College baseball’s regular season gets underway today, which means it’s finally time to think about the Major League Baseball amateur draft.
The Washington Nationals won’t be placed on the clock in an official manner until Sunday, July 13, when MLB kicks off the All-Star Game festivities in Atlanta. Nevertheless, I’ve spent the start of the year compiling my preseason ranking of the top 30 prospects in the class. As always, these are formed through a combination of conversations with scouting and analytical personnel; firsthand observation; and historical analysis. There’s some personal bias baked in as well.
Before getting to the rankings, I’ll note that this draft is viewed as having an obvious top tier that consists of four players: FSU lefty Jamie Arnold, Texas A&M outfielder Jace LaViolette, Oklahoma prep infielder Ethan Holliday, and UC Santa Barbara righty Tyler Bremner. There are other talented players who could make the leap and join that tier, but for now those four seem to be the cream of the crop.
The rest of the class is messy, with one scout expressing the opinion that, after a certain point early on, you could start drawing names from the hat and come up with an agreeable top 50. I didn’t leave it to chance for this exercise, but the smoothness of the class is something to keep in mind if you don’t see your favorite player represented.
With all the fine print out of the way, let’s get to the rankings. (And remember, a lot can change in five months, so treat this list for what it is: a snapshot in time.)
1. Jamie Arnold, LHP, Florida State
The quick hook: Lefty with good stuff and command
If you haven’t watched Arnold, then the best way to visualize his delivery is to stitch together parts from other great southpaws. He combines Clayton Kershaw’s leg kick, complete with hands puppeteering the knee ever higher, with Chris Sale’s longer arm stroke and lower release slot. Forget the anxiety of influence; Arnold has the potential to become someone others model their games after in due time. His arsenal contains three high-quality offerings, including a pair of distinct fastballs: a four-seamer that elicits whiffs and a sinker that induces ground balls, both at elite rates. He also possesses a plus or better slider that he’s shown the capacity for backfooting against right-handed batters and a changeup (though it makes fewer public appearances than Thomas Pynchon). Arnold has a better strike-throwing track record than Hagen Smith, the No. 5 pick and the top left-hander in last year’s draft, and one veteran talent evaluator estimated he’s ahead of where Paul Skenes was at this point in his platform year. That doesn’t mean Arnold will reach Skenes’ heights (remember that Skenes discovered an elite pitch, a sinker, shortly after turning pro), but it makes him the current most compelling candidate to go No. 1.
2. Jace LaViolette, OF, Texas A&M
The quick hook: Power, discipline, and risk
LaViolette is the most fearsome hitter in the class, having homered 50 times and reached base in 43.3% of his attempts over his first two collegiate seasons. That he did so while receiving ample run in center field makes him sound like a left-handed Aaron Judge, dunnit? Hold that thought. Predictably, LaViolette pairs excellent swing decisions with 70-grade strength, the kind that allows him to hammer opposite-field home runs despite his operation featuring minimal hand movement. The blemish here is that LaViolette is prone to swinging and missing on pitches within the zone, triggering alarms about his bat-to-ball skills. Again, that sounds like Judge … except Judge never struck out more than 22% of the time as a collegiate, let alone the nearly 29% mark LaViolette posted in SEC play. Even if you view the SEC as a High-A equivalent, there’s a real chance strikeout creep leaves him on the wrong side of 30% by the time he reaches the majors. (Strikeouts are socially acceptable more now than ever before, yet only four qualified MLB hitters last season cleared 30%, testifying to how difficult it is to remain productive with that kind of K rate.) There’s no denying LaViolette can walk and bop with the best of them; if he can connect more frequently this spring, he could find himself as the first player off the board come July.
