After the Pittsburgh Steelers lost to the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday in a game in which Aaron Rodgers completed just 18-of-33 passes for 203 yards and was intercepted twice, a reporter asked the Steelers quarterback, “Is this starting to get a little frustrating?”
Rodgers had a clear, definitive answer.
“It’s Week 2. C’mon, now,” he said. “It’s Week 2. I mean, like, it’s good for us. Last week [after a 34-32 win over the Jets] probably there were some people who were feeling pretty good because everybody outside the building was talking about how great we were on offense and 34 points. That’s the league. You can’t ride the highs or ride the lows. You’ve got to refocus every single week and be a professional.”
The response recalled Rodgers’ famous message from 2014 when, as quarterback of the Packers, he told fans who were panicking after Green Bay’s 1-2 start to the season to “R-E-L-A-X.” He was right; the Packers won nine of their next 10 games and reached the playoffs.
But even though Rodgers is correct about the season being young, the data shows that Pittsburgh’s Week 3 game at the New England Patriots carries significant urgency. According to SportsLine’s Inside the Lines team’s projection model, no NFL team’s season swings more on its Week 3 outcome than the Steelers’.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, says Pittsburgh (1-1) enters Week 3 with a 52.5% chance of reaching the playoffs. If Rodgers & Co. beat New England, that percentage climbs to 60.7%. But if the Steelers lose, their chances of making the postseason drops to 37.3%. The 23.4% differential is the largest of any of the 32 NFL teams in Week 3.
| Chance to make playoffs | Current | After Win | After Loss | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 52.5% | 60.7% | 37.3% | 23.4% |
| Arizona Cardinals | 37.9% | 50.4% | 28.8% | 21.6% |
| Denver Broncos | 65.8% | 75.5% | 55.4% | 20.1% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 30.6% | 39.4% | 19.6% | 19.8% |
| Los Angeles Rams | 60.6% | 73.3% | 53.6% | 19.7% |
| San Francisco 49ers | 76.5% | 81.7% | 62.5% | 19.2% |
| Houston Texans | 27.3% | 36.3% | 17.5% | 18.8% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 49.6% | 60.2% | 42.6% | 17.6% |
| Washington Commanders | 47.6% | 51.2% | 34.1% | 17.1% |
| Indianapolis Colts | 79.2% | 83.3% | 66.6% | 16.7% |
| Seattle Seahawks | 30.5% | 36.0% | 20.0% | 16.0% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 56.3% | 60.2% | 44.4% | 15.8% |
| Dallas Cowboys | 25.1% | 31.3% | 15.6% | 15.7% |
| New England Patriots | 14.7% | 24.4% | 8.7% | 15.7% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 42.2% | 47.4% | 31.7% | 15.7% |
| Detroit Lions | 64.3% | 72.8% | 58.2% | 14.6% |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 87.6% | 90.8% | 77.6% | 13.2% |
| Atlanta Falcons | 20.9% | 25.7% | 13.0% | 12.7% |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 17.5% | 26.2% | 14.4% | 11.8% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 92.1% | 93.0% | 82.5% | 10.5% |
| New Orleans Saints | 10.6% | 16.9% | 6.6% | 10.3% |
| Miami Dolphins | 9.5% | 17.6% | 8.0% | 9.6% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 90.9% | 91.8% | 83.3% | 8.5% |
| Green Bay Packers | 96.9% | 97.8% | 89.7% | 8.1% |
| Baltimore Ravens | 95.0% | 96.0% | 88.7% | 7.3% |
| New York Jets | 7.8% | 12.8% | 5.9% | 6.9% |
| Tennessee Titans | 5.5% | 9.2% | 2.8% | 6.4% |
| Chicago Bears | 2.5% | 4.3% | 1.2% | 3.1% |
| Cleveland Browns | 1.2% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 1.5% |
| Carolina Panthers | 0.8% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 1.0% |
| New York Giants | 0.7% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.8% |
| Buffalo Bills | 99.9% | 100.0% | 99.3% | 0.7% |
One of the reasons for the added urgency for Pittsburgh in Week 3 is the team’s increasingly difficult schedule after Sunday. The Steelers’ first three opponents (Jets, Seahawks and Patriots) did not make the postseason last year. But of Pittsburgh’s last 14 games, seven come against returning playoff teams. And that does not include a Week 9 game against the Colts, who didn’t reach the postseason last year but lead the AFC South at 2-0.
The Steelers are slim 1.5-point favorites against the Patriots.
Two other teams that face big swing games in Week 3 are the Arizona Cardinals (2-0), who face the 49ers (2-0) in San Francisco, and the Denver Broncos (1-1), who travel to Los Angeles to play the Chargers (2-0). The Cardinals can increase their odds of making the postseason by 12.5% with a victory over San Francisco. Like Arizona, Denver would also greatly enhance its chances if it can earn a key road win against the divisional leader.
But no team has more urgency than Rodgers, coach Mike Tomlin and the rest of the Steelers.
Said Tomlin earlier this week, “Certainly there needs to be a lot of irons in the fire as we work to get that taste out of our mouth from a negative performance and secure victory this week.”
