In the tight end rankings below, the first three tiers are the only place I feel confident you’ll find a must-start tight end. If there’s one player in Tier 4 who would challenge that statement, it’s Zach Ertz, but I have just enough questions about him to keep him out of Tier 3.
Before we get to the questions, it’s worth noting that Ertz had a remarkable resurgence after joining the Arizona Cardinals. His 52.2 yards per game was better than he produced in 2020 and 2021 with the Eagles. And his 7.1 yards per target was his best rate since the 2018 season. But, to be clear, 7.1 is not an elite number at all for a tight end, Ertz was very much dependent on a high number of targets. And that’s where my concerns come in.
Almost all of Ertz’s production came without DeAndre Hopkins on the field last year. While Hopkins will miss the first six games of 2022 as well, Marquise Brown will be there as the team’s No. 1. Even with Brown, I would expect Ertz to see enough volume to be startable for those six games, but I’m very concerned about his volume once both Hopkins and Brown are on the field.
So maybe I should have a Tier 3.5, with Ertz as a surefire starter for six weeks and then a question mark with upside. Because question mark with upside is exactly how I would define the rest of this tier.
Irv Smith, Gerald Everett, Cole Kmet, Pat Freietmuth, and Mike Gesicki all have TE6 upside if absolutely everything goes their way. But their floor is that of a touchdown-dependent streamer. The two I draft most often are Kmet and Smith. Kmet because of the potential for him to be the Bears No. 2 target in the passing game, Smith because of the 80-plus targets likely coming his way in what we expect to be a much-improved Vikings offense.
The best advice I can give about Tier 4 and beyond, is that if you miss out on the first three tiers you should probably just draft two and hope you find one. You should also get comfortable with the idea of streaming.
Here are the rest of my tight end tiers.
