Do you enjoy lying to strangers? I do. Not big lies, but little lies that have no impact on anybody. For instance, while walking the dog this morning, I wore a Stanford football T-shirt. It’s one of roughly 100 college football-related shirts or hoodies that I own because, well, I don’t know why I own so many. Maybe I’m just addicted to buying shirts.
But that’s not the point. While walking my dog, I came across a person walking their dog, and we stopped because our dogs wanted to sniff each other’s butts like dogs are addicted to doing. This is always awkward for me because I don’t enjoy making small talk with absolute strangers, but this person whose name I don’t know — the dog’s name was Bella — asked me about my shirt.
“You don’t see many Stanford football shirts around here, did you go there,” he asked.
“I played there, yeah,” I lied.
Why did I lie to this person? Why not? I’m big enough to pass as a former football player, and it seemed like a more straightforward answer than “no, actually, I just own a trillion different college shirts because I’m a weirdo.”
So, if you’re Bella’s owner and reading this, I’m sorry I lied to you. It was nothing personal.
- The Giants may have lost a starting offensive lineman for the season.
- The Eagles will be without a starting lineman of their own for a while, too.
- Tom Brady says the NFL is “a little softer than it used to be.”
- Why would the Timberwolves fire their team president just before the season begins?
Now let’s break down Thursday’s night’s slate.
All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook
🔥 The Hot Ticket
🏈 Panthers at Texans, 8:20 p.m. | TV: NFL Network
The Pick: Panthers -8 (-110): This is a tricky situation, as the line opened with Carolina favored by four before Houston lost Tyrod Taylor. It quickly moved to Carolina -7, where I got it earlier in the week, but it’s now been Carolina -8. I still like it there, but if it gets any larger than this by the time you’re able to get your bet in, I’d avoid it.
Part of the problem is that the public can have a more considerable influence on the line for spotlight games like this one. Right now, everyone sees a bad Houston team with a backup QB and pounds the Panthers, but there’s another stat out there to take notice of. In the history of Thursday Night Football, quarterbacks making their first career start have gone 10-0 ATS. That’s a trend you shouldn’t ignore — but it’s not enough to influence my feeling on this game.
Just because Houston has exceeded expectations doesn’t mean it has played well. The Texans have benefitted from some turnover luck as well as a game against one of the few teams that might be worst than it is. While I’m not here to tell you Carolina is a great team, I do think it’s good enough to get a playoff spot this season, so I’m laying the points with the Panthers.
Key Trend: Carolina has covered seven straight on the road.
Here’s what SportsLine is saying about the game: SportsLine’s Larry Hartstein is 30-18-3 in his last 51 against-the-spread picks involving the Texans, and he has released his pick for the Thursday Night Football game between Carolina and Houston.
💰 The Picks
🏈 College Football
Marshall at Appalachian State, 7:30 p.m. | TV: ESPN
The Pick: Under 58.5 (-110) — These teams are off to good starts to the 2021 season, and both have their defenses to thank for it. Appalachian State comes into tonight ranked 35th nationally in points allowed per possession (pre-garbage time) at 1.59, while Marshall is 54th at 1.88. Marshall has been more explosive offensively between the two, but some of that advantage will be lost playing on the road as Appalachian State has always been strong at home, where it’s 28-4 straight up since the 2016 season.
I also think Marshall’s lack of a run game will hurt it in this spot. The Herd average 5.1 yards per carry but run the ball only 44.2% of the time, ranking 106th nationally for highest rush frequency. The Mountaineers pass defense has looked strong to start the season and could limit the Herd in that area, and when App State does have the ball, it’ll be happy to take the air out of it and run clock.
Key Trend: The under is 8-5 in Appalachian State’s last 13 games as a favorite.
⚾ MLB
Astros at Angels, 9:38 p.m. | TV: MLB Network
The Pick: Astros -1.5 (-105) — I could get all technical here, but I don’t have to. The fact is that sometimes baseball teams approach the end of the season the same way I do. Earlier this week, I told you I’m ready for the regular season to end, and so are the Angels. They’ve been officially eliminated from the postseason already and have won two of their last 10 and lost six straight. They look like a team that’s ready for some rest and relaxation before getting guys like Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon back next spring.
Meanwhile, Houston is looking to finish off the AL West and make sure it gets home field in its likely series against the Chicago White Sox. I’m betting on the Astros playing with a purpose and the Angels playing like a team without one.
Key Trend: Of Los Angeles’ last 15 losses, 13 have come by at least two runs.
🔒 SportsLine Pick of the Day: Riley Gates has his finger on the pulse of golf, and he has revealed his best bets for this week’s Ryder Cup at Whistling Straits.
🏈 Thursday Night Prop Parlay
Let’s get kind of stupid with a multi-prop parlay for tonight’s NFL game paying +390.
- Sam Darnold Under 262.5 passing yards (-115)
- Davis Mills Over 0.5 interceptions (-190)
- Brandin Cooks Over 66.5 receiving yards (-105)
