What to Watch in Spring Training: Velocity readings, new pitches position battles, injuries, and more

38 days until Opening Day … 

Tomorrow afternoon, there will be a real-life MLB game. The first one in four months or so, though the stakes in this one will be considerably lower than the last one. This time, the Dodgers and Cubs will kick off Grapefruit League action at 3:05 p.m. ET, with some combination of names you are intimately familiar with and, before long, guys you’ve probably never heard of wearing numbers in the 70s and 80s. 

It’s Spring Training baseball, and there’s a bit of an uncanny valley aspect to it, even at its most compelling. It is baseball, and even at times, recognizably major-league baseball. But it’ll also feature some guys who won’t even sniff MLB action come April and a few guys who may not ever make the majors after this spring. For us baseball obsessives who are parched for action, it’ll quench our thirst, but you’ve gotta be careful not to overdo it. 

And it’s hard. I know. We want to watch baseball that means something, and we want to react. And the next five or so weeks are all about reminding yourself not to overreact. Spring Training matters in many, many ways, but the actual on-field performance is rarely at the top of the list of reasons why Spring Training matters.

But, I will say, I think some people go too far in saying Spring Training definitely doesn’t matter. In fact, it would be a mistake to ignore everything that happens during the spring as you prepare for your Fantasy Baseball season. You just have to know what you should be paying attention. 

Don’t worry too much about performance. That’s the first thing, and the hardest thing — just repeat “Wyatt Langford’s 2024 Spring Training Hype” to yourself every time you want to overreact to some spring performance. But there is a whole lot else we’ll find out between now and Opening Day that definitely matters. Or, at least, probably matters. 

Here are six types of news stories I’ll be keeping my eyes out for in the spring, with some notes and thoughts on some very early spring storylines to date:   

• Injuries
• Velocity Readings 
• New Pitches
• Lineup News
• Position Battles
• Prospects Gaining Hype

Let’s go through each one to explain why they matter, roughly in order of importance — though if you missed any of our position preview content from the past few weeks, make sure you catch up here, too: 

• Position Strategies: C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | OF | SP | RP
• Position Previews: C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | OF | SP | RP
• Position Tiers: C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | OF | SP | RP

Injuries

Injuries are, obviously, the most important thing to keep track of during Spring Training. Being on the field is necessary for a player to provide an impact for Fantasy, obviously, but there’s also inherent value in simply not having your preparations for the season impacted. Losing three weeks in February may still give a player time to be ready for the start of the season, but if it puts them in a position where they are either behind the competition or playing through a nagging injury all season, it’s easy to see how things can go sideways. 

That being said, knowing when an early-spring injury actually matters is harder to say. Last year, for example, I highlighted injury concerns for Gunnar Henderson, Matt McLain, and Kyle Bradish, all of whom entered camp with injuries. Henderson’s oblique injury ended up being a total non-factor, as he ended up playing 159 games and finishing fourth in AL MVP voting. 

McLain and Bradish weren’t nearly as lucky, though they highlight how different these situations can go. McLain entered camp dealing with lingering soreness from an oblique injury suffered at the end of the previous season, but his season was ultimately derailed by a shoulder injury suffered later in the spring. The lingering nature of that oblique might highlight an inherent fragility in McLain’s profile – he would also suffer what would end up being a season-ending rib cage stress reaction while rehabbing from the shoulder surgery. That oblique might have been a red flag, but it’s hard to say we should have known he would eventually miss the entire season due to seemingly unrelated injuries.

But Bradish? Yeah, he had an elbow sprain at the start of last year’s camp, and while he did end up working through it to make eight fantastic starts, he seemingly never got past the injury. Bradish would end up undergoing Tommy John surgery in June, making him more or less a wasted pick even at an injury-deflated discount.

The lesson here? Well, there’s an obvious one to start with: Avoid pitchers who are already hurt in Spring Training. It doesn’t always end up following the path Bradish’s injury did, but given how often pitchers get hurt, you’re just inviting additional pain if you bet on currently injured pitchers to avoid setbacks or complications. We’ve thankfully avoided too many injuries in the early days of camp, but more are surely coming, and I’m already planning to avoid Brayan Bello (shoulder), Frankie Montas (lat), and Rhett Lowder (elbow) due to early-spring concerns. 

