The New York Mets‘ rotation took another early hit on Monday as left-hander Sean Manaea was diagnosed with a strained right oblique. He’s expected to be shut down for two weeks or so and is likely to open the regular season on the injured list. “It could take 7, 14, 21 days to heal,” manager Carlos Mendoza said of Manaea’s injury. “Once he’s symptom free he’ll start his throwing again.”
According to Baseball Prospectus data, a pitcher with an oblique strain is sidelined for 48 days on average.
The 33-year-old Manaea returned to the Mets this offseason on a three-year, $75 million free-agent contract. He’s coming off a 2024 season for the Mets in which he pitched to a 3.47 ERA (114 ERA+) and a 3.83 FIP in 32 starts and 181 ⅔ innings. For his career, he owns an ERA+ of 102 across parts of nine big-league seasons.
Manaea’s injury comes mere days after fellow Mets starter Frankie Montas was diagnosed with a lat strain. He may be facing an absence of up to two months, even barring setbacks. The Mets do have some rotation depth, but it’s already being tested. That’s to say nothing of the uncertainties surrounding Clay Holmes‘ planned conversion from reliever to starter and Kodai Senga‘s potential durability concerns.
Given that the Mets are quite invested in success in 2025 – you’ll of course recall they landed biggest of all fishes Juan Soto this winter and brought back Pete Alonso on a short-term pact, among other moves – it’s possible they’ll look to the trade market after taking this pair of hits to the rotation. Following news of the Montas injury, The Athletic reported that the Mets were not inclined to add a starter from outside the organization, but perhaps the Manaea news has changed that thinking.
As noted, there’s depth to the extent that a six-man rotation was in play prior to Montas’ injury, and there’s still a competition in place for the fifth spot. The Mets still have mid- to back-end solutions, which means they probably won’t be tempted by mid-grade starters still on the market like Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn, Spencer Turnbull, and old friend Jose Quintana.
As for an arm who could replace Manaea’s front-end presence, the options are limited on the trade market. The most alluring of these is Padres ace Dylan Cease. The Padres are in cost-cutting mode and may be looking to move Cease and his $13.25 million salary as he heads into his walk year. The 29-year-old right-hander is coming off a 2024 campaign in which he struck out 224 batters in 189 ⅓ innings, put up a 3.10 FIP, and finished fourth in the NL Cy Young balloting. That’s not an aberration, as Cease has topped 200 strikeouts in each of the last four seasons and amassed a WAR of 16.0 over that same span. He’d give the Mets what they presently lack, which is a genuine ace.
Elsewhere, Cease’s teammate Michael King may be available in his stead. Acquired from the Yankees as part of the December 2023 Juan Soto blockbuster, King fared remarkably well in his first season as a full-time starter. In 173 ⅔ frames, he put up 2.95 ERA/3.33 FIP with 201 strikeouts and earned a seventh-place finish in the NL Cy Young vote. Like Cease, he’s eligible for free agency at the end of the upcoming season.
A somewhat more modest target might be Cardinals right-hander Erick Fedde. Fedde, who turns 32 on Tuesday, rebuilt his career during a 2023 stint in Korea. He returned stateside to the White Sox last season, and before and after his deadline trade to St. Louis worked 177 ⅓ combined innings with a 126 ERA+, a 3.86 FIP, and a WAR of 5.6. Also appealing is the fact that Fedde is owed just $7.5 million for the upcoming season in advance of his return to free agency.
It remains to be seen whether president of baseball operations David Stearns and the Mets will add to the rotation in light of the Manaea news, but if they do they should aim higher than a depth play. That likely means exploring trades for one of the three names above, with a preference for either of the Padres’ big arms.
