One of the biggest fights of the year goes down this Saturday in Las Vegas when Saul “Canelo” Alvarez defends his undisputed super middleweight championship against former welterweight and junior welterweight undisputed champion Terence Crawford.
Crawford is jumping up two weight classes for the biggest opportunity of his career, facing a generational talent for undisputed gold on Netflix. Alvarez is looking to clear yet another challenge from an elite fighter and add to his already Hall of Fame-worthy resume.
Crawford has fought just once since a 2023 beatdown of Errol Spence Jr. to become undisputed welterweight champion. He defeated Israil Madrimov in 2024 at junior middleweight in a performance that left fans wanting more from the pound-for-pound great. Alvarez, meanwhile, has let people down with his choice of opponents lately. The Mexican star recently defeated William Scull to regain his status as undisputed champ at super middleweight, but the fight was dreadful after Scull chose to run around and not fight. But now, both men get a chance to silence the doubters that have come up in a big way on the big stage.
These are the kind of fights that grab the public’s attention, and with that attention comes an interest at the sportsbooks. With that in mind, we’re here to offer up our best picks heading into Saturday’s megafight. We’ll break down our choices for the best moneyline, prop and undercard bets to make.
Is it worth making a play on Crawford as the slight underdog? Will the fight go the distance? What’s the best bet on the undercard action? Let’s jump to our answers to those questions with odds via BetRivers.
Best Canelo vs. Crawford moneyline bet
Likely the biggest question coming into this fight is simply whether Alvarez has it in him to fight like his old self, rather than the passive, disinterested fighter who showed up against William Scull. If Alvarez fights like “Canelo,” we’ve all likely spent months overthinking the specifics. Crawford didn’t look as powerful at junior middleweight as he had at welterweight and he’s now moving up an additional two divisions to face a man with a rock-solid chin. If Alvarez is passive, Crawford can outwork him, but if Alvarez is keyed in and ready to fight, the current line is a bit of a steal. Pick: Saul “Canelo” Alvarez (-155)
Best Canelo vs. Crawford prop bet
This fight feels almost certain to go the distance. Both fighters have good chins, Crawford probably doesn’t carry massive power up to 168 and Alvarez has gone seven fights without stopping an opponent. Fight to go the distance is currently sitting at -305, which might be a bit too wide to entice many people. However, both fighters have very solid lines to win by decision. Crawford by decision is +195 and Alvarez by decision is +132. For our pick here, we’ll roll with Alvarez via decision, but if you’re liking Crawford, you’re better off taking him by decision at +195 than the moneyline at +135. Pick: Saul “Canelo” Alvarez via decision (+132)
Best Canelo vs. Crawford undercard bet
Calum Walsh battles Fernando Vargas Jr. ahead of Alvarez vs. Crawford. Walsh has gotten a major push from TKO, with the company backing him as a future superstar and likely a cornerstone piece of the eventual Zuffa Boxing project. Vargas is the son of former world champion Fernando Vargas. While neither man has been through the fire of stiff competition, Walsh has faced the better quality of lower-tier opposition, which is part of why he’s -305 to win. Only five of their combined 31 professional fights have hit the scorecards. Between power in their punches and somewhat open styles that could result in some clean shots, we’re liking the fight to hit the round under. Pick: Walsh vs. Vargas under 8.5 rounds (+140)