But I’m not going to downgrade the likes of James Wood (quad) or Matt Shaw (oblique) just because they are dealing with some early soreness. Wood did have an MRI on his quad, but he has so far just been held back from fielding drills, so I’m not too worried … yet. 

I am worried about Giancarlo Stanton, who came out of the offseason somehow dealing with significant pain in both elbows that already has his status for Opening Day in doubt. Little in Stanton’s track record suggests there is much value in assuming the best-case scenario regarding his health, and though he can still be an impactful bat, it’s hard to make that bet – even at a late-round cost – when his prep for the season is already being impacted. 

Velocity readings

There are two things I want to say about velocity in particular: 

1. Velocity jumps early in the spring are more noteworthy than velocity drops. 
2. Just because a pitcher’s velocity is different than expected right now does not necessarily mean it will matter come the regular season. 

Velocity drops seem concerning, and if they are the result of an underlying injury, they certainly can be. But pitchers are often building up their arm strength at this point in the spring, and many will consciously throw at lower stress while they are building up. If you’ve been at this long enough, you’ll remember the seemingly annual freakout about Zack Greinke’s early spring velocity; he would almost always end up being perfectly fine once the season started. And even if the velocity was done, he would generally still find ways to be an effective pitcher. When it comes to proven veterans like that, we should be much less worried about early-spring velocity declines. 

On the other side of the ledger, we do love to see pitchers throwing hard. It isn’t a cure-all for every pitcher — I’ve fallen for the “Reid Detmers is throwing harder!” storyline seemingly every year of my career at this point — but, all other things being equal, throwing harder is better. Last spring, Tarik Skubal was already hitting 100 mph at the open of camp, and that led to another jump in velocity, fastball effectiveness, and ultimately, an AL Cy Young award. 

Of course, it’s also worth keeping in mind that reports about velocity during bullpen sessions and live batting practice should be treated much more skeptically than actual velocity readings from actual games. Pitchers are often working on things during those less-competitive outings, and they are typically being relayed from reporters who are glancing at a scout’s radar gun — a far cry from the down-to-the-decimal-point precision of Statcast readings. 

The thing to keep in mind is, while more velocity is typically better, it isn’t a static thing, either. Throwing slower or faster in February doesn’t mean that’s a new baseline. Players might be working on things besides velocity in bullpen sessions, or even during spring games; alternately, some pitchers may choose to air it out a bit more knowing they’re throwing in shorter sessions, rather than trying to hold something for the 90th pitch of the day. Lower velocity is a red flag, while higher velocity is a nice thing to note. But, neither should fundamentally change how you view a player. At least not until we get some more robust data from, ideally, multiple spring games in front of the Statcast system.   

New pitches

The same goes for pitchers throwing new pitches – it isn’t necessarily proof that they will be better, but it is reason to think they could be different, and that’s always worth tracking. 

However, sometimes the pitchers don’t actually want us to track these things. Paul Skenes is playing coy early in camp about the new pitches he is working on, though hitters have to be pretty terrified about the prospect of facing last year’s NL Rookie of the Year with an arsenal even wider than the six-pitch one he befuddled them with last year. That arsenal featured three different breaking balls, a changeup, and Skenes’ “sprinkler” – a sinker/splitter hybrid that he introduced last spring and which immediately became one of the most devilishly tricky pitches in the game. 

Typically, I think it’s a mistake to change how you feel about any pitcher because of a new pitch or two. But they should serve as a reminder to remain open-minded, and potentially to keep a pitcher from falling off your radar. 

A good example from this spring is Marlins pitcher Max Meyer, who largely disappointed in his return from Tommy John surgery last season. His velocity wasn’t quite where it was pre-injury, and his slider went from being a legitimate weapon to a pretty run-of-the-mill pitch. He’s working on refining his changeup, as well as adding a sweeper and two-seam fastball to an arsenal that was almost entirely fastball/slider. The plan is to throw a slower sweeper with more horizontal movement to compliment a more vertically-oriented slider, with the hope that the two separate looks will give him more weapons to handle hitters of both sides. Meyer is very much just a late-round target in all leagues, but he’s now a name to watch when spring action starts up to see what the new additions to his arsenal might mean.