3. Ethan Holliday, SS/3B, Stillwater HS (OK)
The quick hook: Good lineage and left-handed power, but some questions persist
Baseball is the Holliday family business. Ethan’s father Matt was a seven-time All-Star; his brother Jackson is a future All-Star; and his uncle Josh has been Oklahoma State’s head coach since 2013. It’s tempting to compare relatives but, in this case, it’s more instructive to contrast them, specifically the scions. Whereas past Jackson possessed bat-to-ball skills and up-the-middle twitchiness, present Ethan trades in size and strength. He’s likely to wind up at third base, and perhaps in the cleanup spot if he fulfills his promise. Therein lies the rub: Ethan remains too prone to whiffing within the zone, as well as too inclined to chase outside of it for anyone’s comfort; his power production over the last two years, meanwhile, has been closer to “good” than “exceptional,” indicating he may not slug his way through it. Jackson made a big leap during his platform season, catapulting from my preseason No. 41 to the No. 1 overall selection in a matter of months. Ethan won’t need to cover as much ground to become the first set of brothers in MLB history to each be selected No. 1 overall, but he’ll need to exhibit some growth to make that dream a reality.
4. Tyler Bremner, RHP, UC Santa Barbara
The quick hook: Elite changeup leads the way for the top righty in the class
The Gauchos have produced one top-10 pick in school history: righty Dillon Tate back in 2015, when he went No. 4 overall to the Rangers. Bremner, equipped with an elite changeup that ranks among the best individual offerings in the class, has a chance to join Tate high in the Custerdome. He excels at mixing pitches and luring batters outside of the strike zone, generating well-above-average chase rates with both his cambio and his slider. Evaluators do question how well Bremner’s game will port to the pros, with those concerns stemming from the marriage between his quality of competition and a just OK in-zone whiff rate; if he’s just so-so at winning over the plate against mid-major opponents, they reason, how will he manage when he’s up against the best of the best? It’s a fair query, and an example of the kind of projection-based thinking teams have to grapple with. For now, it’s hard to deny him a spot in the top four.
5. Eli Willits, SS, Fort Cobb-Broxton HS (OK)
The quick hook: Athletic, switch-hitting shortstop could make The Leap
Ethan Holliday isn’t the only touted Oklahoman in this class with bloodlines working in his favor. Eli’s father Reggie appeared in parts of six MLB seasons with the Angels and now coaches for the Sooners. Among Reggie’s charges? Eli’s older brother Jaxon, who homered 10 times last season as a freshman. As for Eli, he’s the most promising member of a prep shortstop Cerberus, each vying to become part of the class’s top tier. Willits projects to become a plus or better hitter, with those forecasts hinging on his strong bat-to-ball and on-base skills derricking a power tool that could fall somewhere between a 40 and fringe-average grade. He earns plus or better defensive grades, too, and while he’ll likely end up at shortstop at the next level, he’s demonstrated an acumen for several positions, boosting his long-term optionality. Oh, and he won’t celebrate his 18th birthday until December, making him all the more appealing to model-based clubs. This is an aggressive rank, but all signs point to Willits justifying it by July.
6. Kayson Cunningham, SS, Johnson HS (TX)
The quick hook: Up-the-middle player with offensive promise
Whereas Willits will have youth working in his favor come draft night, Cunningham’s relative seniority (he’ll turn 19 in late June) may cost him ground if the three prep shortstops remain neck and neck heading down the stretch. Make no mistake, though. He’s still an enticing prospect with top-five potential. In the recent past, teams have been OK taking older prep shortstops if they believe in their skill sets: the Diamondbacks still have reason to think Jordan Lawlar can validate their faith, and the Royals surely don’t regret plucking Bobby Witt Jr. Cunningham won’t reach Witt’s heights, but his mature left-handed operation allows him to control the barrel and the zone alike, resulting in some plus hit tool projections. Scouts were more split on his future at shortstop, though they all agreed he ought to remain at an up-the-middle position. It seems unlikely, then, that Cunningham will find himself honoring his commitment to Texas.
7. Billy Carlson, SS/RHP, Corona HS (CA)
The quick hook: Quality defensive shortstop with offensive promise
Carlson is a legitimate two-way talent, but I expect his future employer will have him focus on hitting once he turns professional. Simply put, he’s further along as a position player, making it tough to justify waiting on his moundwork to catch up — it doesn’t help that he’ll turn 19 shortly after the draft. Carlson combines smooth actions with a well-above-average arm (no shock there), making him a plus defender at the six. At the plate, he’s shown a feel for hitting with a simple, line-drive swing from the right side. There’s a chance he boasts five average or better tools at maturation, with a few of those settling in as plus or better. Given Carlson’s defensive aptitude, that should be enough for him to go early and forgo his commitment to Tennessee.
