Fantasy Football 2022 Draft Prep: Unpacking film notes on Dameon Pierce, Julio Jones, Justin Fields & more

The third week of the preseason is over and everyone is picking their Fantasy teams. It’s more important than ever to have the latest information and opinions heading into your big draft days.

That’s the goal here. I’m going to spill my guts on everything I saw from the third week of the preseason, sorted by position. I’ll keep it brief so you can read it all quickly, and I’ll bold up anything that I think is really important.

Hopefully this helps you feel good about the squad you put together.

Quarterbacks for every league

Jalen Hurts, Eagles: I wrote about why I’ve bought into Hurts as a top-five quarterback. He has a shot to be excellent for Fantasy managers.

Trey Lance, 49ers: I wrote about why I’m still taking Lance at pick No. 100 or later, but there’s considerably more downside because of what I saw against the Texans, and what I’ve read from others.

Tom Brady, Buccaneers: There was nothing off about Tom Brady in his first televised action of the summer.  He was poised and accurate, just as we’ve seen him for decades. As for worries about his offensive line, it did a good job on all eight of his drop backs, but being honest, many of Brady’s throws were quick releases. That means the O-line did not have to block for very long. I’m still reasonably confident the Buccaneers will be able to work through any offensive line issues they have, but it would still be great if they made a move before Week 1 to further stabilize the protection in front of Brady. The GOAT is still among the very best values on Draft Day as long as he’s the seventh quarterback or later off the board.

Justin Fields, Bears: If Fields plays like he did in limited time against the Browns, he’ll be one of the best breakout passers in Fantasy. He was accurate, he made great decisions both in terms of where to go with the football and when to leave the pocket. And his ability to manipulate defenses with his mobility was on display, reminding me of one of my favorite traits of his when he was at Ohio State. Of course, he was also getting great protection from his offensive line. The biggest concern Fantasy managers have about Fields is whether or not his blockers will be even decent, much less good. The better they are, the better Fields will be. Not having a reliable No. 2 receiver is also a worry. But his play against the Browns did make me feel a little more optimistic about taking Fields as a breakout candidate with a late-round pick.

Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins: Tyreek Hill alone may carry Tagovailoa to a solid season. Hill’s speed is unreal. You knew that, but his ability to separate on short and intermediate routes is going to drive defenses insane. The good news is that Tagovailoa seems to be in sync with Hill — that much was gleaned against the Eagles in practice and in the preseason game. Tagovailoa will still need to be schemed up as a passer in order to have success (bootlegs, quick screens, RPOs, etc.) — he missed some open receivers in the preseason game — but he was keen enough to make the right call on an RPO and hit Mike Gesicki for an 18-yard gain. Like Fields, Tagovailoa will need his O-line to play well in order for him to play well. Unlike Fields, Tagovailoa has some excellent receivers. If rushing yards didn’t matter, Tagovailoa would be better than Fields in Fantasy. But they do, so Tagovailoa should be viewed as a cheaper breakout Fantasy quarterback.

Quarterbacks for Superflex/2QB

Jameis Winston, Saints: It’s a very small sample size — nine snaps — but Winston appeared to be a reliable, mostly accurate quarterback. He threw with timing and anticipation to Jarvis Landry on a 20 yard throw, he kept his eyes downfield to find Landry again over the middle on a tight window dart, he was a little high and wide of Chris Olave on another deep-middle pass, but he found him while going through his progressions. Finally, I loved him checking down to Alvin Kamara instead of trying to force the ball further down field. There’s also this: Andy Dalton was very good at finding receivers. Between these two and the way the receivers were schemed up and the way the offensive line blocked, I feel the Saints offense is fundamentally sound and should be good this year. Drafting Winston and Dalton in a Superflex league sounds like a cost-effective idea.

Baker Mayfield, Panthers: I wish I could tell you that Mayfield was flawless, but the truth is he was inconsistent. There were times where he misfired to open receivers, particularly on deeper routes, and there were times where he made good reads and anticipatory throws. His touchdown to Shi Smith was great; his touchdown toss to D’Onta Foreman was nearly off-target if not for Foreman picking it from his right butt cheek. I fear Mayfield will end up being more up and down than consistent, and that will probably be reflected in his Fantasy production.

Mac Jones: I felt like I was watching a rookie when I saw Jones against the Raiders, which is the direct opposite of what I said when Jones was actually a rookie. He seemed very sensitive to pressure, even when there was very little coming at him. His interception was not just a bad throw but a late throw, suggesting he didn’t read the coverage properly. Not until the second quarter did Jones start playing a little bit better when his offensive line was collapsed, and it collapsed frequently. If the Patriots can’t fix their O-line issues, their whole season could be harpooned. That goes for everyone, not just Jones. I would pass on Jones in drafts unless he was something like the 24th quarterback off the board.