It probably won’t mean anything, of course. But Meyer needed to make some improvements to have a chance to live up to the potential he showed as a prospect, and this gives him a path to it. Let’s keep an eye on it. 

Lineup news

It’s possible to overreact to lineup news in spring training, especially when it comes to spring lineups – is a player batting leadoff in exhibition games because that’s where he is going to hit when the season starts, or is it because the team wants to get him as many game reps as possible? It’s not always clear from the outside. 

That being said, lineup position matters quite a bit. Last season, the No. 1 spot in the order averaged 742.5 plate appearances per team across the majors, while the No. 5 spot averaged 677; No. 9 was down at 600.6. That’s about a 10% difference between the leadoff spot and the No. 5 spot, which is pretty massive. 

That really mattered for Jarren Duran, who went from a part-time player in 2023 to the league leader in plate appearances in 2024, and it was one we were able to identify early on, as Alex Core named him his leadoff hitter early in spring. We haven’t seen any similar pronouncements this spring, but it will be a key thing to keep an eye on as spring moves on. 

Of course, there’s one other caveat to throw in here: Lineups change on an almost daily basis for most teams. Managers would love to have one lineup they can run out there every day without fail, but between injuries and performance uncertainty, there’s a degree of tinkering that goes into managing lineups on a daily basis. So, while it would be big news if, say, we learned Michael Harris was set to lead off in Ronald Acuna‘s absence, it might not matter as much as you might think over the course of a full season, simply because it may not stick. 

Position battles

This is an obvious one, and it applies to both pitchers and hitters. We’ll have more in the coming days in the newsletter on the top position battles to watch across the league, but here are just a few to keep an eye on right now:

• Athletics: OF – Specifically: Does Brent Rooker play in the outfield? He had eligibility there in 2024 but didn’t play enough to retain it for 2025, making him one of the four big DH-only bats in drafts. But he also seems to have the best chance of any of those four of actually playing regularly in the outfield after undergoing offseason surgery to repair a forearm injury that kept him in the DH spot for most of 2025. If he’s playing the outfield regularly this spring, I don’t mind bumping Rooker up in my rankings in the hope he gains OF eligibility in April. 
• Astros: What’s going on with Jose Altuve? – Despite their failure to bring Alex Bregman back, Altuve looks like he might still give a transition to the outfield a try this spring. That would probably mean Mauricio Dubon starts every day at 2B if Altuve really is the everyday LF, though he’s hardly an exciting option, so this one is more about the curiosity of seeing Altuve move to the outfield for the first time in his mid-30s. 
• Red Sox: 2B – The signing of Alex Bregman seems to have answered this question, especially when Rafael Devers stated emphatically that he views himself as a third baseman. The Red Sox have Kristian Campbell seemingly ready for the majors, but it looks like he, Marcelo Mayer, and Roman Anthony will all open the season in Triple-A barring something unforeseen. 
• Orioles: 2B/3B – It seems like there is one open spot in the infield, and unfortunately for Coby Mayo, it might be at second base. Jordan Westburg is going to focus on third base this spring, which would seem to indicate that the Orioles view Jackson Holliday as a better bet to contribute immediately than Mayo. They might just think Mayo is a better fit at 1B or DH, though finding playing time for him at either spot would require a trade or injury to either Ryan Mountcastle or Ryan O’Hearn. It looks like Mayo may just be blocked. Again. 
• Dodgers: 2B, SS, and CF – We know Mookie Betts and Tommy Edman are going to be in two of those spots, and it seems likely to be shortstop and center field, respectively. But if Hyeseong Kim can’t hack it as a hitter or one of James Outman or Andy Pages has a really good spring, both Betts and Edman are flexible enough to shift around. 
• Cubs: 3B/2B – Did they sign Justin Turner to serve as an overqualified bench piece, or is he actual competition for Matt Shaw at 3B? Or, does the signing indicate some concern about Nico Hoerner‘s availability as he comes back from flexor tendon surgery? Shaw can play three infield spots, so let’s hope there’s somewhere for him to play. 
• Tigers: 1B – Colt Keith seems likely to be the team’s Opening Day first baseman after an offseason transition from the hot corner, but it’s possible Spencer Torkelson could beat him out for the job. Torkelson probably has a bit more upside, so I actually wouldn’t mind if that came to fruition; otherwise, Torkelson might be ticketed for a trip back to Triple-A, or maybe a short-side platoon at either 1B or DH. 
• Angels: CF – Mike Trout is going to be moving to right field full-time, and it really doesn’t seem like the Angels had a plan for that. Which is weird, because we have no reason to believe this move came as a surprise to the organization. It sounds like they’re going to roll with some combination of Jo Adell, Mickey Moniak, and Taylor Ward in center field, and while none of those are particularly good options for the Angels, Fantasy players would probably rather see Adell and his 25-homer, 15-steal upside get an extended look. 
• Cardinals: C and 2B – It’ll be some combination of Ivan Herrera and Pedro Pages behind the plate for the Cardinals, and I’m hoping they lean more on Herrera, the better hitter of the two. At second base, the Cardinals seem likely to go with a combination of Nolan Gorman and Brendan Donovan, with Gorman seeing time at DH when he isn’t in the field. Of course, a trade of Nolan Arenado would clear up the hot corner for Gorman, who still carries some post-hype sleeper appeal if he can get everyday ABs. Then there’s also Thomas Saggese who has some prospect hype of his own after consecutive seasons of 20-plus homers and at least nine steals. 
• Marlins: 1B/DH – Deyvison De Los Santos seemingly has little left to prove in Triple-A, but I’ve been operating under the assumption that the Marlins are going to give at least a look to older names like Matt Mervis, Griffin Conine, and Kyle Stowers before they really give De Los Santos a chance. He might just blow them away this spring, but I think the Marlins would probably prefer to give the other guys a chance to fail before turning to De Los Santos. 
• Diamondbacks: CF? – With Geraldo Perdomo signing an extension, Jordan Lawlar‘s path to both short-term and long-term playing time may come through the outfield. He doesn’t have much in-game experience there, however, so this one feels purely speculative until we see something more. 