8. Luke Stevenson, C, North Carolina
The quick hook: The top backstop in the class
Stevenson had an impressive freshman season, ranking fifth on the Tar Heels in OPS while serving as UNC’s primary backstop. All four of the players who outhit him, including Vance Honeycutt (the No. 22 pick in the draft), are now playing in the pros. Stevenson will soon join them thanks to a promising two-way profile. He provides legitimate left-handed thump at the plate, and he nearly walked as often as he struck out during conference play, easing some concerns about his hit tool. Defensively, Stevenson is more certain than his top counterpart (Auburn’s Ike Irish) to remain behind the plate. A strong showing this spring could cement him in the top 10.
9. Kruz Schoolcraft, LHP/1B, Sunset HS (OR)
The quick hook: Two-way talent and the best prep pitcher in the class
Schoolcraft is reminiscent of Giants prospect Bryce Eldridge when he was entering his draft year, at least in the sense that both were big lefties who played both ways. The difference is that, whereas Eldridge gave up pitching upon turning professional, I think Schoolcraft will instead retire his lumber. He’s too compelling as a pitcher to waste developmental time on his bat. Schoolcraft is already capable of touching into the upper-90s with his fastball; he’s shown aptitude with secondary pitches; and he posts quality vertical approach angles by getting down the mound and generating a flat plane despite his 6-foot-8 frame. There’s risk with every pitching prospect, especially those coming from the high school ranks. Schoolcraft counterbalances that, even if only a little, with his left-handedness and the possibility that he can fall back on his bat if needed. In my eyes, that makes him the top prep arm in the class.
10. Devin Taylor, OF, Indiana
The quick hook: Hitters gonna hit
Taylor has been an offensive force at Indiana, hitting .338/.441/.655 with 36 home runs and nearly as many walks as strikeouts over his first two seasons with the Hoosiers. He’s shown a feel for contact, power, and the zone alike, giving him a great offensive foundation on which to build. He even batted .296/.397/.510 in last summer’s Cape Cod League, demonstrating he’s capable of swinging the lumber as well as he does the aluminum. Why isn’t he higher? There are two main criticisms lobbed against Taylor’s game: the first is that his offensive excellence has come against so-so Big 10 competition, a reality that makes his strikeout rate spiking to 25% on the Cape a bit more worrisome; the other is that he’s probably a left fielder in the majors, putting more pressure on his bat transferring. Taylor’s boosters think he’ll hit his way into or close to the top 10. Given his track record and the weak crop of college bats, it’s certainly seems possible.
11. Ike Irish, C/OF, Auburn
The quick hook: Promising lefty bat with defensive questions
Irish is what you might call “hitterish.” He has the strength and barrel control to project as an above-average bat, with scouts gushing about his adjustability and willingness to use all fields. Both his strikeout and walk rates moved in the right direction during his sophomore season, and he even hit .311/.387/.575 whenever he was tasked with an SEC opponent. So, he’s a quality prospect at the plate — what about behind it? That’s to be determined. Irish’s arm strength is plus, but his accuracy wavers. The Tigers have deployed him at first base and in right field at times, where scouts have expressed confidence he could be an asset on the grass. Irish’s bat is such that he ought to go within the top 30 picks, even if a team isn’t yet sure where to play him.
12. Aiva Arquette, SS/3B, Oregon State
The quick hook: Physical left-side infielder with the chance to move up
These things can change in a hurry, but this doesn’t look like a good class for collegiate bats. That perception doubles as an opportunity for players like Arquette, a Washington transfer who could slide into the top 10 with a strong season. He has several factors working in his favor, beginning with a 6-foot-5 frame that hints at his plus power upside. He’s also expected to stick on the left side of the infield, with the scouts I talked to forecasting him as a third baseman. Arquette sliced into his strikeout rate last year, reducing it from 30.4% to 17.5%. He still struck out more than twice as often as he walked, however, a rate that serves as a bright red flag for a potential early collegiate pick. Arquette will need to take another step forward in his new surroundings. If he can, he’ll enter the summer with helium.
