For many teams, their record accurately portrays how good they are. For others, however, they look a lot different than their win and loss total.
Some are actually playing a lot better than their record suggests, while others may not be the real deal, even if their winning percentage makes them seem like it.
Here we will look at the worst teams at or above .500 to weed out who is not actually as solid of a squad. While none of these teams have a losing record, meaning they all have their share of bright spots, when we dig deeper there are cracks that may be exposed.
Then we will look at the best teams at or below .500 to break down the teams who are actually more talented than they seem. They all have rough losses or some things to work on, but overall potential is there.
Worst teams at or above .500
Bills
The Bills season was not looking good ahead of their Week 11 game against the Jets, to the point where missing the playoffs was more likely than not. They have lost two divisional games so far this season, and while they did defeat the Jets this week, out of all the teams over .500 they are still among the least impressive.
Even with this week’s win, they are still out of the playoffs, at 6-5, if the season ended today.
For the second season in a row, Josh Allen leads the league in giveaways, with 15 total this year, including 12 interceptions. From Week 5 through Week 10, the Bills had the worst turnover margin (-9) and their defense missed the most tackles (69).
It’s also never a good thing when you have to fire your offensive coordinator in the middle of the season, which is what Buffalo did after the Week 10 loss to the Denver Broncos.
They are significantly underperforming compared to expectations and their quarterback is struggling, putting them among the bottom of teams with a winning record.
Steelers
Somehow, the Steelers keep winning games. I credit head coach Mike Tomlin and a little bit of luck. The team is hard to read with some bright spots, but an overall feeling of struggling.
Kenny Pickett has the fewest total touchdowns (0.71) and turnovers (0.52) per start by any quarterback in his first two seasons since 2000 (with a minimum of 20 starts).
After 11 weeks, Pittsburgh is averaging 280.1 yards per game and 16.6 points per game (both 28th in the NFL). They currently have a point differential of -29 which led to the firing of offensive coordinator Matt Canada on Tuesday.
The Steelers were out-gained in nine straight games, but still managed to go 6-3 in those matchups. This week, they lost to the Browns, led by rookie quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson, and were once again out-gained on offense.
The Steelers had won nine straight games that have been decided by one score entering Sunday, which was the longest streak in team history. While that is impressive, it also means they are not dominant by any stretch. The ball bouncing one way instead of another on a play or two is determining their outcomes, as we saw in their most recent loss. The Steelers’ current way of winning is far from sustainable.
Saints
The Saints could win their division, but not because they are an incredible team. New Orleans is averaging 6.6 yards per pass, which is tied for seventh-worst in the league. Their first-down percentage is 29.6, which is eighth-worst in the league.
Their wins have come against the Tennessee Titans, who are currently 3-7, the Carolina Panthers, who have the worst record in the league, the New England Patriots, who have the worst record in the AFC, the Chicago Bears, who were 1-7 entering the matchup, and the 5-5 Indianapolis Colts.
Best teams at or below .500
Chargers
The Chargers are the definition of a middle-of-the-road team, but they have the talent and potential to be winning more games. Their offense is carrying the team, and with a few improvements, they really could be racking up wins.
Justin Herbert has 19 touchdowns, which is tied for the third-best among quarterbacks. The Chargers are also tied for second-fewest interceptions in the league as a team.
They are second offensive touchdowns in the league (20) and have the sixth-best first-down percentage (35.4). Their point differential currently stands at plus-10, which is 13th best in the league.
Los Angeles is seventh in total points (259) and eighth in points per game (25.9), and if it can stop allowing so many points, its offense is putting up the numbers it takes to win games.
Broncos
The Broncos are currently 5-5, and while the beginning of the season had some rough spots, like the 70-20 loss against the Dolphins, as of late they are improving.
Their last three wins are against the Vikings, the Bills, and a double-digit win against the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs. This season, quarterback Russell Wilson has 19 touchdowns and just four interceptions. He has not thrown a pick in his past four games.
So far, Wilson has the highest completion percentage of his career, along with the sixth-best completion percentage in the league (69%).
The offense has had some bright moments lately, including Wilson’s incredible pass against the Bills to Courtland Sutton, which had just a 3.2 completion probability, making it the most improbable completion in the league since at least 2017.
The run game could certainly use some work, and they are far from a perfect team, but they are once again fun to watch and are on the rise.
Commanders
The Commanders are 4-7 and third in a competitive NFC East. Quarterback Sam Howell does not have a ton of experience, but has managed to lead the league in passing yards (3,038).
They are coming off a rough loss to the Giants, but they have still shown some promise against playoff contenders.
They are second best in league in rushing first-down percentage (29.6) and are 12th in points per game (21.5). Washington has among the best fourth-down percentage in the league (57.1) and is third in most first downs (231).
Are they a playoff team? Let’s not go that far, but of all the under .500 teams, they are one with the talent to upset some good teams down the stretch.