This isn’t an exhaustive list, and we’ll have more to say as the games get a little closer. 

Prospects gaining hype

Alright, this stuff is tough. Two years ago, Anthony Volpe and Jordan Walker were the big names shooting up draft boards with a big spring. In 2024, it was Wyatt Langford who parlayed a huge spring into a top-75 price in most drafts by the end of spring. And I think it’s fair to say it hasn’t really worked out for us. 

Maybe the lesson here is to cool it on the rookie hype in the spring. Maybe the lesson here is to acknowledge that even the most MLB-ready prospects may not hit the ground running right away. Even Jackson Chourio and Jackson Merrill, who had terrific rookie seasons, were mostly Fantasy also-rans for the first couple of months of 2024 before eventually locking in. 

There aren’t many top prospects generating huge hype this offseason, at least. Of Scott White’s top-10 prospects for 2025, only Roki Sasaki, Dylan Crews, and Jasson Dominguez are likely to go in the first 150 picks in most leagues, and all three feel like exceptions in their own ways. Sasaki is one of the most talented pitchers to ever come over from Japan, and while I think he’s being overvalued for 2025 drafts, he’s hardly as unproven as Jackson Jobe, say. And Crews and Dominguez are both locked into everyday roles for Opening Day and have already had their tastes of the majors. 

Otherwise, we’re looking at the following names this spring as possible names to crash the Opening Day party: 

• Matt Shaw, 3B, Cubs
• Kristian Campbell, 2B, Red Sox
• Roman Anthony, OF, Red Sox
• Jordan Lawlar, SS, Diamondbacks
• Jackson Jobe, RP, Tigers
• Coby Mayo, 3B, Orioles
• Marcelo Mayer, SS, Red Sox
• Chase DeLauter, OF, Guardians
• Quinn Mathews, SP, Cardinals
• Bubba Chandler, Sp, Pirates
• Kumar Rocker, SP, Rangers
• Chase Dollander, SP, Rockies
• Agustin Ramirez, C, Marlins