Quarterback for the future

Malik Willis, Titans: I counted seven on-target throws (excluding a dump screen to his running back), seven off-target throws (including one inside of five yards), five predetermined throws (excluding a called running back screen), four times he had good reason to leave the pocket, four times he was not bothered by a pass rush, three times he held the ball too long, and two times he missed seeing a good target downfield. His interception was off a tipped pass and shouldn’t be on him. All in all, he didn’t make many awful decisions as a passer, and he ran really well, so it was an encouraging outing for the rookie. The time is now to snag him in Dynasty, be it as a value-add in the draft or via trade if he tumbled in the draft and someone reluctantly plucked him. 

Running backs

David Montgomery & Khalil Herbert, Bears: Montgomery showed flashes of burst and speed to go with his power, reminding me why he’s one of Fantasy’s better backs. But it did not help that he was stuffed for 2  yards or fewer on five of his nine carries. As with Fields, his O-line is a problem, and unlike Fields, he can’t get around it as easily. Furthermore, the front five’s inefficiency in the run game might make Herbert a little more appealing because he’s quicker than Montgomery. He may be a better runner in a zone scheme. This might evolve into a thunder and lightning duo, but that still should mean Montgomery is used in short-yardage situations way more often. And Montgomery is better at handling targets and blocking. Herbert’s among my favorite late-round lottery ticket stashes.

Dameon Pierce, Texans: You probably already love Pierce so much that he’ll be your fourth-round pick or something, but there’s more you should know. Not only is he a smooth runner with great cuts and improved balance, but he also held up in pass protection against a defensive lineman on the 49ers! That had to have gotten him some cred with his coaches. He really does check off a lot of boxes — I think he could eventually be a three-down player for the Texans, but probably not to start the year. Matchups against the Colts and Broncos to begin also make me a tad wary about some early-season success. If you’re taking Pierce in Round 5, you’re doing alright. Round 4 is too close to his ceiling.

Rhamondre Stevenson, Patriots: There were a couple of plays against Las Vegas where I thought Stevenson should have had more yards. Not all of them are on him — in some cases his blocking wasn’t good and he made the most of it, like on his third carry where he cut back on an edge run and found a tight space to power through for 6 yards. I wish I saw more explosiveness from Stevenson on a red-zone run to the left side where he followed his blockers against an out-of-position defense. He would have had a touchdown. He’s definitely talented, but his offensive line could be as much of a problem as Damien Harris blocking his path to a large workload. 

Tyler Allgeier, Falcons: The rookie got a lot of run in the third preseason game, starting and going into the fourth quarter. For a big guy, he moved very well. Good hands, too. Physical and capable of shedding tacklers. Arthur Smith fed him on four straight plays to end a drive with a short-yardage touchdown. He has a lot of good traits; it’s just a matter of when we’ll see him in the offense. If the Falcons use Cordarrelle Patterson as a running back, and Damien Williams as the guy behind him, Allgeier will have to wait a while. If you draft Allgeier in Round 11-plus, be prepared to stay patient.

Isiah Pacheco & Ronald Jones, Chiefs: It sure seems like Clyde Edwards-Helaire will open the season as the Chiefs’ top back. We might see Jerick McKinnon be on the field in obvious passing situations. It doesn’t leave a lot of room for Pacheco and Jones. But both made a positive impact in their last preseason game — Pacheco by following blocks and flashing good speed, vision and decisiveness and Jones by running with more power than we had seen in the past. They’re good depth for the Chiefs, and Pacheco is particularly talented, but it’s a little tough to see either one being great for Fantasy until something goes wrong for Edwards-Helaire. Jones won’t get drafted in any typical league, but Pacheco shouldn’t be a thought until at least Round 11.

Kenneth Gainwell, Eagles: Between his usage at practices in Miami and him starting and playing a little bit in the third preseason game, I don’t think the coaching staff views Gainwell as a future feature back. Even if Miles Sanders is hurt, Gainwell will share like he did in practice with Boston Scott. His role is his role. He is fast and is a good pass-catcher and his size isn’t a detriment, but he’s probably not going to see 15-plus touches very often.

