ACC strength of schedule rankings 2025: Navigable road for Bill Belichick, steep climb ahead at Florida State

Conference expansion has created a schedule imbalance across these massive leagues, making strength of schedule a key factor in predicting college football win-loss records. That’s especially true in the ACC, which expanded to 17 teams last year with the additions of Cal, Stanford and SMU. The 2024 season was a prime example of how a team’s draw can impact its success on the field.

In 2024, we noted that Syracuse and SMU entered the season with favorable schedules. First-year coach Fran Brown seized the opportunity, leading the Orange to just the program’s third double-digit win season since 2000 and sparking a true revival story in the Northeast. SMU capitalized as well, finishing 8-0 in conference play, reaching the ACC Championship Game and earning a berth in the College Football Playoff.

Of course, the schedule isn’t everything. Both coaches took care of business in a way that other ACC teams with similarly manageable paths did not. And a tough draw doesn’t prevent success either — Clemson, Louisville and Georgia Tech each posted strong 2024 campaigns despite challenging slates.

But until these expanded leagues increase the number of conference games, we’ll continue to rank and debate schedule disparities. Our perceptions of these teams may shift by mid-October, but history shows that a favorable or unfavorable draw can be worth an extra win-or two-on a team’s final record.