10 league-winning breakout candidates
• 1 min read
One of the flaws of building rankings with projections as a baseline is that you can struggle to find the breakouts. That’s because most projections are designed to find the most likely outcome, not the best case outcome. And most breakouts end up being guys who hit their upside, not guys who hit their projection. But occasionally there are guys who project for career years, in 2022 two of them are Philadelphia Eagles Jalen Hurts and Dallas Goedert.
I wrote immediately after the A.J. Brown trade that how Hurts had QB1 overall upside, and my stance hasn’t softened on that. But even Hurts’ projection is a step up from what he’s done so far in the league. Some of that is expected. After all, he now has a true No. 1 receiver in Brown, and as a quarterback who has only thrown 580 passes in the NFL, we should already be expecting some improvement in terms of passing efficiency.
I would also expect the Eagles will pass considerably more in 2022 due to Hurts’ improvement and the arrival of Brown. Last year the team threw 494 passes, this year I have them projected for 555, with would have ranked 20th in 2021. That increase in pass volume helps explain how Goedert could have a career year even with Brown in the mix.
Goedert earned a 22% target share after Zach Ertz left Philadelphia, but if my increase is correct, he’d only need an 18% target share to maintain volume. And that volume had him on a 1,000-yard pace in the final 10 games of 2021. Considering Nick Sirianni has topped 21% in tight end target share each of the past three seasons, that number may be pessimistic. Add in some touchdown regression and Goedert becomes my No. 6 tight end, but he’s drafted eighth or lower in most drafts.
Their ADP makes it easy to pair Hurts and Goedert in Round 5 and Round 7, allowing you to spend your first four picks on running backs and wide receivers. I have more than a few suggestions below.
Projections powered by Sportsline