13. Brendan Summerhill, CF, Arizona
The quick hook: Center fielder with a hit tool
Summerhill’s appeal is easy to understand. He’s athletic enough to play center field and he’s demonstrated strong contact and on-base chops in every setting. He produced the second-highest OPS on the Wildcats roster last season, then followed that up over the summer by hitting .286/.358/.441 in the Cape Cod League. Scouts would like to see Summerhill tease more oomph from his 6-foot-3 frame; to wit, he’s homered just 10 times in 80 collegiate games to date, all the while posting average exit velocities. If he can make gains in that facet, he’ll solidify himself as a mid-first-round prospect.
14. Cam Cannarella, CF, Clemson
The quick hook: Speedy center fielder coming off a shoulder injury
Cannarella tore the labrum in his right shoulder last February, but he put off surgery until the summertime. In the interim, he rounded out a .337/.417/.561 seasonal slash line that never hinted at distress. Clearly he possesses some mental fortitude — and that isn’t all. Cannarella gives consistently good at-bats, owed to his feel for contact and the zone alike; he’s a fast runner, capable of making reaction video-worthy grabs and swiping bases at a high volume (Clemson gave him the red light on the basepaths to limit his exposure after injury, leaving him with just two attempts in 2024). For all that Cannarella has, there is something he lacks: power. One veteran scout declared Cannarella had less raw strength than Brewers outfielder Sal Frelick … the same Sal Frelick who ranked last in 2024 among qualifying hitters in average exit velocity. Cannarella has enough working in his favor to go in the first round all the same, but this ranking reflects that some teams won’t be willing to use a first-round pick on a player so bereft of power.
15. Cameron Appenzeller, LHP, Glenwood HS (IL)
The quick hook: Athletic, projectable lefty
Appenzeller is a tall, lean southpaw with the potential to get much better as a professional. He’s already experienced velocity gains over the past year, allowing his fastball to operate in the 90s with a chance to add on more oomph as he packs on muscle. Appenzeller has shown a feel for a pair of secondary offerings, a sweeping slider and a changeup, and he’s athletic enough to project starting-caliber command. He’s committed to Tennessee, but a healthy spring should result in him forgoing college entirely.
16. Seth Hernandez, RHP, Corona HS (CA)
The quick hook: Do you feel lucky?
The draft is, ultimately, an exercise in probabilistic analysis. It’s poker. You’re going to lose, sometimes in clusters, but you’ll win in the end if you develop and adhere to a sound process. That means knowing which profiles/hands to run with and which to run from. Nothing against Hernandez but, empirically speaking, the hard-throwing prep right-hander is the latter. Everyone knows it. Someone is still going to take the plunge with Hernandez this summer, provided he stays healthy and on schedule to becoming a mid-rotation starter. He’s shown promise with his control (despite a long arm action that features elbow creep) and his secondary pitches, and he clearly has strength and athleticism working in his favor. All of that to say: Hernandez will probably go higher than this rank indicates.
17. Tre Phelps, OF/1B/3B, Georgia
The quick hook: Undeniable, if unconventional offensive profile
Phelps’ game isn’t for everyone, but I think it will appeal to someone given the weak crop of collegiate bats. He’s a draft-eligible sophomore coming off a freshman campaign that saw him bat .343/.403/.686 with nearly as many home runs (six) as strikeouts (seven) during SEC play. He struck out or walked in less than 16% of his plate appearances, a statistic indicative of his aggressive approach. The appeal here is that Phelps clearly possesses some good bat-to-ball and, more importantly, barrel-to-ball skills. Beyond that? He lacks a true defensive home, having pinballed between corner spots last season. There’s been chatter about Phelps seeing time at the keystone this spring, but it seems more likely than not that “hitter” will remain his best position.