Tight ends after Round 8

Cole Kmet, Bears: His touchdown was due to a breakdown by the Browns defense. He figures to get a lot of targets, and that’s what matters most, but man, don’t expect him to be some kind of speedy, separating machine. Furthermore, I think all it will take is for one Bears receiver to step up and become a viable target in the offense to send Kmet’s stock on a downward spiral. There’s a name later who it could be. Maybe. Possibly. Anyway, draft Kmet late — Round 9 at the earliest — but don’t be shocked if you’re bailing on him by Week 4.

David Njoku, Browns: OK look, Njoku had solid straight-line speed but I was a little disappointed he didn’t have much agility or quickness (in my notes I wrote “it took him a week and a half to turn back to Jacoby Brissett on a comeback route”). What he did have were a lot of short routes and easy throws for Brissett to make. I would bank on that continuing. Njoku has a real shot to be the second-most targeted member of the Browns this year, and it’s on that hope that I’d take him as a streaming tight end in Round 12-plus.

Cameron Brate, Buccaneers: Brate started and played six straight snaps before Kyle Rudolph played three. Then Brate was back in to catch Brady’s last pass against the Colts. I felt like maybe Brate was slightly faster than Rudolph, but he has so much experience working with Brady and also has a better understanding of the offense. I can’t help but wonder if we’re missing the boat here and Brate is the next Gronk in Tampa’s offense. If there was ever a case to stash a tight end for just Week 1 to see if he has some meaningful value, this would be it. Brate is last-round material.

Wide receivers with wide ADPs

Julio Jones, Buccaneers: I hate to say it but Jones didn’t move like he used to. He wasn’t sudden. What he did have was timing with Tom Brady, and to be fair, he did turn back to Brady on comeback routes pretty quickly. You could see it on a hitch route where Brady already had the ball out of his hand before Jones had finished turning back toward him. I don’t like trusting Jones knowing he’s so brittle and not as explosive, but the late-round price tag isn’t much of a deterrent.

Treylon Burks, Titans: The rest of the world is trashing Burks’ Fantasy value, but I continue to like his fit with Tennessee. He had quick footwork in his comebacks to Willis and then adjusted to a high throw as soon as he turned around. He showed some nice speed on his longer routes as well as on his grab for a catch-and-run touchdown in the red zone. That happened after he hurt his wrist, by the way. My theory: The Titans played him a lot in the preseason to make sure his effort and conditioning are as good as possible. I like that I can draft him later than when I did back in July. At 100th overall, he’s a promising receiver I’m willing to be patient with.

Robert Woods, Titans: The veteran receiver hasn’t lost anything when it comes to footwork and technique. And he’s still a tough cat in the run blocking game. But he did have a hard time separating from coverage with his speed. Woods might be a better receiver against zone coverage rather than man, which might be a problem if defenses play more man against the Titans because they want to compete against Derrick Henry. If Woods is going ahead of Burks, I’d rather chance it on Burks.

Skyy Moore, Chiefs: Once again, Moore showed off a quick first step off the snap with acceleration after to get open. He used stutter-steps not only in a stop-go pattern but again to flip hips back to the quarterback. He can get open against man coverage and zone coverage, and he also dropped a really  good block on a running back screen. Point is, he could be a primary receiver for the Chiefs once Andy Reid gets comfortable with his lack of experience. I like drafting Moore in Round 10-plus, but I know I need to be patient with him.

Romeo Doubs, Packers: Swift footwork in his route bought him space against a cornerback, and he’s adept at getting open on in-breaking routes, but I worry about Doubs’ second gear, especially against man coverage down the field. He also did a little too much dancing on a screen pass when he was lined up in the slot. I like the talent a lot but it might be too big for him to start right away. And once Christian Watson gets up to speed, wouldn’t Doubs have to wait longer to contribute? I’m nervous taking Doubs, even with a late pick, because he might not pay off for a while.

Dynasty/deep deep sleeper receivers

David Bell, Browns: I can’t say Bell was overly impressive in his movements against Chicago, but if he’s going to man the slot for Cleveland he should see some decent target volume on some (most?) weeks. Bell’s positives? He was good at finding holes in the zone, ran routes with solid feet and paused to vary speed and keep defenders on their toes. I liked that, but I didn’t love that he didn’t seem to run away from anybody. He has a shot if he can earn some targets.

Dante Pettis, Bears: Do you remember this guy? Can you believe he’s still in the league? Not only is he still in the league, but he was running great routes and displaying excellent timing with Fields on a comeback route and then ran an excellent post-corner to completely displace a cornerback for a touchdown. Remember the name — Chicago needs a good receiver opposite Darnell Mooney and their evaluation of receivers figures to continue into the season.