonzaga as it is for New Mexico. Some games are must-win. This one is must-not-lose. A Quad 4 loss would be a real stain (and strain) on its resume.
San Francisco
at Loyola Marymount, 8 p.m. (ESPN+)
The Dons play their next three games on the road, so they need to stay focused. They have no margin for error and need to be especially careful not to be so high after the win vs St. Mary’s that they cough this one up.
St. Mary’s
at Oregon State, 10 p.m. (ESPN2)
The Gaels’ loss to San Francisco hurts, but it is not as bad as most other league losses could be. They are still in the driver’s season in the conference race, but want to make sure they can still get an at-large bid if they need one. The Beavers are good enough to be dangerous. They already beat Gonzaga in Corvallis.
Teams near the cut line
NCAA Tournament locks
Locks based on resume: 1 | Automatic bids secured: 0
| Conference | Locks | Team |
|---|---|---|
|
SEC |
1 |
Note – all references to NCAA Tournament selection records and trends based on NET rankings excludes the 2021 tournament. Due to shortened schedules and a relatively small number of non-conference games, those rankings are not reliable enough to be considered.