18. Xavier Neyens, 3B, Mount Vernon HS (WA)
The quick hook: Big power, but much to prove
Neyens is a physical left-handed hitter who possesses a clear separating tool, in his potentially plus-plus raw power. He established himself as a prospect of interest two summers ago, but he’s since had some so-so showings in showcase events. (Those tend to hold more weight with evaluators since it’s a rare opportunity to see the top high school players compete against one another.) Scouts have developed concerns about the amount of swing-and-miss in his game, causing him to slip on some preference lists. A good spring could help Neyens move back up, as well as further away from ever attending Oregon State.
19. Gavin Fien, SS/3B, Great Oak HS (CA)
The quick hook: Left-side infielder with thump
There are two infielders named Gavin in this class who could penetrate the first round: the California prepster Fien, and Tennessee’s Kilen. Here’s a little saying that’ll keep them straight in your head: if ceiling’s on your mind, your Gavin be Fien; if floor’s your feelin’, your Gavin be Kilen. Indeed, Fien is an angular right-handed batter with above-average strength and some feel for hitting. The scouts I spoke with believe he’ll outgrow shortstop and move to third, but a club who views him as this class’s answer to Aidan Miller could pop him as early as the middle of the first round.
20. Kyson Witherspoon, RHP, Oklahoma
The quick hook: Fastball-slider pairing lead the way for promising righty
Witherspoon had a solid first season with the Sooners, fanning a quarter of the batters he faced and tallying a 3.71 ERA over 80 innings after transferring from a Florida juco. He stayed busy over the summer, impressing with Team USA and in two starts on the Cape, putting himself into position to make a real push at the first round this spring. Witherspoon has two above-average offerings, in his fastball and slider, and the athleticism to throw more strikes despite a truncated arm stroke. If he can make good on his promise, he could become the third Sooners right-hander to go in the first round since 2020, joining Cade Cavalli and Cade Horton.
21. Kade Anderson, LHP, LSU
The quick hook: Lefty with stuff, but can he throw enough strikes?
The Tigers have produced at least a second-round pick in each of the last six drafts. That streak ought to live on. LSU’s roster is again loaded, creating the possibility that a den of Tigers gets plucked within the first few rounds. I’m expecting progress from Anderson, a draft-eligible sophomore. He struck out more than 33% of the batters he faced last season, albeit while also walking more than 11%. Anderson’s delivery features a short arm stroke that at times forces him to play catch up. If he can sync up his operation more frequently, his combination of a low-to-mid-90s fastball and downer breaking ball could make him an enticing first- or sandwich-round prospect.
22. Max Belyeu, OF, Texas
The quick hook: Tough summer has arrow pointing down
Belyeu was the most productive hitter on a Longhorns team that featured a top-50 selection (Rockies outfielder prospect Jared Thomas), batting .329/.423/.667 with 18 home runs across 59 games. He then scuffled over the summer with Team USA and in the Cape Cod League, with the latter stint culminating in a .658 OPS and a 33% strikeout rate. Ruh roh. In theory, Belyeu has all the makings of an above-average hitter at the next level; in practice, he’ll need to regain whatever shine he lost during summer ball if he wants to maintain a spot in the top 30 come July.
23. Ethan Conrad, OF/1B, Wake Forest
The quick hook: Everyone wants to be (Seaver) King
Few players in the country had a more impressive individual year than Conrad did. He went from posting a 1.171 regular season OPS at Marist to flourishing in both the Perfect Game Collegiate League and the Cape Cod League (where he hit .385/.433/.486 across 30 games). Conrad has since transferred to Wake Forest, hoping to follow the same arc that delivered Seaver King from Wingate to the 10th pick in the draft. He’s probably not going to soar to those particular heights, but there’s room for upward mobility here if he continues to display a good feel for contact with above-average strength. Another point in Conrad’s favor: he’s expected to spend more time in the outfield after spending most of last year stationed at first base.
24. Sean Gamble, SS/CF, IMG Academy (FL)
The quick hook: Lefty bat with up-the-middle staying power
No matter how sophisticated evaluative methods become, at the end of the day teams are always going to value players who can hit and run. That’s good news for Gamble, who combines a promising lefty stick with more than enough athleticism to stick at one of the three up-the-middle positions. Gamble does have an outstanding commitment to Vanderbilt that could come into play if he doesn’t go early enough on draft night.
