Few things have gone according to plan this season for the Atlanta Braves. They enter Monday with a 27-37 record, the product of losing seven games in a row and 14 of their last 17. The Braves have been particularly snakebitten in one-run games, amassing one of the worst records in the majors in those contests, at 9-19. (That equals a 52-win pace over a full season.) Logic dictates that the Braves, who have maintained a positive run differential through it all, will see their fortunes turn over the coming weeks. For now, though, Atlanta can be justified in celebrating the bright spots where they can find them — like in the personage of rookie catcher Drake Baldwin.
Baldwin, whose inclusion on the Opening Day roster was precipitated by Sean Murphy’s cracked left rib, has earned his keep even beyond Murphy’s return. (The Braves instead sent Chadwick Tromp packing.) In the process, the Braves have afforded manager Brian Snitker the rarest of luxuries: two catchers who can mash. Snitker has responded by leveraging the tandem to keep both fresh, essentially alternating the two on a game-by-game basis as of late. It’s working.
Murphy has rebounded from a down season to hit for a 115 OPS+ through his first 40 games. Baldwin, meanwhile, comes into Monday hitting .303/.351/.508 (139 OPS+) with seven home runs and four other extra-base hits in his first 42 games. Describing Baldwin as one of the early favorites to capture the National League’s Rookie of the Year Award is no stretch, either (Caesars‘ odds have him in first place at +155). The only National League freshman with more Wins Above Replacement is Milwaukee Brewers right-hander Chad Patrick.
Baldwin’s ascent shouldn’t be too much of a surprise. Back in the spring, CBS Sports ranked him as the 32nd-best prospect in the minors. Here’s what we wrote at the time:
Originally a third-round in 2022 from Missouri State University, Baldwin now finds himself on the cusp of his big-league debut. He split the season between Double- and Triple-A, hitting .276/.370/.423 with 16 home runs. Baldwin has legitimate thump, recording a handful of balls with exit velocities over 110 mph, including a 111.9 mph entry that would have placed him in the top 90 maximum exit velocities in the majors. That kind of power from a lefty-hitting catcher makes him notable on its own, but that’s not all he brings to the table. He also minds the zone well and grades as an average defender behind the dish. Atlanta’s decision to part with Travis d’Arnaud clears a pathway for Baldwin to enjoy a prolonged big-league stay in the bigs this season, with a chance for him to take the most-days job as his own if Sean Murphy again struggles.
Sure enough, Baldwin has lived up to the billing. Coming into Sunday, he ranked third among catchers in the percentage of batted balls that have cleared 95 mph (55.9%). He also ranks seventh in contact rate (81.5%). Generally, any hitter who makes authoritative and frequent contact at the same time is going to be successful.
What makes Baldwin’s offensive game particularly interesting is how he generates his power. There’s nothing wrong with obsessively pulling the ball in the air; that’s just not how he operates. While Baldwin makes contact out in front of the plate, his barrel is angled toward the opposite field. He’s still hit most of his home runs to his pull side, but that combination does at times result in scenes like the one below, where he sails a ball into the left-field bullpen:
Additionally, Baldwin’s average launch angle on hard-hit balls is around 10 degrees. It’s about -1 degrees on all other batted balls. What that means is that Baldwin, at his best, is hitting the ball on a rope. When he’s not making his best quality of contact, his swing path is such that he’s likely to hit the ball into the earth. If that reminds you of someone, well, that someone just might be a different former Braves catcher: current Brewer William Contreras.
| Catcher | Avg LA on 95+ mph | Avg LA on non-95+ mph |
|---|---|---|
|
Baldwin |
10.1 degrees |
-0.9 degrees |
|
Contreras |
9.2 degrees |
1.7 degrees |
For as promising as Baldwin looks at the plate, don’t ignore his contributions behind it. So far, he ranks in the 70th percentile in framing and in the 60th percentile in controlling the running game. Baldwin’s blocking doesn’t grade as well, but it doesn’t need to for him to provide positive value overall.
Arguably the biggest question facing Baldwin’s future is how the Braves navigate the next 12 to 18 months with their catching situation. Murphy, who isn’t far removed from being held as one of the best in the business, is under contract through at least the 2028 season. The Braves could dangle him in trade talks as a means of improving another part of their roster.
Yet the Braves have shown in the recent past that they’re willing to carry two quality backstops at a time. It’s theoretically possible they think that the best way to keep a good catcher hearty and hale and productive is to have two of them.
That looks like it’ll be the case in Atlanta from now until whenever the Braves make a decision on Murphy.