25. Dean Curley, SS/3B, Tennessee
The quick hook: Well-rounded left-side infielder
Curley, a draft-eligible sophomore, is a prospect who operates without extremes. His only surefire plus tool is his arm, one of the better in the class. Otherwise, he’s a player without either an obvious carrying tool or weakness. Curley shows a solid feel for contact and the zone; he has average or better strength; he’s a fine, instinctual runner; and there’s even a chance that he sticks at shortstop, at least to begin his career (before likely sliding to third). Given how bereft this class is of good collegiate hitters, it’s easy to envision Curley climbing boards with a strong showing this spring, particularly within SEC play.
26. Nick Dumesnil, OF, California Baptist
The quick hook: Bigger talent than school
Cal Baptist has never had a player drafted higher than the fourth round. Dumesnil should change that this summer. He piggybacked a breakout year for the Lancers in 2024 by then holding his own in the Cape Cod League, rapping out a .311/.378/.489 slash line with 16 extra-base hits and 26 stolen bases in 36 games. Teams tend to approach mid-major prospects with caution; any given small-school player is more likely to follow Mike Sirota‘s path, leading to a second-day selection, than they are to hop on the Chase DeLauter expressway and arrive in the first round. It won’t help Dumesnil’s case that he’s prone to expanding his zone, even against what’s perceived to be weaker competition. Still, a team who believes in his dynamic skill set and his potential to stick in center could view him as an upside play and roll the dice within the top 50 selections.
27. Quentin Young, 3B/OF, Oaks Christian HS (CA)
The quick hook: Another legacy prep player with upside
The Hollidays and Willits aren’t the only baseball families with a potential first-round prospect in their ranks. There’s also the Youngs. Quentin’s uncles, Dmitri and Delmon, combined to appear in nearly 2,500 big-league games. He has a chance to log service time himself thanks to a fast bat and gangly, projectable 6-foot-5 frame that suggests he should grow into at least plus power. Young’s game does feature a fair amount of swing and miss, and his future defensive home is to be determined. He has a commitment to LSU worth being mindful of if he doesn’t raise his stock this spring.
28. Angel Cervantes, RHP, Warren HS (CA)
The quick hook: Prep righty with a full arsenal
All the usual caveats about prep right-handers apply to Cervantes. I suspect that some team (perhaps one with multiple early selections) will find it in their heart to take him in the top 50 and keep him away from honoring his commitment to UCLA. He has a five-pitch mix, including multiple low-90s fastballs and a plus changeup; he throws strikes even with a delivery that contains elbow creep; and he won’t celebrate his 18th birthday until after draft night, making him more attractive to model-based teams.
29. Landon Harmon, RHP, East Union HS (MS)
The quick hook: Projectable prep righty
Once more, all the usual caveats apply about attrition rates and prep right-handed pitchers. Some team is going to pick Harmon relatively early on the first night of the draft all the same. He’s already shown he can touch into the upper 90s with his carrying fastball, notable given that his lean 6-foot-5 frame hints at him having more room to add muscle. Harmon also receives high marks for his athleticism, allowing him to throw plenty of strikes. The rest of his arsenal will require refinement over the coming years, but again, that’s unlikely to be a dealbreaker when push comes to shove.
30. Matt Scott, RHP, Stanford
The quick hook: A wild card
To be blunt: Scott hasn’t performed well during his collegiate career. Last season, he even showed reduced velocity, creating more cause for concern. Still, I’m putting him at No. 30 because it’s not hard to envision him taking a big step forward this spring. He’s a 6-foot-7 right-hander with several quality offerings to his credit, including a fastball that atones for so-so velocity by featuring a ton of ride. Will Scott actually put it together at Stanford? I don’t know. The road to self-actualization is treacherous and unpredictable; it wouldn’t be worth braving if it were any other way. I do suspect that, at minimum, he’ll be a player of interest for teams confident in their player development staff’s ability to get the most from a pitcher with this much innate talent.
